Rubino argues the metals are “long-term great, short-term who cares,” and says this may not be the best moment to stack physical because dealers — stranded with high-priced inventory after the price crash — have widened spreads and are charging $8-$10 premiums over spot on Silver Eagles. He recommends dollar-cost averaging into physical ETFs or mining-stock ETFs instead, calling gold and silver miners possibly the best opportunity ever given record free cash flow across three straight quarters, with big miners as potential doubles, mid-tiers as 3-5 baggers, and top explorers as 5-10 baggers. He flags the yen carry trade as a multi-trillion-dollar systemic risk, noting Japan’s debt at 250% of GDP, a compressing US-Japan yield spread now at 1.76 points (down from 4% in 2023), and warns that a blow-up could trigger a “short the US stock market” event.
Dealer premiums and stacking pause: Rubino says silver dealers are overcharging — $8-$10 premiums on a Silver Eagle — because the price crash stranded high-priced inventory and destabilized their business models. He advises pausing physical purchases and using physical ETFs or mining ETFs until premiums normalize.
Miners as the best opportunity: He calls this maybe the best time ever for gold and silver miners, citing three consecutive quarters of record cash flow funding dividends, buybacks, and accretive acquisitions. GDX is down ~30-35% from highs, GDXJ ~37%, SIL ~33%, and SILJ ~35% (40% top to bottom), which he sees as pent-up upside with Newmont’s Q2 report leading on July 23rd.
Precious metals seasonality: Rubino explains Asian wedding demand forces jewelers to buy raw gold and silver in the fall, historically lifting prices August through November, with July typically the seasonal bottom. He cautions seasonality is only one factor given the unresolved Iran war potentially spiking oil.
Yen carry trade risk: He warns the multi-trillion-dollar yen carry trade is unwinding as the yen tanks and Japanese yields rise, with the JGB 10-year at 2.7% and 30-year at 3.967%. Japan’s debt sits at 250% of GDP, and Rubino says a blow-up could take down peers and spark a “big short” against US stocks — noting CNBC mysteriously pulled its Japanese 10-year ticker.
Fed cornered by debt: With inflation north of 4% (twice target) and new Fed chair Kevin Warsh calling inflation “too elevated,” Rubino argues oil falling back to the 50s (from 68) could flush out commodity inflation and spare the Fed a hike. He says the US, like Japan, can’t raise rates far without turbocharging parabolic interest expense, making eventual QE and inflation “inevitable.”
Vermeulen takes the contrarian seat, revealing he sold gold above $5,000 and silver at $111, is sitting fully in cash, and is waiting to buy gold back at $3,600 after it broke below $4,000 for the first time since November. Using Fibonacci, he argues both gold and silver bounced at the 61.8% golden ratio and are now heading to their 100% measured moves — $3,600 gold and $40 silver — the exact points where euphoric FOMO buyers piled in, which the market loves to punish. He sees a US dollar breakout targeting 109 (a 9% move) pressuring metals, calls cash a legitimate position, warns of a coming flood of margin calls, and flags smart money rotating out of the Magnificent Seven into utilities as an early warning sign for stocks.
Sold high, waiting at $3,600: Vermeulen exited gold above $5,000 and silver at $111 and is now fully in cash, waiting to reload gold at $3,600, which he calls fair-to-undervalued. He’d rather buy back higher once a clear buy signal fires than sit in a dormant asset, prioritizing protecting time and capital over getting the lowest price.
Fibonacci targets down then up: He says gold’s 61.8% bounce points to a $3,600 measured move, with long-term upside of $8,000-$8,600 (a double), while silver targets $40 on the downside and $165-$175 long-term as a giant bull flag. Both charts, he argues, aim precisely at where emotional latecomers bought in.
Volatility is emotion, not algos: Vermeulen dismisses blame on manipulation and program trading, saying the violent pops and drops match the same emotional price action he’s seen in nearly 30 years of trading. He stresses risk management over prediction, citing his own past bankruptcy and blown-up accounts.
Dollar breakout and cash as a position: He sees the US dollar primed to rally to 109, which would hurt metals, and plans to buy a dollar-index ETF — noting that in 2022 the dollar ETF rose ~18% with a max drawdown under 4% while the S&P fell 25%. Earning 3-4% in cash, he argues, beats watching an account fall 20-50%.
Margin calls and Mag 7 warning: Vermeulen expects a flood of margin calls as precious metals break down further, pointing to Bitcoin-linked strategies already getting hit, and mocks the public buying the dip as “the bottom.” He flags smart money rotating out of the Magnificent Seven into defensive utilities — for SEC and AUM-fee reasons — as an early warning that the broader market is tiring.
The speaker argues that as Muslim populations grow in the UK and Europe, moderate Muslims become “irrelevant” because they won’t stop groomers or terrorists, and claims his past warnings about extremism have “aged well.” He contends the UK government funded only Muslim organizations to tackle the grooming scandal while ignoring Sikh and Hindu groups like the Sikh Awareness Society (run by Mohan Singh), which he says relocated 10 girls abroad, and asserts that no one educates the white working class about grooming. He frames a “red-green alliance” of the far-left and Islamists working to overthrow Western systems (citing Iran and Lebanon), names Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest terrorism funders (claiming Qatar gave nearly £1 billion to Islamist organizations and orchestrated October 7th), and invokes a “177-page United Nations document” on population replacement, while disputing the far-right claim that Jews orchestrate this and instead blaming “the oligarchy.”
Moderate Muslims dismissed as ineffective: The speaker claims that once Islam becomes dominant, peaceful Muslims become “irrelevant” because they won’t report groomers or terrorists. He says they should be brought onside “as much as we can” but cannot be relied upon to solve the problem.
Selective government grooming-scandal funding: He alleges the UK government funded only Muslim organizations to address grooming while giving nothing to the Sikh Awareness Society or Hindu groups, who he says operate on community donations. He praises Mohan Singh and describes temple seminars teaching families the warning signs of grooming, lamenting that “no one’s doing that for us.”
The “red-green alliance”: The speaker argues far-left Marxists and Islamists have aligned to break down Western systems, as he claims happened in Iran and Lebanon, warning the left will “get killed first” once the system is overthrown. He distinguishes this from healthy mainstream left- and right-wing politics.
Gulf-state terror funding: He names Qatar and Saudi Arabia as the biggest exporters of terrorism, claiming Qatar houses Hamas leaders, funds Al Jazeera as its “mouthpiece,” gave nearly £1 billion to European Islamist groups, and orchestrated the October 7th attacks alongside Iran. He recounts confronting staff during an Al Jazeera interview.
Population replacement and the Jewish question: The speaker cites a “177-page United Nations document” as proof that European population replacement is planned rather than a conspiracy theory. He rejects the far-right belief that Jews orchestrate this — calling it “insane” — and instead blames “the oligarchy” and “the elite,” citing Hollywood funding patterns (98% Democrat) as evidence the agenda isn’t specifically Jewish.
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