Lundin argues the roughly 40% drop in gold miners (GDX) this year was a “classic washout” that resets the bull market rather than ending it, and he believes the bottom likely came on June 24th when gold dropped through $4,000 and posted a death cross, calling it capitulation. He contends this cycle differs from past ones because Western traders now set the price while central banks and China “take the price” as support, and he projects gold reaching $6,000–$8,000 by cycle’s end, a move that would imply an eventual monetary reset reattaching the dollar to gold. He asserts Fed Chair Warsh was installed by Trump specifically to lower rates—calling his hawkish press conference “rehearsed”—because the debt math forces easy money regardless of hawkish minutes.
Washout vs. breakdown: Lundin identifies June 24th—when gold broke $4,000 and flashed a death cross—as likely capitulation, noting he expects a mid-July to mid-August seasonal bottom and pointing to the 2000s bull market where the XAU rose 5.5x despite repeated 25–40% drops along the way.
Western traders now drive price: He argues the key difference this cycle is that Western investors make the price via furious rallies and stomach-turning drops, while central banks and China have shifted from driver to price support, buying because “it’s on sale.”
$6,000–$8,000 target and reset: Lundin projects gold to $6,000–$8,000 from its 2015 base near $1,050, noting the 1970s bull ran gold up 24-fold (which would imply the mid-$20,000s), and argues cycle’s end likely entails a debt-crisis reset reattaching gold as a governor on money printing.
Fed politics and rate cuts: He calls Warsh’s task force “bureaucratic cover” and his inflation-fighting press conference “pre-approved, rehearsed,” citing Trump’s uncharacteristic silence as proof; he argues hawkish minutes only delay, not derail, because debt and deficit math demands lower rates ahead of the midterms.
Inefficiency and washed-out sentiment: Lundin says sentiment is as washed out as he’s seen since 1999–2000, describes liquidity “sloshing” into the small metals “lagoon” for outsized effect, and calls the sector’s inefficiency “a feature, not a bug” that rewards individual investors who do the research.
Rule’s central message is “buy you”—invest in yourself and knowledge before any commodity—but he makes his strongest conservative case for gold, arguing US 10-year Treasuries yielding 4.6% actually lose ~4% annually against a dollar depreciating 8–10%, while gold has compounded 8% since 2000 and maintains purchasing power (an ounce still buys a fine suit). He contends gold’s US market share is just 0.5% versus a four-decade mean of 2%, so reversion to mean would quadruple demand, and predicts the dollar will lose 75% of its remaining purchasing power over the next decade as it did in the 1970s. He warns of a structural oil crisis from ~$1.5 trillion (heading to $2.5 trillion) in underinvestment that will bite around 2029–2030, and details why he sold his silver into a “hyperbolic” chart.
Gold’s market-share reversion: Rule argues gold and precious-metals securities represent only 0.5% of US savings/investment assets versus a four-decade 2% mean, so reverting would quadruple demand; he notes 1981’s share was ~7%, and at that level “there isn’t enough gold on Earth” to meet demand.
The downside case and conditions to sell: Rule says he’d only sell gold if the US balanced its budget, addressed $40 trillion in debt and $120 trillion in unfunded entitlements, and delivered positive real rates (a 10% 10-year, 12% mortgages), which he deems “functionally nil” within 10 years.
Silver as speculation: Rule confirms he sold his silver near $85 (implied) after seeing a “hyperbolic”/hockey-stick chart, reallocating into physical gold (savings), 25% into oil stocks, and 50% into silver stocks priced as though silver were $42, giving downside cushion; he warns primary silver miners producing at $35/oz compete with BHP producing at 50–60 cents.
Oil’s structural underinvestment: Rule argues the industry underinvests ~$1 billion/day in sustaining capital (now ~$1.5 trillion cumulative, heading to $2.5 trillion), that the 2026 spike from $55 to $115 was artificial/war-driven, and the structural shortage biting ~2029–2030 can’t be cured by an armistice; he says peak oil demand won’t come in 2030 but rather 40 years out.
Battle Bank: Rule pitches his seventh bank as a “community bank” for a gold-believing, libertarian community, offering interest on deposits, self-directed IRAs, savings in 20 currencies, and lines of credit against gold/silver/platinum/palladium collateral—noting he’s made gold loans for 25 years without a single payment in arrears.
Piepenburg argues gold’s 2026 volatility—from $5,600 down to barely above $4,000—is not weakness but “reloading,” likely engineered by the CME/COMEX/LBMA raising margins to push price down and let central banks stack cheaply, and he holds “complete conviction” gold goes much higher over the coming years. He contends the real story is a “sea change in global collateral,” with China and Hong Kong building a physical settlement system to displace the “paper game” in New York and London, and central banks stacking gold 5x since the dollar was weaponized in 2022. He calls the new Fed chair’s hawkishness a false front masking “backdoor non-QE QE” and Basel 3 violations, and insists wealth must be measured against gold—the S&P is up 60% since Q4 2021 in dollars but down 40% in gold terms.
Gold is “reloading,” not failing: Piepenburg argues the drop from $5,600 to ~$4,000 mirrors the 1970s (28 all-time highs but five 20% drawdowns, then an 8x run), and that if he ran the CME/LBMA he’d raise margins to push price down and reload bullets cheaply—separate from forced selling by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and levered-ETF “tourists.”
Sea change in collateral, west to east: He contends gold as net-settlement collateral superior to Treasuries is now the discussion in rates/credit/currency markets, citing 200+ tons of central bank buying for 10–11 straight quarters and Hong Kong’s vault increasing 10x as China builds a physical settlement system.
Mystery buyer and bank accumulation: Piepenburg speculates the sub-$4,000 buyer is JP Morgan, sovereign wealth funds, and central banks taking gold from New York warehouses onto balance sheets without reporting; he notes Turkey swapped gold for oil via Zurich during the war but wanted its gold back, not Treasuries.
False Fed narrative and hidden liquidity: He argues Warsh is violating Basel 3 accords, remonetizing capital reserves, and running “billions and trillions of backdoor non-QE QE” via the TGA and reverse repo, while stablecoins (140 companies, DoorDash, Visa) are used to absorb unloved Treasuries—all masking a debasement the “strong dollar, positive real yields” story hides.
Measure wealth in gold, not paper: Piepenburg’s keynote thesis is “gold is a necessity, not a debate,” stressing the dollar has lost 99% versus gold since 1971 and 90% of wealth is held by the top 10% (“feudalism, not capitalism”); he notes gold has never gone mainstream because it’s the “anti-hero” to the dollar, deliberately ignored and never taught in schools.
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