Silver broke above a multi-year ceiling against gold in November, a level it had tested for years, triggering what Oliver’s momentum-based analysis identifies as a structural breakout that historically precedes vertical moves lasting a couple of quarters.
Oliver’s technical work projects silver reaching $300-$500 and gold hitting $8,000 within a couple of quarters, based on spread relationship analysis between the two metals showing silver is vastly undervalued historically.
Eric Sprada’s analysis factoring in money supply growth since 1980 and 2011 peaks suggests silver prices could reach well over $200 just to match the real buying power of those historical highs.
Money supply has increased 80-90% every decade over a human lifetime, creating decay in the money unit that the public doesn’t fully recognize despite its direct impact on inflation and asset prices.
The T-bond market and other Western world bonds are on an “ambulance stretcher” with potential nuclear panic looming if key support levels break, which could trigger wave effects across financial markets forcing central banks into drastic actions.
Years of price manipulation keeping a lid on silver created compression that will unleash a panic on the upside when the attempted barrier finally breaks, similar to a coiled spring release mechanism.
Technical analysis indicates oil could violently surge to the mid-$90s, representing a 50% increase from recent prices, which would trigger inflation awareness among consumers through visible gas pump price increases.
Oliver’s momentum-based analysis spots major structural breakouts long before traditional price charts catch up, with his track record including the famous 1987 crash call during his 40+ years of market technical work.
Rick Rule sold 80% of his physical silver to rotate into silver mining stocks because equities are discounting $40-45/oz while spot trades at $75-80/oz, creating a value arbitrage where stocks only need prices to hold steady versus physical requiring price increases for returns.
Rule prioritizes beta over alpha in silver miners, targeting producers and high-quality developers with certain mine construction economics at lower silver prices rather than chasing five or six baggers, leveraging his 50 years of experience as a durable competitive advantage.
Pan-American Silver presents attractive earnings leverage through undeveloped high-grade deposits in Guatemala and Argentina that could add significant value if political constraints to development are resolved.
Rule’s investment process involves writing 1.5-2 page memos covering investment case, liquidation value, risks, and sell triggers, believing the delta between price and value is where money is made in mining equities.
Big streaming deals are emerging where copper mines can raise capital by selling silver streams at 15x revenue multiples versus 6x for copper, with Rule projecting billions in streams to be written over the next 10 years as a financing mechanism.
Rule would only sell his gold if the US achieves a balanced budget, a clear path to reducing $39T debt and $120T in off-balance sheet liabilities, plus positive real yields of 1.5% over 8% inflation—conditions he views as unlikely.
The real purchasing power of the US dollar is headed inexorably lower, having lost 75% in absolute terms, while gold maintains purchasing power as traditional savings vehicles are destroyed.
Alternative energy investments of $6-11T over 40 years have only reduced fossil fuel market share from 83% to 81%, while energy demand is projected to double in 30 years, requiring more fossil fuels alongside other sources.
IEA revised peak oil demand from 2030 to 2060, while underinvestment in sustaining capital of $1-2B/day will weaken production in 2028-2029 despite high demand, increasing oil prices and net present value of producers.
Canadian oil and gas sector trades cheap versus US with 75% of remaining tier one locations undrilled, possessing geology, infrastructure, and rule of law, but hindered by idiotic policies despite future flows to Pacific markets and US supply.
Oil and gas companies generate free cash flow at current prices by cannibalizing past investments, but understanding full cycle costs and declining sustaining capital investments is crucial for future returns beyond short-term metrics.
Proper securities analysis in oil and gas requires examining proved undeveloped locations, drilled uncompleted wells, and recycle ratio rather than focusing on geopolitical factors like Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions, which have limited impact on overall supply.
America’s trade deficit collapsed from $1.6T to $350B (down to $29B monthly) between Biden’s last month and 2026, driven by $400B annualized export growth and $800B annualized import decline, marking the smallest deficit in two decades.
Export surges concentrated in industrial supplies, metals, and services while import drops hit consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, household goods, and clothing from China, indicating a fundamental restructuring of U.S.-China trade patterns.
Entire industries including semiconductors and cars are reshoring to America, mirroring Japanese manufacturers’ response to Reagan-era tariffs, as Trump’s tariffs successfully curbed imports while maintaining U.S. export access to all trade partners.
Tariff inflation was absorbed by foreign exporters rather than American consumers, allowing the U.S. to reduce imports without triggering retaliatory market closures against American goods.
The 2026 U.S. economy entered a big boom phase with exports driving growth and industrial reshoring, while Chinese exporters failed to capture expected benefits from the trade restructuring.
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