Peter Zeihan addresses how soon an energy crisis hits given a roughly 13 million barrel-per-day shortage he treats as “pretty much confirmed” from a shuttered Persian Gulf, placing the danger window at the 1-to-5-week mark when refineries and storage hubs hit minimum operating capacity and prices spike severely worldwide. He weighs two mitigating factors — crude allegedly leaking out via tankers turning off transponders and “sprinting” through the Strait of Hormuz (most aggressive estimate ~1.5 million barrels/day) and real demand destruction/fuel switching in India and China (~1.5 million barrels/day) — which together could cut the net loss from 13 million to about 10 million barrels/day. Even granting both, he calculates that by the 110th day of closure the cumulative shortfall is around 1.3 billion barrels (or ~1 billion if the optimistic adjustments hold), still the largest energy shock in human history, and stresses that even if the Gulf reopened tomorrow, output would take years to restore because oil fields cannot be switched on and off quickly.
Top 5 Key Topics
The crisis timing brackets: Zeihan places the critical threshold at the 1-to-5-week period when refineries and storage hubs reach minimum operating capacity, which is when he expects a significant, “pretty horrible” price increase everywhere.
The baseline shortage: He treats a roughly 13 million barrel-per-day shortage from the shut Persian Gulf as essentially confirmed, with reserve flows already being affected badly.
Crude leakage through Hormuz: He cites reports of tankers loading in Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, switching off transponders and running for the exit allegedly unnoticed by Iran, with the most aggressive estimate around 1.5 million barrels/day.
Demand destruction as a balancing force: Zeihan notes real demand destruction and fuel switching in India and China (most aggressive estimate ~1.5 million barrels/day) which, combined with leakage, could reduce the net loss to about 10 million barrels/day and buy perhaps one to two more months before minimum operating levels.
The cumulative shortfall and slow recovery: He estimates roughly 1.3 billion barrels never produced by day 110 (shrinking to ~1 billion if the optimistic 3 million barrels/day adjustment holds), still the biggest shock ever, and warns fields can’t be restarted quickly — 3 to 6 months for Saudi Arabia and the UAE, over a year for most others, and closer to five years for Iraq.