Open interest in gold futures, currently at 450,000 contracts, is a crucial leading indicator for potential price growth, with low levels often correlating with local price lows.
Physical deliveries of gold into short positions can erase open interest, reducing speculation and potentially allowing the price to move higher without affecting bullion banks’ accounting.
Central banks, including India and Poland, are buying physical gold aggressively, but their impact on price is limited as they also sell and view gold as an asset to manipulate currency values.
In an economic endgame scenario, central banks may sell their gold reserves in a futile attempt to save their currencies, potentially benefiting currency users.
Gold supplies on exchanges have been slightly decreasing, with eligible or registered bars reaching a high of 42-43 million ounces, possibly due to bullion banks moving gold out of vaults.
Inflation is described as a psychological game where loss of hope in the future can lead to a hyperinflationary crackup boom, resulting in a rush to buy real assets.
Sound money and truth are fundamental for strong family structures, promoting intergenerational attachment and responsibility.
The debasement of currency and dishonesty in financial systems can lead to family breakdown and generational separation, highlighting the broader societal impacts of economic policies.
Individual resilience and preparedness are key to thriving in a shifting economic landscape, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in uncertain times.
Gold and silver, as anti-inflation assets, can protect purchasing power and provide security, especially when held in physical form as a store of value.
China’s hypersonic missiles could destroy Taiwan’s energy and grid network within minutes, potentially triggering a US response amid internal divisions between hawks and restrainers in the Trump administration.
The Trump administration’s massive military budget of $1 billion for next year may indicate preparation for a potential war with China, which has significantly enhanced its military capabilities.
The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, is driving for a multilateral world that could challenge America’s hegemony, potentially leading to the end of the American empire.
The US-China trade war is expected to result in a highly inflationary recovery lasting 12-18 months, followed by double-digit inflation and a global financial system crash, with copper prices bottoming at $7,000 LME in early 2024 and doubling by end 2027.
Gold prices are more tied to geopolitical crises than inflation, with predictions of $5,000 gold by 2027 and a weakening US dollar, potentially leading to two separate dollars: a domestic gold-backed dollar and a floating offshore dollar.
The Trump administration is likely to encourage the Fed to cut rates and increase money supply in Q4 2023, triggering an inflationary recovery before a financial crash.
Despite China’s property market implosion and corporate defaults, the government has tools to revitalize the economy, including household savings, pension policies, and key infrastructure projects.
China’s economy is not in dire straits despite a deflationary crisis since 2023, with the property sector contained and government tools available, though a massive fall in Hong Kong share prices and the Shanghai composite in late 2024 may signal Taiwan tensions.
The stock market typically rolls over before economic data weakens, with precious metals and utilities often rallying into the stock market top, followed by the economic cycle with poor data and weakening job earnings.
A bearish environment is indicated by the first GDP contraction since 2022 and 50 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings, suggesting poor economic data and weakening job earnings ahead.
Implement a 5% hard stop loss for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ to protect capital, as the market excels at shaking out investors reluctant to move on.
The long-term weekly chart of the S&P 500 reveals a bearish environment with rallies stalling and selling off, while short-term charts may show daily strength, indicating big players going defensive.
The S&P 500 has already dropped 15-24% from its high and could potentially fall another 20-40% to the COVID low of 460-417 or even 275.
Current price action of gold and the S&P 500 mirrors 2006-2008 and 2023-today, with gold becoming the most favored asset before a financial crisis.
The US dollar could perform well, contrary to expectations, with extreme sentiments similar to 2008 when the dollar index crashed and gold surged.
Gold is in a screaming bull market but entering a bubble phase, likely to correct 15-35% with the overall stock market before starting a new major cycle.
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