Gromen argues the US attacked Iran for a blend of reasons including a defense of dollar hegemony (Iran being the third yuan-oil seller attacked after Venezuela and Russia), advice from Israel, and a “let the dog catch the car” strategy to discredit neocons, but that it is backfiring as yuan CIPS payments hit all-time highs of 14 trillion yuan (~$2 trillion) in May while China’s exports rose 27% and corporate profits 20%. He contends an economic divorce between China and the US means “gold has to soar,” that the post-1971 dollar structure is ending (not the dollar itself) as gold returns as a neutral reserve asset, and that Bessent’s invocation of “Hamiltonian economics” signals gold is coming back into the system, implying much higher gold prices and a lower dollar. He warns the US is at its highest combination of wealth inequality and “elite overproduction” since the late 1850s per Peter Turchin, sits at 20-22% cash and T-bills, and holds high gold and electrical infrastructure equities.
Why the US attacked Iran: Gromen lists Trump getting fooled into thinking it would be as easy as Venezuela, attempts to slow China (especially via helium for semiconductors, where the US and Qatar dominate), a “let the dog catch the car” move to recalibrate the Israel relationship, and accelerating US reshoring. He notes the five-month war was pitched by Trump on March 1 as four-to-six weeks.
Gold has to soar on China divorce: He argues China has set up offshore yuan clearing banks in every major gold hub (London, Switzerland, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong, Shanghai) so trade-surplus yuan can be recycled into gold, internationalizing the yuan. He predicts a pivotal “war on, gold up” day when people accept the conflict is lasting and shift yuan surpluses into gold.
Hamiltonian economics and the end of Bretton Woods II: Gromen says gold has been returning as a neutral reserve asset for at least 12 years as central banks grow gold while treasury reserves stay flat. He cites Bessent’s New York Economic Club speech and WSJ op-ed on Hamiltonian economics as signaling that tariffs and industrial policy are incompatible with the post-1971 dollar, forcing the world to gold and potentially the greatest boom since WWII.
Elite overproduction and rising corruption: He describes a “loot the system” political class on both sides, citing Trump’s crypto launches and rug-pulls, and invokes Turchin’s metrics of wealth inequality and elite overproduction at their highest since the late 1850s before the Civil War. He points to Charlie Kirk’s and Brian Thompson’s assassinations and Mamdani’s rise as warning signals, referencing Eric Larson’s new book on the Civil War runup.
China superpower and portfolio: Gromen counters Peter Zeihan’s demographic-collapse thesis, arguing that if AI and robotics deliver, aging homogeneous nations like China, Japan, and Korea will be more politically stable than the heterogeneous US, EU, and UK. He holds 20-22% cash and T-bills, high gold, and electrical infrastructure, favors Japan for reshoring, and dismisses betting against China after repeated surprises like their AI progress.
Cook argues that despite gold pulling back from $5,000 to about $4,000, sentiment in the mining sector has swung from euphoric to overly cautious, and that with roughly $10 billion in junior financings (double last year) but the number of companies financed down 13%, money is concentrating in the best projects, which bodes well for future discoveries. He contends the long-term outlook for gold, silver, and copper is strong (central banks buying gold and selling treasuries, a coming copper deficit), and that he focuses on 20-100 million market cap juniors with projects that could be worth a billion and fit a major’s portfolio for buyout, having had four portfolio companies acquired last year. He expects gold to trade within $500 of current levels for the next year, highlights Talon Metals as his favored larger pick for its high-grade Minnesota nickel-copper-PGM discovery, and warns investors most underestimate resource-statement risk and metallurgy.
Sentiment versus fundamentals: Cook confirms sector sentiment flipped 180 degrees from euphoric at $5,000 to cautious now at $4,000 gold, invoking Rick Rule’s analogy of a shopper who won’t buy tuna at full price but buys it at a third off, while investors do the opposite with stocks. He sees the pullback as a reasonable time to leverage into companies.
Concentrated junior financing: He notes roughly $10 billion raised for juniors (twice last year) but with 13% fewer companies financed, meaning the “cream of the top” get funded while suspect projects struggle, which he reads as a healthy sign for future discoveries. Price-to-NAV for majors fell from about 1.6x last year to about 0.7x.
Buyout-ready projects: Cook targets explorers with assets that fit a major’s game plan, citing Rupert Resources in Finland (where Agnico Eagle bargained Rupert and Orion into a deal), Arizona Sonoran bought by Hudbay, and G Mining buying G2 in Guyana. He values proximity to existing operators so the acquirer avoids establishing a new workforce, contacts, and risk analysis in places like Kazakhstan.
M&A as a cycle signal: He agrees heavy M&A historically signals market tops, but says acquisitions over the past year have been “smart” and accretive rather than “stupid” ounce-adding deals, suggesting the top isn’t near. He confirms $4,000 gold is a strong incentive price since most companies run reserves at $1,800-2,200.
Common mistakes and Talon Metals: Cook warns investors underestimate the gap between inferred resources and actual reserves, and misjudge metallurgy (oxidized versus non-oxidized versus gold tied up in arsenic or silica). His one pick is Talon Metals (TLO), praised for a high-grade critical-minerals nickel-copper-PGM Minnesota discovery with US processing lined up in North Dakota, infrastructure, smart management, and permitting mostly in hand.
Chambers argues the recent gold and silver run was a “bubble rally” that always pulls back a long way, and that after calling both the top and the prior bottom, he now sees silver bottoming between $40 and $50 and gold around $35,000, at which point he will start dollar-cost-averaging back in, expecting a long sideways move possibly for a couple of years before a serious inflationary period drives prices up. He contends gold “is for war” and fell because China’s Xi fell out with the PLA and postponed or cancelled a Taiwan invasion previously expected around April-May, removing gold’s war use case, while the AI story means value lies not in models (the “tip of the iceberg” with no moat) but in the infrastructure beneath: chips, hard drives, power, and trusted incumbents like IBM. He warns physical silver traded at 70-80% of screen price when the chain choked, urges investors to plan their exit before buying, and laments the UK stock market has “withered away” over 25 years of misadministration, making cheap British tech takeover bait for Americans.
Bubble rally and bottom targets: Chambers frames the metals surge as a bubble that people believe all the way back down, targeting silver’s floor at $40-50 (the “basement,” roof $50, floor $40) and gold around $35,000, potentially lower toward $33,000, before a multi-year sideways move. He plans to start “stacking” and DCAing once silver drops under $50.
Gold is for war and the Taiwan reversal: He argues gold rises before a war as war-money and gets sold during one (as Russia and Iran are doing), and that its vertical ended when Xi and the PLA fell out at the start of the year, postponing a Taiwan invasion European military contacts had expected around April-May. With that use case diminished, the need for vast gold reserves evaporated.
AI value in infrastructure not models: Chambers says models are the tip of the iceberg with weak moats vulnerable to Chinese distillation (citing Moonshot’s Kimi K3 at a fraction of the cost), while value sits in chips, GPUs, hard drives, cabling, and air conditioning. He is buying cheap down-chain names like Cisco, HP, and IBM (whose asset is “trust”), and notes China has 250% more energy generation than America.
Physical silver liquidity trap: He warns that when silver collapsed, physical sold at 70-80% of screen price because the melt-down chain choked and dealers wouldn’t pay $120 for metal that might fall to $80 overnight. His advice on his Clem Chambers Alpha channel was to “get your exit sorted,” know how and where you will sell before buying, since ringing around when the market is high is too late.
UK market decline and value strategy: Chambers says the UK market withered over 25 years of misadministration, with a 0.5% stamp duty, a regulator that treats private investors as too stupid, and pension rules pushing funds into government bonds. He buys cheap low-PE British tech (like robotics-firm Ocado) that Americans take over, arguing a low-PE dividend portfolio delivers ~25% annual returns Buffett/Graham-style, and advises burned FOMO investors to either learn the lesson or stay away from markets entirely.
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