Reporting from Deyang, China, Clive Thompson argues Hong Kong is one of the most attractive stock markets in the world: over five years the Hang Seng fell 14.19% while earnings rose 13.23%, versus the S&P 500 up 73.37% on just 18.67% earnings growth, leaving Hong Kong at 13.4x trailing earnings against 32.6x for the S&P, with a 3.27% dividend yield triple the S&P’s 1.03%. He is funding the move by cutting US semiconductor exposure to under a quarter of what he held, predicting the cyclical chip sector will lose 50% or more when supply overtakes demand, though he caps Hong Kong at 5-8% of his portfolio because Chinese political risk could lock up shares the way Russian stocks were frozen. He names all 20 of his Hong Kong holdings, including BYD, Tencent (held via Prosus at a discount), CNOOC, Ping An, PopMart, and the Green Tea Company, and sees roughly 50% upside over two to three years as the P/E reverts from 13x to 16-17x on top of forecast earnings growth.
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The valuation gap: Hang Seng down 14.19% in five years with earnings up 13.23%; S&P 500 up 73.37% with earnings up 18.67%, a roughly 90% performance spread he says makes no sense, with trailing P/Es of 13.4x versus 32.6x and 2027 earnings growth forecasts converging (16.4% HK vs. 17.4% US).
Funding source — the semiconductor exit: He has cut his US tech to less than a quarter of prior holdings, arguing semiconductors are a cyclical business priced as if today’s growth lasts forever, and expects 50%-plus losses in some chip names when the cycle turns.
The 20-stock list: Holdings include 361 Degrees, Bosideng, China Medical Systems, CNOOC, BYD (“selling significantly more cars than Tesla, making significantly more profit” at a fraction of the multiple), Jiangxi Copper, Ping An, Luk Fook, PopMart, Yadea, Tencent via Prosus, and Alibaba.
Green Tea Company deep dive: His newest buy (symbol 6831) is a ~800-outlet restaurant chain with zero debt, 1.2 billion cash, 38.9% EPS growth last year, 23.3% forecast annual growth, an ~8% dividend plus a special dividend in August — but it trades below its May 2025 IPO price, so stale IPO holders and lockup expiries cap the near-term upside.
Political risk and the property crash: He caps China exposure below 10% because sanctions could freeze holdings like Russian stocks; the Evergrande-led property collapse destroyed household confidence in investing, but he judges that crisis behind us, implying a return to a 16-17x P/E and ~50% total upside in two to three years.