The US fiscal deficit is largely driven by demographics and debt accumulation, making it sticky and entrenched in the system, with interest expense tied to rates out of government control.
America’s trade deficit is a cumulative trillion-dollar issue, spending about $1 trillion annually on imports, primarily due to its reserve currency status.
Reshoring manufacturing in the US faces extreme challenges, requiring 10-15 years of testing, building, significant environmental concessions, and rebuilding energy infrastructure.
China’s 90% control of global rare earth supply creates a “rare earth lever” problem for the US, putting a full stop on high-tech manufacturing and equipment production.
The Strait of Hormuz is a significant lever in global trade, with 25% of world’s oil and 20% of gas passing through, giving Iran potential leverage over global energy markets.
The US can borrow political will from Saudi Arabia for rare earth competitiveness through sophisticated realpolitik moves, bypassing public opinion and environmental concerns.
The US is entering a 5-year bear cycle for the dollar, potentially benefiting emerging markets like Brazil, Southeast Asia, and China in a pattern similar to the 2003-2007 cycle.
The US can employ the “iikido principle” to counter China’s influence by diversifying rare earth sources, building a large stockpile, and supporting neutral reserve currencies like gold or bitcoin.
The US trade deficit is a root cause of rising populism and worker discontent, a cumulative issue building for 45 years as the country became increasingly de-industrialized.
High per capita healthcare costs contribute to the US’s high labor costs, making it difficult to compete with countries like China in manufacturing.
Addressing the fiscal deficit is politically challenging due to the unpopularity of reducing social security and Medicare spending.
Rebuilding the US domestic industrial base requires a multi-decade effort and trillion-dollar investment in manufacturing, energy, and human capital.
The US faces a complicated situation with China, balancing multiple conflicting interests in trade, currency, and resource management across different administration groups.
The Epstein case could potentially overturn the US government and power structure if high-level officials and billionaires involved in illicit activities are exposed, implying something insidious, dangerous, and beyond comprehension.
The US Army Corps of Engineers is actively rebuilding Israeli defense structures with billions of shekels, including infrastructure for new refueling aircraft, helicopters, and naval commando units.
Anti-American sentiment is rising globally, exemplified by “kill a gringo” signs in Mexico City, indicating a less friendly and riskier world for Americans living abroad.
The US is losing its status as the best place to invest, with foreigners pulling capital out due to concerns about Trump’s unpredictable policies and seeking alternative investments like gold or European stocks.
The US national debt is split 50/50 between American entities and foreigners, with defaulting potentially punishing enablers of government actions while freeing future generations.
M2 money supply has grown for 19 consecutive months, with inflation at 4.5% year-over-year, suggesting higher inflation is needed to address the debt crisis.
The possibility of a genuine civil war in the US exists, potentially manifesting as an informal guerrilla war with early signs like targeted attacks on ICE agents.
The American middle class is shrinking dramatically, with the standard of living destroyed and higher inflation expected to address economic challenges.
Citizenship by investment programs offering passports as backup options are becoming obsolete, facing scrutiny and potential loss of visa-free travel to the EU and US.
Foreign governments and institutions are increasingly reluctant to hold US government debt denominated in dollars, seeking alternatives to protect their capital from domestic government actions.
The BRICS nations are creating a decentralized, gold-backed financial infrastructure outside US control, potentially challenging the dollar’s reserve status.
A new payment system independent of Swift is being developed, offering 98% reduction in fees and utilizing blockchain technology for instant verification.
China is leading efforts to internationalize the yuan and create multi-jurisdictional gold vaults, enabling trade settlement in gold rather than dollars.
The bond market’s weakness due to lack of demand is leading to higher rates, further breaking the real estate market and making bonds unaffordable for pensions and insurance companies.
The US government’s $2.5 trillion deficit and desire to raise the debt ceiling contrasts with the rest of the world’s pivot away from the dollar.
The stock market is overvalued with high retail participation, while institutional sellers have been selling over $2 billion per week since June.
Gold and silver are undervalued relative to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with gold at an all-time high in nominal terms but not in relation to the Dow at 44,000.
The Belt Road Initiative aims to industrialize resource-rich countries, settling trade outside the dollar instead of buying treasuries.
The real estate market is broken due to high interest rates and lending standards, making it unaffordable for the next generation to buy starter homes.
Insiders are selling equities and buying commodities, with the largest retail participation in the stock market ever, including at the .com bubble.
The value of the dollar is massively losing value due to continuous printing, masking inflation and distorting the CPI.
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