Fiat currency system collapse is expected within the next couple of years, driven by the Iran War and deteriorating faith in fiat currencies especially among foreign dollar holders, which could trigger dollar devaluation even without M2 money supply increases.
The Fed will be forced to devalue the dollar to prevent credit collapse as the largest financial sector bubble in history bursts, with private credit and equity sectors unable to refinance debt borrowed at low rates now facing rising bond yields.
Real assets (gold, silver, oil, copper, agriculture) are undervalued relative to historical prices and M2 money supply growth, positioned to rise significantly as dollar purchasing power declines from increased credit and inflation.
The Iran War is expected to continue through most of 2026, with Iran deploying 1M soldiers and missiles across 57 regions in a country the size of Western Europe, causing massive inflation and shortages in fertilizers and oil.
War-driven commodity shortages and fertilizer/oil supply disruptions will further degrade dollar purchasing power and accelerate real asset price increases beyond temporary geopolitical price spikes.
Central banks and major banks are accumulating gold while speculative positions in gold and silver sit at historically low levels, creating conditions for rapid price increases when demand accelerates.
Bond yields in highly indebted G6 nations are breaking out on the upside, likely triggering a collapse of overvalued equity markets and strengthening gold/silver as safe haven assets.
Market makers manipulate prices by shaking out positions and taking out stops, while COMEX and LME trading halts raise manipulation concerns, though these are not primary drivers compared to broader economic and geopolitical factors.
Long-term gold price drivers are monetary degradation and M2 money supply growth as proven by historical charts, not geopolitical events like war which only create temporary price effects.
The private credit and equity sectors are highly leveraged and vulnerable, having borrowed at low rates expecting rates to stay low, now struggling to refinance as interest rates and bond yields rise toward collapse.
The financial sector bubble built on speculative debt will burst dramatically, forcing monetary authorities to choose between political intervention or complete currency failure as the only two possible outcomes.
Fiat money enables both inflation and wars, with the current monetary system deemed unsustainable—a monetary crisis in the early 2030s will force a return to a sound currency standard (either gold, bitcoin, or commodity-backed) to address wealth inequality and prevent economic ruin.
Fed balance sheet must grow along a necessary curve to keep debt stable; falling below this growth trajectory requires money printing to prevent instability, as demonstrated in past two instances.
War expenses could add $700B/year to the already record $2T annual deficit (6% of GDP), dramatically increasing odds of money supply debasement and bond market rejection of current yields.
Gold, silver, and Bitcoin offer known, reliable value amid opaque and potentially dishonest valuations of private credit and other assets, with physical ownership preferred as paper promises fail during crises.
Silver’s dual role as both monetary metal and industrial commodity (batteries, solar) with tight supply and high demand could drive price to $666/oz if gold reaches $10K, offering the most asymmetric opportunity in the gold/silver stock arena.
Bitcoin is the cheapest of the three safe-haven assets on a relative basis, with its portability making it a secure store of value in geopolitically unstable regions where it can be easily transported across borders unlike physical gold.
Gold stocks historically outperform gold by 2-3x during gold price increases due to their future production streams, with potential to double or triple from current levels during the next bull market leg.
The Strait of Hormuz, carrying 18 million barrels per day of oil, impacts not just oil prices but also supply of fertilizer, aluminum, and helium—all essential for food production and chip manufacturing.
Higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz could trigger increased inflation across multiple commodity sectors and manufactured goods, compounding existing economic pressures.
Private credit bubble is imploding similar to the 2008 housing crisis, with major firms gating funds and investors demanding withdrawals, posing contagion risk from liquidity constraints in a highly leveraged economy at record stock valuations.
Financial markets have held up surprisingly well despite significant risks, suggesting potential market manipulation by the federal government to maintain stability ahead of political events.
Gresham’s law predicts that when people realize dollars are being debased, they’ll switch to owning gold, silver, and Bitcoin as alternative sound money that cannot be debased.
The next liquidity event is expected to boost gold, silver, and Bitcoin prices, with the Fed introducing a new, complex liquidity program post-midterms to trigger the imminent next leg of the precious metals bull market.
The global oil market has fragmented into two-tier pricing with US oil cheaper than international benchmarks as specific contract details like location, quality, and customer now matter more than the generic “price of oil,” evidenced by the widening Brent-WTI spread.
US and Canada have become global energy gigapowers producing all needed energy domestically with abundant cheap natural gas, transforming from deficit to significant abundance by 2024 while China and Middle East remain net importers.
Trump administration is predicted to implement protectionism and export controls to avoid exposing US consumers to international prices for self-sufficient commodities, creating North America as an energy fortress that “pulls up the ladders.”
Margin calls driven by credit and financing are the most powerful force in finance during oil market disruptions, causing all collateral to be sold regardless of asset type, creating cascading market effects.
The XLE ETF (including Exxon and Chevron) only rose 4.5% since Iran war started despite significant oil price moves, as producers prefer sustainable price increases over volatile spikes that create shortages followed by gluts like the 2008-2010 oil crisis.
Escalation risks in the Strait of Hormuz including potential attacks on desalination plants could create an irreversible humanitarian crisis, though energy calamity remains avoidable if ceasefire achieved before infrastructure extraction begins.
Capping wells due to lack of storage and transportation capacity could trigger a deflationary spiral, but remains reversible as demonstrated by Russia’s case where oil doesn’t stay in the ground forever.
If the US controls 1/3 of the world’s oil post-Iran war, it fundamentally changes the global energy chessboard especially regarding US-China tensions, with potential to deny China access to Middle East oil on the way out.
Qatar LNG attack resulted in 17% LNG loss triggering predictions that “here comes the money printers” as governments paper over infrastructure damage and economic dislocation from the global energy disruption.
Despite short-term chaos from war-driven global economic dislocation, Doomberg maintains an extraordinarily bullish 5-year outlook on American energy prospects, predicting a new shale-style technological breakthrough will emerge to create an American energy renaissance.
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