Beige Book data shows 3/4 of the US in stagnation or contraction mode, indicating a recession is already underway, not just approaching.
JOLTS data reveals layoffs have surpassed hirings for 3 consecutive months, with the hiring rate declining and continuing claims reaching a 4-year high of 1.9 million.
World Bank and IMF predict US real GDP growth will be little better than 1% in the next two years, historically associated with an actual recession.
The Fed’s funds rate is over 100 basis points restrictive compared to the neutral rate, with a long road to equilibrium expected by year-end.
Fed staff forecast indicates a 50/50 chance of recession, an unusual prediction for an asset class, reflecting economic uncertainty.
The next market shock is predicted to be job losses by fall, which will likely cause markets to misprice risk.
Gold is expected to double from current levels, potentially reaching $6,000 an ounce in the next 5 years, as central banks diversify from the US dollar.
Aerospace defense sector is considered a “no-brainer” investment due to global backlogs, order books, and production schedules not fully priced into the market.
10-year Treasury notes are recommended over 30-year bonds, with potential for 30% returns even with a 70 basis point increase.
Tariffs are viewed as a “tax increase on the world”, potentially depressing global economic activity and having negative multiplier effects on the US economy.
The Fed is closely monitoring wage numbers and labor participation rates to avoid a wage-price spiral and ensure inflation doesn’t become persistent.
Global tensions between America, China, Russia, and Iran could lead to high oil prices and closure of the Hormuz Strait, disrupting 20% of global oil supplies.
Gold’s rising value as a safe-haven asset signals increasing geopolitical pressures over the next 2-3 years.
Initial war reactions will cause a sell-off in base metals, with copper potentially falling from $97,000 to $7,000 in early 2024.
Following economic recovery efforts, base metal prices could double in value over the subsequent 18-24 months.
China, Russia, and Iran are coordinating policies to counter America’s regional power ambitions, operating in close alignment.
The BRICS Development Bank is poised to rival Western institutions, offering alternatives to the SWIFT system and US dollar dominance.
A combination of war, energy price increases, and food price rises could push inflation over 10% by early 2028.
The US-China trade war truce is likely to break down before the end of 2025, with China prepared for confrontation through AI-powered automation in manufacturing.
Ukraine’s future is in jeopardy as the conflict is revealed to be a proxy war between NATO and Russia, with the ultimate goal of splitting up Russia and dividing its resources.
The EU is imploding due to climate change policies, sanctions, and economic struggles, with Germany (25% of EU economy) facing massive bankruptcies, potentially leading to the breakup of the EU.
The European Commission’s unelected, unaccountable structure contrasts sharply with the US system of primaries and elections, highlighting a democratic deficit in EU governance.
The Roman Empire’s success in maintaining local cultures and religions is presented as the only way a single government can work effectively in a diverse society.
Women’s suffrage became necessary only after the introduction of income tax and socialistic laws, as evidenced by historical voting systems like Athens’ household head model.
The EU’s increased military spending is driven by a desire to remain relevant and secure funding, rather than genuine security concerns, as revealed by internal NATO memos.
Germany’s economic struggles, including bankruptcies and declining employment, are attributed to climate change policies, COVID-19 impact, and increased support for the Ukraine war.
Martin Armstrong’s computer model has accurately predicted wars and economic collapses, including the Lebanese Civil War and Russian bond market collapse in 1998, based on capital flows and market trends.
The model predicted that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would not win as an independent candidate in 2024, leading to advice to join Trump’s ticket for a chance at success.
The EU’s climate change policies are criticized as baseless, with no evidence supporting the claim that fossil fuels cause warming trends, ignoring natural ice ages and warming periods.
Middle Eastern dictators like Saddam Hussein, Assad, and Gaddafi are viewed as necessary to prevent ethnic and religious killings, with their removal leading to the rise of extremist groups like ISIS.
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