Silver crashed 32% on January 30, 2026 after hitting an all-time high above $120, with Fibonacci retracement analysis predicting a 38-50% pullback zone that was confirmed by actual price action.
Vermeulen expects a potential bounce back to $110-120 within days driven by bargain hunters, but will liquidate remaining positions if silver breaks below the $69 pivot low and 50% retracement level.
Silver could reach $130-140 if the rally continues, but parabolic price spikes in precious metals typically lead to 70-80% corrections requiring 500-700% rallies just to break even.
Precious metals are in the final inning of a bull market peak in 2026, likely to top out within 3 months before entering a multi-month to 3-year bear market.
Vermeulen identifies 4 market stages: euphoria (current phase), anxiety, denial (falling prices), and optimism (bottoming), expecting a financial reset in 2026 with falling markets creating buying opportunities.
Vermeulen advises waiting for the financial reset before deploying large capital to buy undervalued assets like REITs, dividend funds, and stocks that could rally for 5-10+ years post-crash.
The current rally is driven by emotional sentiment and mass market participation with investors chasing prices, while extreme sentiment levels where negative comments provoke strong reactions indicate a topping phase.
Panic selling index spikes usually signal a short-term market low and potential bounce, while FOMO indicator spikes showing overly greedy investors often precede market collapses.
A 2008 government study linked 8,100 suicides directly to the financial crash and falling stock prices, highlighting the severe emotional impact and danger of financial loss.
Vermeulen’s strategy aims for the fewest trades catching the majority of moves with lowest volatility, detailed in his book “Asset Revesting” which explains an asset hierarchy moving to slower assets as markets worsen.
In bear markets, moving to cash or a strong currency like the dollar can be the best position, as precious metals like gold and silver will be hit hard during market sell-offs.
Vermeulen’s charts show silver’s uptrend intact despite pullbacks with moving averages sloping up and layered nicely, believing following the trend will be right more often than not.
Vermeulen recommends averaging into positions for small investors, while larger investors should wait for a reset to buy assets at fair or below fair value to maximize long-term gains.
Vermeulen emphasizes financial education and saving before investing or speculating as the first step, having managed his own money since age 27 when he semi-retired and built a dream home on the water.
During extreme volatility like COVID, silver premiums exploded with Silver Eagles trading at $10 over spot versus typical $3-5% over spot for coins and $0.50 below spot for 100 oz bars in calm markets, while small dealers offered bids as low as 50% of melt lacking hedging capability.
October lease rates skyrocketed to 100-200%, increasing carry costs for refiners and creating 8-10 week backlogs in buying metal back from dealers, fundamentally disrupting the supply chain.
During extreme market cycles (2008 crisis, COVID, current conditions), premiums and spreads widen to accommodate dealer and mint supply/demand imbalances, with price as the only mechanism to handle 5x volume increases.
Large dealers hedge inventory ounce for ounce enabling immediate liquidity, while small dealers absorb price fluctuations and face constraints from refiner backlogs (up to 30 days), limited cash balances, and inability to hedge while waiting for payment.
Texas Precious Metals operates the largest single insured facility (54,000 sq ft depository) insured by Lloyd’s of London, offering T+1 or T+2 liquidity with next-day air delivery, processing 5x increased buyback volume for high-net-worth clients.
Selling physical silver involves packaging, shipping, inventory verification, and payment delays (2-7 days), adding operational hassle compared to selling SLV or futures, especially during weather disruptions like ice storms affecting dealer operations.
Volatile markets introduce price concessions, logistics, shipping costs, insurance, and payment timing frictions that matter more than most investors realize when converting physical metal to cash.
Counterparty risk varies by storage method: ETFs hold metal in London or Canada (not U.S.), while Texas Precious Metals acts as bailee with the individual as party of record, providing protection against theft or existential events.
Having multiple selling options and strategic relationships with precious metals dealers is crucial for high-volume investors during volatile conditions when premiums and discounts fluctuate significantly, as demonstrated by 2021 silver squeeze.
In calm markets, selling occurs at or near spot price, but volatile markets increase premiums due to metal factor (extra silver in minted products), supply shortages, and increased demand affecting the entire distribution chain.
Texas Precious Metals focuses on lower volume, higher dollar amount transactions for higher net worth clients, prioritizing speed and efficiency over mass-market retail operations during stressed market conditions.
Foreign capital outflows from US markets pose a bigger risk than domestic passive flows, with potential for several trillion dollars to exit in a short period, severely tanking US asset prices as international investors grow skittish about overexposure to US stocks and bonds.
Japan, the world’s largest creditor nation with trillions invested in US markets, may implement tax incentives for capital repatriation (similar to South Korea’s recent tax holiday on US capital gains) to stabilize the cheap yen and bring money back home.
The US dollar faces a major breakdown, currently 15-35% overvalued against major currencies, with David Hay predicting the yen could appreciate to 120-125 per dollar in 2023 from 155 currently, signaling a potential bear market for the dollar.
Since COVID, $1.6 trillion has flowed into US equities versus only $400 billion into international equities, despite US underperformance, with this extreme inflow reaching 20-year S&P outperformance levels signaling a potential reversal ahead.
The US holds a rare net negative position in international investing, owing more overseas than owning, indicating reliance on net foreign savings to fund the economy—a position that has eroded since the post-World War II period.
High cash levels (3.2-2%) in the BofA/Merrill fund manager survey, one of the best correlating indicators with future market performance, signal potential corrections and bear markets ahead.
Fund manager underweighting in energy (less than 3% of S&P) combined with falling drilling activity suggests long-term price increases ahead as commodity breakouts in industrial metals and energy signal capital flows out of US markets.
Emerging markets and international markets, particularly in Europe, are emerging after 15 years of underperformance, with Chinese and emerging market equities breaking out and presenting opportunities for investors seeking returns outside the US.
David Hay’s Haymaker newsletter generated 46% annualized returns on buy ideas and 95% on trading alerts in 2024 by focusing on breakout stocks and hard asset plays like silver, uranium, and copper.
Gold’s breakout in early 2024, after years of sideways action, signals the end of its consolidation phase and the start of a new bull market, similar to the current situation in international markets.
Passive investing has become so powerful it creates inefficiencies in the market, allowing for mispriced assets and breakout opportunities that can lead to significant profits.
Trim profits in overperforming assets like gold/silver and buy on pullbacks to take advantage of inevitable reversals, even in strong bull markets, as Rick Rule and David Hay have done successfully.
Warren Buffett views price declines in assets he wants to hold as buying opportunities, as long as they remain in an uptrend, allowing acquisition of more at lower cost.
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