The average consumer has been in recession since 2022, masked by high-end asset gains and debt relief, with resumed student loan payments expected to impact credit scores and slow spending.
Rising delinquencies in credit cards (7%) and auto loans (5%) since the 2008 crisis, coupled with halted FHA loss mitigation, signal systemic risks and potential cascading defaults across credit types.
The Fed’s yield curve control may be too late to prevent a 3.5-4% unemployment rate spike, as consumer spending retrenchment anticipates job market deterioration.
The 60/40 portfolio is becoming untenable due to rising defaults and systemic risks, necessitating a rethink of asset allocations towards hard assets like gold and silver.
Foreign central banks, particularly from BRICS+ countries, are driving gold’s surge by diversifying out of dollars, signaling a shift away from the US as the global financial epicenter.
The US Treasury’s plan to reduce the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for banks aims to inject liquidity into the Treasury market and boost lending.
The US economy’s heavy leverage makes it unable to handle current interest rates, with the corporate sector facing unsustainable debt at 8% rates, up from 4% post-COVID.
The US’s intentional orchestration of global financial stress to force investment into treasuries is backfiring as capital flees due to a shift towards isolationist policies.
Gold is positioned as the ultimate form of money, expected to surge as global central banks debase currencies in an inevitable currency crisis.
Investors should be open-minded about investing outside the US for equity exposure, given the shift away from global trade benefiting the dollar as the reserve currency.
The unsustainable debt crisis and rising defaults are leading to a credit crisis, with banks tightening credit and traditional portfolio strategies becoming increasingly risky.
Free market dynamics have historically been effective in selecting energy winners, as evidenced by the success of pipelines, contrasting with government-driven energy policies.
Crude oil prices directly impact Putin’s war capabilities, with prices below $40 potentially limiting his ability to wage conflicts, as illustrated by oil price trends since 2012.
Rare earth elements, abundant in Canada, represent a potentially prosperous industry for provinces like Saskatchewan, with governments less likely to withhold these resources compared to oil and gas.
Professional rioters, allegedly funded by figures like George Soros, are orchestrating urban unrest using tactics such as deploying cinder bricks in cities like Los Angeles.
The housing market is experiencing a downturn due to high mortgage rates, despite generally decreasing central bank interest rates, with baby boomers particularly affected by difficulties selling larger homes.
Global debt has skyrocketed from $30 trillion in 1997 to $300 trillion today, causing unprecedented economic stress and fueling social unrest, populism, and financial market volatility.
The seductive fantasy of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that deficits can be solved with more debt is too good to be true, ultimately leading to currency devaluation, inflation, and centralization.
A stark wealth disparity exists where the top 10% of Americans hold 90% of equity market wealth, fostering resentment and radical voting mentality among the majority.
The cyclical pattern of debt crisis → market crisis → currency crisis → inflationary crisis → social unrest invariably ends in centralization and demagoguery.
Transitions from old to new systems are inherently messy, involving resistance, friction, and conflict, as evidenced by the current shift from globalism to nationalism.
The US’s $37 trillion public debt and $100 trillion combined debt make growth mathematically impossible, as debt historically cuts growth by a third.
The US faces not just a banking crisis but a liquidity crisis, exemplified by the 2019 repo crisis, 2020 COVID crisis, and anticipated 2025 bond market liquidity crisis.
China’s 30-year head start in manufacturing, rare earths, and steel production ingredients has effectively checkmated the US in critical areas.
Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan to develop mining infrastructure could provide the US with a rare earth processing shortcut, crucial for remaining competitive.
US leadership is characterized by vanity, self-interest, and narcissism, prioritizing personal legacy and power over national betterment.
Solving the US debt crisis requires severe austerity in entitlements and military spending, which is politically difficult to achieve.
The US needs to reshore jobs and industries to improve its GDP, rather than blaming developing countries or China for its budget deficit.
Investing in gold as a hedge against uncertainty is advisable, with central banks and sovereign wealth funds already buying physical gold due to decreasing trust in the US dollar.
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