Despite a current market rally, underlying economic fundamentals are weak and likely to lead to a recession, making the rally a short-lived opportunity to sell assets rather than a sign of sustained recovery.
Economic Outlook
The March-April correction was likely a correction in an intact bull uptrend, not a bear market rally, but the May recovery is a rally to be sold as fundamentals remain unchanged.
Despite varying economic conditions, the 10-year Treasury yield has remained sideways for months, indicating a new normal that poses challenges for a leveraged economy.
A wave of corporate bankruptcy filings, the largest since the global financial crisis, and deteriorating credit situations suggest the lag effect of high bond yields is already impacting economic growth.
Consumer Stress
Auto repossessions are occurring at the fastest rate since the Great Recession, while home equity cash outs rose 22% in Q1 2023, signaling consumer financial distress.
The quits rate has collapsed, contradicting the idea of a strong labor market and suggesting consumer anxiety about economic prospects.
The repayment of student loans could be a catalyst for cascading contagion, with delinquencies potentially skyrocketing as borrowers adjust to repayment after years of forbearance.
Labor Market Concerns
A massive gap exists between the household survey (down 660,000 jobs) and payroll survey (up 139,000 jobs), casting doubt on the accuracy of employment data.
A material stock market correction could force a wave of retirees to unretire due to portfolio losses, potentially causing a significant increase in the unemployment rate.
Economic Transitions
The end of globalization era is underway, potentially leading to a multi-decade transition period of economic volatility, higher inflation, and more pronounced business cycles.
Reshoring of manufacturing to the US, driven by national strategic purposes, may come at the expense of Wall Street profits but could narrow the economic gap between high and low-income groups.
Market Indicators
Banks are reserving at a higher rate for loan losses than the unemployment rate suggests, indicating nervousness about the economy and expectations of a future credit crisis.
The breakout in silver prices above $35/oz is a technical signal of short-term overbought conditions, but analysts suggest it could quickly reach $50/oz with no resistance.
Financial Education
Compounding interest is a powerful force for building wealth, and teaching young people about it through practical demonstrations (e.g., Excel spreadsheets) can be highly effective.
Financial literacy, including lessons on working hard, saving money, and living below one’s means, is crucial for young people to make informed decisions and achieve financial independence.