Hemke, recording July 7 with gold at $4,155 and silver at $61 (roughly half its $121 peak), says he’s fairly confident the late-June washout marked the bottom of peak pessimism and that risk-reward for the rest of the year is skewed heavily toward reward, though he allows they could wash it out another 10% to around $3,600 gold. His core thesis is that gold is the unchanging measuring stick: it went from $1,100 in 2015 to $2,000 six years ago to $4,200 today purely because the currency is being devalued, US debt is compounding exponentially at $40 trillion with roughly $10 billion a day in deficit spending, M2 is growing at its fastest pace in 4 years, and the only way to service the debt is more cash and negative real rates, which is why gold “has to” hit $8,000 within 5 years. He dismisses Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkishness as posturing to prove he isn’t Trump’s sock puppet, says the Fed’s only real mandate is to grease the system with cash, and expects Washington to return to the run-it-hot, grow-out-of-the-debt narrative that was in place before the Iran war derailed it.
The bottom is likely in: Hemke believes late June marked the low amid washed-out sentiment and peak hawkishness, with the rest of 2026 skewed toward reward, though he concedes a final 10% flush to about $3,600 gold is possible; even there, gold would still be about 10% higher than a year ago after gaining 25% in 2024 and roughly 60-65% last year.
$8,000 gold from exponential debt: With $40 trillion in US debt compounding, near $300 billion in monthly deficit spending per the Treasury statement, and M2 growing its fastest in 4 years, Hemke says the math dictates $8,000 gold within 5 years; gold itself never changes, it just takes ever more devalued dollars to buy the measuring stick.
Warsh is bluffing: He calls Warsh’s tough talk theater to prove independence from Trump, says the Fed’s one real mandate is greasing the system with cash, and Marcus quips aliens are more likely to attend a Chiefs game than Warsh hiking rates meaningfully.
Gold revaluation on the table: He connects Bessent’s “monetize the balance sheet” comments and the Bitcoin Reserve Act bills to a possible revaluation of Treasury gold certificates from $42 to market (~$4,200), handing the Treasury a trillion dollars deficit-neutral, though he cautions COMEX wouldn’t necessarily trade at any decreed price since 90% of the market is derivatives.
War scrambled the trade: The Iran war spiked inflation, turned real rates positive, rallied the dollar, and triggered mass futures dumping — dots Hemke admits he failed to connect despite warning in February that action was coming after the Venezuela episode and Rubio’s press conference; silver crashed from ~$96-97 the night it broke out.
Hanke says the secular gold bull market is intact with a peak around $6,000, the recent pullback being a product of a strong dollar, higher rates, and a temporary pivot into tech, while near-universal central bank buying, led by China, puts a floor under the price. He warns “the inflation genie is out of the bottle and it’s not going to be put back in”: Divisia M4 money supply is growing about 6.7% year-over-year, above his 6% “golden growth rate” consistent with 2% inflation, CPI is already 4.2%, the Fed shifted from quantitative tightening back to quantitative easing in December, and since interest rates follow inflation, the 10-year at 5.1% is headed higher, making him flatly bearish on bonds while recommending investors pivot into commodities for a new super cycle. He notes 22% of US taxes now go just to servicing past debt, which exceeds defense spending and thus violates Ferguson’s law (when interest expense exceeds defense spending, the empire goes south), calls deficit-financed debt intergenerationally immoral, and reveals he’s advising the Trump administration on expanding dollar use worldwide via currency boards, which have never failed since 1848.
$6,000 gold call: The secular bull market is intact and should peak around $6,000; the pullback came from a strong dollar, higher rates, and rotation into tech, while central bank buying, especially China’s, floors the price and makes this a good buying time.
Inflation genie loose: Divisia M4 is growing about 6.7% year-over-year versus Hanke’s 6% golden growth rate for 2% inflation, CPI sits at 4.2% (over double target), and QT flipped back to QE in December; accelerating money supply is fuel for inflation and asset prices.
Bearish on bonds: The 10-year, at 5.1% on July 7, follows inflation expectations set by the market, not the Fed, and is going higher; he’d take 5% on T-bills but says stay completely away from the long end, and pivot portfolio weight into commodities for the super cycle.
Ferguson’s law breached: About 22% of taxes now service past debt, an amount exceeding defense spending, which historically signals an empire going south; he calls deficits immoral because taxpayers who never voted on the debt now service it.
Warsh and currency boards: Hanke hopes new Fed chair Warsh adopts the quantity theory of money that Powell explicitly rejected, but notes Warsh hasn’t committed; meanwhile Hanke is advising the Trump administration on dollar-based currency boards to replace central banks (as he urged in Venezuela, now at 450% inflation), an institution with a perfect record since 1848.
Gammon argues that most gold-conference narratives conflate two separate things: the dollar crashing against goods and services, which has been in free fall for decades and is near-certain to continue, and the dollar crashing against other currencies, which is highly variable, with the DXY swinging from roughly 120 in 2000 to 70 in 2011 and back near 100 today. He rejects the claim that gold is the best measurement of the dollar, saying charts show gold’s correlation to the DXY, CPI, debt, and deficits is at best a coin toss (inflation fell from 2000-2011 while gold went nearly straight up), and the only reliable short-term driver he’s found is counterparty risk, while over long periods gold unequivocally holds its value, still buying the same suit it did in 1900. His contrarian conclusion is that if the US empire is in decline, the catalyst could be the dollar going up, not down, since the dollar can appreciate massively against assets, as it did against the S&P 500 in the GFC and housing from 2006 to 2012.
Two different dollar crashes: The dollar falling against goods and services is a decades-long near-certainty, but the dollar against other currencies is a separate, variable question people wrongly conflate; the DXY went 120 (2000) to 70 (2011) to nearly 100 today while domestic purchasing power went straight down.
Gold’s correlations are a coin toss: Chart gold against the DXY, CPI, US debt, debt-to-GDP, or deficits and correlations appear and vanish; 2000-2011 saw disinflation yet gold rose almost continuously, and right now gold is nearly inversely correlated to oil.
Counterparty risk drives short-term gold: The only factor Gammon finds consistently moving gold short-term is counterparty risk, with a bias to hold metal when that risk is high.
Gold keeps you rich, not gets you rich: An ounce bought a suit in 1900, buys one today, and he’d bet it will in 100 years; gold belongs in every portfolio to stay rich, not to get rich.
A rising dollar could sink the empire: Against assets the dollar can appreciate hugely (the S&P’s GFC collapse, housing 2006-2012), so a declining America could see a strengthening currency as the catalyst of decline rather than a crashing one.
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