The Benner cycle points to 2026 as a parallel to 2007, suggesting significant corrections across real estate, stocks, and precious metals simultaneously.
Vermeulen forecasts a volatile 2026 with an 8-12 month pullback in precious metals and energy, creating strategic re-entry opportunities at lower valuations.
The VIX index trading near 52-week lows signals dangerous complacency, as historically low volatility readings precede sharp market reversals.
Historical 1970s parallels suggest gold and silver could experience 50% pullbacks before resuming upward trends, with silver potentially establishing a new floor at $45-$50 before rallying over the next 5-10 years.
Precious metals are currently in their last parabolic phase characterized by extreme volatility, requiring investors to adopt strategic risk management rather than passive holding.
A critical disconnect exists between rallying precious metals and the still-rising Magnificent Seven tech stocks, which haven’t experienced the typical pullback that precedes sustained precious metals rallies.
When the equity market begins selling off, particularly tech stocks, it will likely trigger a substantial correction in precious metals markets.
Vermeulen’s Asset Revesting framework advocates exclusively holding assets rising in value and actively rotating between stocks, bonds, currencies, and cash based on technical indicators rather than narratives.
Successful investing focuses on disciplined risk management and capitalizing on market movements rather than predicting exact tops and bottoms or clinging to traditional buy-and-hold approaches.
Current positioning recommends being bullish on gold, equities, and US dollar index while maintaining bearish outlook on oil and energy sectors based on price action signals.
The Fed’s reserve management purchases are functionally identical to money printing and quantitative easing, despite being labeled differently and not targeting duration or economic stimulation.
The Fed will expand its balance sheet to maintain bond and repo market liquidity regardless of above-target inflation, prioritizing market function over CPI targets to prevent core market breakdowns.
Fiscal dominance in developed markets means central banks prioritize backstopping government deficits over managing inflation, accelerating currency devaluation and creating a two-speed economy with persistent inflation.
The U.S. faces structural $2 trillion deficits even if the Supreme Court reduces the annualized $400 billion tariff revenue by challenging the President’s use of emergency powers for indefinite tariffs.
The K-shaped recovery benefits wealthy and older populations while younger, poorer families struggle with higher interest rates and mortgage rates, as most deficit spending flows to entitlements, defense, and debt interest.
Stocks are rolling over relative to gold and silver, with a 40-year unprecedented decoupling between consumer sentiment and stock market performance reflecting weak underlying conditions.
Developed markets in fiscal dominance exhibit emerging market-like characteristics, with stocks performing adequately in local currency but weak in gold terms.
Silver is undervalued compared to gold with the gold-silver ratio in the 60s versus historical lows of 30, offering potential for triple-digit prices driven by mining deficits and increased demand from solar and tech applications.
The Fed’s balance sheet expansion aligned with nominal GDP growth sets the stage for a bull market in commodities, as emerging markets increase energy and commodity consumption from a lower base with high populations.
Bitcoin and gold serve as bear assets with unique advantages of personal custody, providing liquidity and control during fiscal dominance and currency problems, unlike equities and bonds.
US shale is peaking with declining depletion rates and drilling efficiency, making longer-lived oil assets like offshore and oil sands preferred, while current prices don’t encourage rapid investment expansion.
Larger oil companies and pipeline firms with strong balance sheets can weather a flattish market by investing less, while the shift from balance sheet tightening to loosening may boost demand over time.
Tether invests in hard assets including gold, Bitcoin, and company equity expecting appreciation, while maintaining short-duration treasuries to back dollar-pegged liabilities.
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