Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, explains why America may be repeating key economic mistakes that preceded the Great Depression, discusses fiscal dominance and the limits of Federal Reserve policy, and outlines what it means for inflation, debt, stocks, gold, and Bitcoin in the years ahead.
Casey argues the world is on the edge of an economic, financial, sociological, and possibly military precipice, predicting a “greater depression” and a grim next 10 years driven by a US stock market that is a “super bubble” with roughly 45-47% of the S&P 500 tied to AI. He contends the Fed is the engine of inflation and should be abolished, that Worsh has no real choice but to keep monetizing roughly $2 trillion in annual government borrowing, and that reported inflation (with PPI already up 6%) is inevitably headed much higher. He is bearish on stocks, bonds, and real estate, calling gold and silver fairly valued rather than bargains, and instead is bullish on dirt-cheap commodity and mining stocks that he believes could go 10-to-1, 100-to-1, or even 1,000-to-1 over a five-to-six-year cycle.
South America as an investment “where money goes to die”: Casey says his 200,000 hectares (500,000 acres) in Salta Province, Argentina bought ~20 years ago has no real bid, and his 2007 Buenos Aires apartment (~$950,000) is maybe worth $1.5 million now, a real-terms loss. He credits Argentina’s strong ARGT ETF chart (roughly 4-5x off the July 2022 bottom) to anarcho-capitalist president Javier Milei, while criticizing Milei for shipping another 440,000 ounces of gold to London and failing to abolish the central bank or issue a gold-backed peso.
China as the best major country for business: Casey claims China is no longer communist and is actually the best major country in the world for business, with minimal regulations, no unions, low costs, mobile payments, and high-speed trains running 200 mph. He acknowledges expropriation risk similar to frozen Russian holdings post-2022, but argues staying entirely in the US carries even greater risk than diversifying.
The AI super bubble and capital misallocation: Casey states AI is the epicenter of the super bubble, with 45% (47% counting SpaceX) of the S&P 500 being AI plays, soon near 50% once OpenAI and Anthropic go public as trillion-dollar companies. He argues the gigantic US data centers (about 5,000 versus China’s ~500) are largely surveillance infrastructure rather than productive investment, comparing the spending to “putting a lot of wealth in a pile and lighting it on fire.”
The surveillance state and “Eye of Sauron”: Casey warns the digital world now knows “absolutely everything” via cameras, facial recognition, and license-plate scanning that outpaces personal memory, singling out Peter Thiel’s Palantir as “actually anti-capitalist.” He frames this as both a civil-liberties danger and a massive capital misallocation with unclear returns.
Abolishing the Fed and the commodity opportunity: Casey insists the Fed serves no useful purpose and should be abolished like Argentina’s central bank, but says it won’t be because the government relies on it to monetize ~$2 trillion in annual borrowing that the Chinese and Japanese no longer buy. He calls energy and mining stocks historically cheap (energy at 4% of the S&P versus 20% in the early 1980s, mining at 2%), citing all-in sustaining costs of $1,700 against $4,000 gold leaving miners netting ~$2,300 an ounce.
Armstrong argues that capital flows tell the real story, with money fleeing geopolitical tensions in Asia and the Middle East into the US dollar and equities, and he warns the first crack in a sovereign debt crisis may appear in the Middle East as Gulf States that borrowed heavily when oil hit $6.50 during COVID struggle to service debt. He contends Europe is in serious trouble because government consumes 52% of GDP (versus 35% in the US) and is pushing for war as a distraction, and he predicts China may move against Taiwan—possibly before the US election—after Macron told Xi that Europe would not interfere. He maintains the unconventional view that gold and stocks can rise together during a sovereign debt crisis because tangible assets survive when government is the party in trouble, and he forecasts a general economic expansion into 2032 with AI raising productivity rather than causing mass unemployment.
Capital flows into the US dollar and equities: Armstrong argues geopolitical tensions in Asia are driving capital inflows to the US from Japan, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, supporting the resilient dollar and equity markets. He dismisses press narratives that a blockade will collapse Iran as propaganda.
Iran and a potential Middle East banking crisis: Armstrong claims Iran is playing “3D chess,” attacking Dubai and the Gulf States specifically to trigger a banking crisis among nations that cannot service debt if they can’t sell oil. He says Iran retains roughly 70% of the largest ballistic missile stockpile and uses drone waves to force Israel to expend Patriot missiles costing over $1 million each against $30,000 drones.
Europe’s debt and government-to-GDP problem: Armstrong argues the real test is government as a share of GDP—52% in Europe versus 35% in the US—which leaves European growth at about half the US rate. He says Italy has told Brussels it should issue debt due to difficulty selling its own, and that Europe pushes war as a distraction from this failure.
Taiwan as the next geopolitical flashpoint: Armstrong says Macron met Xi before Trump and told him Europe would not defend anything outside its territory, including Taiwan, effectively giving a “green light.” He believes Trump will not come to Taiwan’s rescue and that action could come even before the US election, with activity increasing in both Asia and the Middle East by August.
Gold seasonality and AI productivity into 2032: Armstrong identifies support on gold around 3950 and expects a seasonal low this week or next (gold having fallen from $5,000 earlier this year to roughly $4,150), followed by a rally into August. He forecasts economic expansion into 2032 and argues his own 40-year-old AI system—writing over 1,500 reports daily—shows AI raises productivity without mass layoffs, unlike the internet’s disruption of local stores.
Cut through the clutter and mainstream media noise. Get free, concise dispatches on vital news, videos and opinions. Delivered to Your email inbox daily. You’ll never miss a critical story, guaranteed.