The US housing market is entering a “white swan collapse” – a visible, predictable breakdown with 44% of median household income needed for housing, rising delinquencies, and record-high new home inventory.
A 40-50% stock market crash by fall 2025 is predicted, driven by a housing-led recession, with ripple effects across credit markets, equity markets, banks, and portfolios.
The real economy shows signs of stress, with credit card delinquencies rising, auto loan defaults at a 13-year high, and real disposable income flatlining.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points in the near future, signaling worsening economic conditions and potentially leading to a 30% loss in the stock market.
Non-farm payroll numbers are questioned, with QCEW reports showing a 1-1.5 million difference in actual jobs created, suggesting potential incompetence or fraud in reporting.
Gold is forecast to reach $10,000 by 2030, driven by central banks’ recognition of gold as tier-one capital and its role in a potential new global monetary system.
Central banks are buying gold at record levels, indicating a growing interest in gold as a store of value and potential component of a new global monetary system.
Banking sector consolidation is expected in the next recession, with “shotgun marriages” and fewer banks, potentially facilitating the implementation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
CBDCs raise concerns about government control and surveillance, allowing for programmable, traceable, and centrally controlled digital dollars.
The US government has not audited gold reserves at Fort Knox since 1953, despite claims of holding over 8,000 tons of gold, raising questions about the true amount of gold held.
Speculation exists that the US is secretly accumulating gold in preparation for a monetary reset, potentially including some of the 143 tons of gold amassed by Gaddafi in Libya.
The current stock market bubble is led by 7 stocks making up 36-40% of the S&P 500, with small caps and the Dow Jones Industrial not confirming the rally, indicating underlying weakness.
Millennials are expected to lead a rebound in the housing market post-recession, as they are less leveraged than consumers during the 2008 crisis.
A global monetary reset and gold audit may reveal the truth about Fort Knox gold reserves, potentially reshaping the global financial landscape.
Technical analyst Chris Vermeulen predicts a 5-15% multi-week to multi-month correction in the stock market, potentially triggered by the NASDAQ hitting a 15% rally level.
Trend analysis and market sentiment are identified as the two most powerful tools for technical analysis, with current indicators suggesting an impending market reset and correction.
Gold is described as the ultimate sentiment barometer, with potential for 20% upside to $4,100 per ounce, while silver is projected to gain 13% to $40.70.
Bitcoin is in an uptrend with a strong chart pattern, poised for an explosive move to $136 in 5-6 days, but could face a significant correction afterward due to its correlation with the NASDAQ.
Vermeulen’s strategy involves scaling out of positions at target levels based on chart patterns and technical indicators, using inverse ETFs to hedge against potential losses.
His technical analysis focuses on 5-12 waves that roll through the market, using ETFs for trades lasting 1-2 months.
Two groups currently experiencing emotional stress: those with FOMO after missing the rally, and bearish investors seeing their accounts decline daily as markets continue to rise.
Panic selling and FOMO buying indicators are used to identify when the market is overbought or oversold, providing intraday trading opportunities.
Vermeulen discusses the impact of AI and robots on trading, suggesting they may eventually dominate certain aspects of the market.
Vermeulen emphasizes the importance of controlling emotions and adhering to a strategy, noting that most people fail at trading even with a winning strategy due to emotional interference.
The energy sector is identified as particularly vulnerable to a potential drop in oil prices, which could contribute to the predicted market correction.
The US economy is experiencing a “silent recession” with net job losses in the private sector for 6 consecutive months, based on data from 12 million US employers, not the small survey used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The labor differential has been declining for 7 months straight, the longest streak outside of recession, indicating worsening job market conditions.
Consumer confidence reports show declining intentions to take vacations, buy cars, homes, and major appliances, despite enthusiasm about falling inflation expectations.
The silent recession is crushing the middle class, with 80% of people earning $150,000 relying on credit after adjustable rate mortgage resets, while poor people are struggling even more.
The economy is experiencing a K-shaped recovery, but not traditional, as the wealthy are doing well while the rest of the economy struggles, with credit card delinquencies rising among high-income earners.
A credit crisis is unfolding with an 80% increase in defaults in private equity, big bank run rates, and wealthy bankruptcy attorneys in Bridgehampton indicating severe financial stress.
The Fed is stuck because lowering interest rates could wake up the 40% of the stock market owned by retirees over 70, potentially forcing them to sell stocks to make up for lost cash savings rates.
Liquidity fueling the market comes from fiscal dominance, with the government running high deficits and debt, but the money is not reaching the average worker.
The potential 25 basis point interest rate cut in September would be a small move but could fuel the already raging asset market, led by retail investors and followed by institutional investors.
The best way to fix the economy is through private job creation, not government intervention or tariffs, allowing companies to hire and invest without squeezing their margins.
The Fed’s actions are not aligned with the best interests of the economy or the American people, with policies designed to hide the true state of the economy and lacking transparency and accountability.
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