Kenny argues that the launch of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s gold clearing and settlement system marks the beginning of the end of Western paper-market manipulation of gold and silver prices, because linking settlement to HKEX futures means participants will expect real physical metal on contract expiry, choking off naked shorting and rehypothecation. She points to HKEX waiving fees on US dollar gold futures for a year, which doubled its one-day futures trading record immediately, as proof Hong Kong is serious about becoming the international price setter for precious metals. She frames this as one piece of a sanction-exempt, blockchain-based infrastructure outside US control, alongside a BRICS gold corridor including a settlement vault in Saudi Arabia to settle oil in gold, all pointing toward a currency reset with gold back at the center of the monetary system.
Hong Kong’s gold clearing launch: HKEX’s new clearing and settlement system ties futures to physical delivery, which Kenny says will limit banks’ ability to naked-short gold and silver and pressure Western spot prices higher over time. She calls it the biggest step yet toward ending the New York/London pricing monopoly.
Paper vs. physical manipulation: Rehypothecation lets banks issue many paper claims on the same physical ounces, making supply look far larger than reality and suppressing spot prices, with billions in contracts changing hands with no metal delivered. Banks have been fined for spoofing paper contracts overnight to crash prices, and she says it still happens today.
Record futures response: After HKEX announced it would waive fees on US dollar gold futures for a year, one-day futures volume doubled the prior record, and HKEX stated outright it aims to be the international price setter for precious metals.
Sanction-proof architecture: The system runs on its own blockchain outside Western control, so the US cannot cut participants off the way it blocked Russia from SWIFT and froze its reserves after the Ukraine invasion.
Currency reset thesis: Kenny says central banks are stockpiling record physical gold because a reset is coming in which the dollar is devalued and gold returns to the center of the monetary system, with Asian premiums over Western spot already signaling the divergence.
Neumeyer says silver will never trade below $50 again in our lifetime, arguing the move through $50 to $70 was real physical buying while the spike from $70-80 to $120 was pure bank short covering that left banks in enough distress that they called miners, including First Majestic, begging for physical metal. He calls COMEX and the LBMA “part of the system” run by the banks and says flatly “the whole thing is a scam,” with roughly 2 billion ounces of paper silver trading daily (Andy Schectman thinks double that) against 860 million ounces mined annually, flat production for 10 years, consumption up from about 800 million to 1.3 billion ounces, and six straight years of deficits that would take ten First Majestics to fill. He predicts no full retracement (mirroring copper’s path from $4.50 to $2.50 to $5), sees the June low as in, expects mining M&A to accelerate in 2027-2028, and wants mining CEOs to build their own pricing mechanism outside the banks.
“Never below $50 again”: Neumeyer says silver won’t see sub-$50 in our lifetime, maybe an intraday break at most, and that the market has been basing healthily in the mid-$50s to $60s for a couple of months. He models it on copper, which corrected from $4.50 to $2.50 but never retraced fully and now sits at $5.
Banks caught short: The $70 to $120 leg was bank short covering under real stress, with European and US institutions calling First Majestic for physical; the company sold from its vaults at the highs to bail one buyer out. Today’s COT reports show last year’s massive short position is gone because “we woke the banks up.”
Paper-to-physical distortion: Around 2 billion ounces of paper silver trade daily against 860 million ounces mined per year, a ratio he puts near 300 to 1, and he calls COMEX/LBMA a bank-run scam. Mining is the only industry that can’t price its own product, and he wants CEOs to fill a room and create their own pricing mechanism.
Structural deficit: Supply has been stuck near 850-860 million ounces for a decade while consumption grew to 1.3 billion, six years of deficits deep; even $100 silver wouldn’t dent supply because it takes 10 years of high prices to incentivize new production.
First Majestic position and M&A outlook: The company holds about $1.3 billion in cash, roughly 500,000 ounces in its vault, and produces about 32 million silver-equivalent ounces a year from four Mexican mines. He expects sector M&A to accelerate in 2027-2028 once executives accept $4,000 gold and $50+ silver as the new floor.
Prins argues the “real assets lockout” has already begun: nations are weaponizing chokepoints in commodity supply chains (China restricting sulfuric acid needed for copper processing after the US finally added copper and silver to its critical minerals list in November 2025), and this hard-asset super cycle is accelerating under the headlines. She stands by her firm’s $6,000 gold call for year-end, notes China has cut its Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to $620 billion while gold has passed Treasuries as central banks’ top reserve asset, and says the US, with $40 trillion in debt it has made no attempt to reduce since the financial crisis, will ultimately force the Fed under Kevin Warsh to cut rates to service it. Her portfolio takeaway is that Wall Street is doing the commodity deals first and changing client allocation guidance second (Morgan Stanley telling clients to shift from 60/40 to 20% bonds, 20% commodities), so investors should position alongside the big money in a long-term commodity super cycle rather than fight it.
Real assets lockout: Countries are locking rivals out of specific supply-chain chokepoints, like China restricting sulfuric acid needed to process copper right after the US tariffed copper and added it and silver to its critical minerals list in November 2025. Prins says this escalation from “uprising” to “lockout” is speeding up the super cycle.
$6,000 gold and reserve shift: Prins Sights stands by its $6,000 year-end gold prediction after the $5,500 January high, driven by structural central bank demand; gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the top central bank reserve asset, and China’s Treasury holdings have fallen from $1.3 trillion to $620 billion with no reversal coming.
$40 trillion debt and the Warsh Fed: The US pays interest before anything else, taxes could never dent the debt (she says it would take nearly 100% of paychecks), and the Fed’s balance sheet has grown over the past six months because it is the only backstop. She reads Warsh’s dropped forward guidance as a power move that preserves flexibility to cut rates once Iran-driven oil inflation fades from the $138 highs.
Silver’s paper distortion: The SLV ETF alone paper-trades about 5 billion ounces a year against roughly 800 million ounces mined, amid six years of deficits; from her mile-and-a-half-deep visit to Aya Gold & Silver’s pure-play Moroccan mine, she stresses how brutally hard physical supply is to replace.
Follow the big money: Wall Street hit an 18-year high in base-metals M&A deals last year and is staffing up commodity desks, and Morgan Stanley’s shift of client guidance to 20% commodities came after it positioned in the deals. Since 1992, $100 in cash lost 60%, the S&P returned 10x, and an average junior gold miner returned 100x.
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