Three powerful conversations exposing the cascading crises threatening food, freedom, and financial markets in 2026.
On Liberty and Finance, silver guru David Morgan warns that fertilizer shortages from the Strait of Hormuz closure and the Ukraine war are setting up a global food crisis with historical precedent for sevenfold price increases, and that governments will respond with programmable money tied to Real ID rather than actual relief.
At the Mises Institute, Ryan McMaken argues the US Constitution has become “a suicide pact” that legally forbids the four mechanisms — secession, defensive borders, state-level federalism, and border redrawing — that 19th-century liberals like Mises identified as the only way to prevent civil war as diverse populations are forced together under one central government.
And on VRIC Media, Luke Groman of Forest for the Trees explains why every day Hormuz stays closed is now worth three days from two months ago, with Spirit Airlines’ shutdown signaling the start of a supply chain unraveling that will force policymakers to choose between saving the currency or the bond market — a choice he believes inevitably sends gold to $15,000 and collapses the S&P-to-gold ratio to 0.2. Together, these episodes cover the looming food crisis, the structural impossibility of peaceful political change in America, and the monetary endgame already playing out in commodity and bond markets.
Morgan argues we are heading into a global food crisis driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure cutting off fertilizer inputs, the Ukraine war disrupting the breadbasket of Europe, and rising input costs making it unprofitable for farmers to plant — citing his colleague David DuByne’s historical finding that real food crises produce a sevenfold increase in prices. He warns this won’t manifest as empty shelves but as unaffordability, with countries like Indonesia where food already consumes 50% of household budgets being hit hardest, and that the US government’s likely response will be Universal Basic Income or expanded EBT cards tied to Real ID — effectively programmable money that restricts what citizens can buy. His core practical advice is that buying extra food you actually eat is a “no-lose bet” since you’re either hedged against price inflation or covered during a job loss, while gold and silver remain the most readily acceptable barter assets — citing the early 1900s famine when farmers ended up with grand pianos and silverware in their barns from desperate trades.
The sevenfold food price warning from history: Morgan’s interviews with David DuByne and war correspondent Michael Yon convinced him a global food crisis is in motion, with DuByne’s historical research showing real food crises produce a sevenfold price increase. US food staples have already roughly doubled in price since 2020, and stored grain silos are masking the real shortage that’s coming as harvests fail.
The economics of why farmers won’t plant: Using Washington state’s Palouse wheat-growing region as an example, Morgan walks through how if fertilizer-driven input costs reach 1.2x the futures price farmers can sell wheat for, they simply switch to less fertilizer-intensive crops like soybeans. This means even if all the soil, labor, and fertilizer exist, unprofitable economics alone collapse food supply — compounded by war risk where farmers near conflict zones rationally refuse to plant capital they might have to abandon.
Early warning signs in grocery stores: Morgan switched to second-tier Grocery Outlet in 2020 and noticed aisles being filled with different products — huge bags of chips replacing depleted staples — as stores work to make shelves look normal. He recommends watching for items where only one backup remains behind the front-facing product on shelves as a leading indicator of supply disruption.
Programmable money as the government’s “solution”: Morgan predicts UBI or expanded EBT cards tied to Real ID requirements, citing Catherine Austin Fitts and Dr. Kirk Elliott’s warnings about programmable money. EBT already restricts liquor and tobacco purchases, and Morgan expects future restrictions on junk food quantities, wheat allocations per family size, and other controls — framed as humanitarian aid but functioning as control infrastructure.
Gold, silver, and home gardening as practical hedges: Morgan cites the early 1900s famine where wheat farmers accumulated grand pianos and silverware from desperate barter trades, arguing precious metals will be the most accepted barter currency in a real shortage. On gardening, he admits after seven years of growing food that homegrown tomatoes humbled him — he was only truly successful one year despite intense effort — and recommends focusing on what grows easily in your climate with high nutrient density like beets, carrots, and apples for the Gerson formula of carrot-apple juice.
McMaken argues the US Constitution has become “a suicide pact” that systematically prevents the kinds of decentralization, border redrawing, and self-determination that 19th-century French liberals like Benjamin Constant and Charles Dunoyer — along with Mises himself — identified as the only feasible way to prevent revolutions and civil wars. He contends that as populations grow more diverse in values, coercion necessarily increases to force one group’s rules on others, but the four core mechanisms that could relieve this pressure — secession, defensive borders between states, internal state federalism, and border redrawing — are all legally forbidden under current US law. His conclusion is that meaningful change will only come during a major political or economic crisis that opens a “revolutionary moment” like the Soviet collapse, and that the Mises Institute’s role is keeping good ideas alive so socialism isn’t the only option available when that moment arrives.
Mises and the case for radical decentralization: McMaken cites Mises’s view that self-determination “right on down to the single village level” is “the only feasible and effective way of preventing revolutions and civil and international wars,” echoing Gustave de Molinari’s “double right of secession” — provinces from nations and municipalities from provinces. He notes 19th-century French liberals understood that more uniform populations require less coercion, while diverse populations forced together inevitably require central government violence to maintain order.
No secession allowed — the legal suicide pact: Despite America itself being founded through secession (citing historian David Armitage), the post-Civil War “might makes right” principle and the Supreme Court’s Texas v. White ruling magically discovered a “perpetual union” doctrine with no textual basis. McMaken contrasts this with Singapore, which was thrown out of Malaysia in 1965 in what looked humiliating at the time but produced one of the world’s highest living standards.
States cannot defend themselves from other states: Using “Californication of Colorado” as his example, McMaken notes states must accept unlimited migration from other states with immediate voting rights, allowing one state’s ideology to indirectly rule its neighbors. Sanctuary states that refuse to prosecute criminals can export those criminals to neighboring states with no recourse, unlike Europe’s Schengen system which permits emergency border closures.
States can’t even have internal federalism: The Warren Court’s 1964 Reynolds v. Sims ruling abolished territorial representation at the state level, forcing one-man-one-vote on state senates and converting every US state into a unitary government like France. Rural counties that once had state senate representation regardless of population — the same logic that justifies the US Senate — lost all counterbalance to urban political dominance.
Borders can never be redrawn: Border changes technically require approval from both state legislatures plus Congress, meaning hundreds of millionaires in New England and North Carolina get to decide whether Oregon and Idaho can change their border. State lines drawn 150-200 years ago to reflect old demographic realities are now permanent, and meaningful change will only come during a major crisis — which is why McMaken says the Mises Institute exists to keep ideas alive for when that revolutionary moment arrives.
Gromen argues every day the Strait of Hormuz stays closed is now worth three days from two months ago as oil inventories deplete and supply chain breakdowns accelerate — Spirit Airlines just shut down, global airlines have cancelled around 100,000 flights cutting 2 million seats, and travel represents roughly 10% of global GDP. He frames the core dilemma as whether policymakers will “save the currency or save the bond market,” with stocks and Bitcoin trading as if they’ll let the currency go while bonds trade as if they’ll defend the currency — and he believes there’s zero chance they’ll save the currency, meaning gold runs to $15,000+ and the S&P-to-gold ratio collapses to 0.2. His framework calls Trump’s Hormuz strategy the equivalent of Ohio State being down 28-7 at halftime to Alabama and deciding to throw footballs at Alabama’s Gatorade supply rather than fix their own broken quarterback, running back, and offensive line.
The accelerating supply chain breakdown: Spirit Airlines’ weekend shutdown is Groman’s “2007 mortgage lender” leading indicator, with British Airways unexpectedly high on the cancellation list because Britain imports most of its jet fuel. He’s hearing about 20-30-50-100% price increases being passed through petroleum-based supply chains, gasoline at $5.99 for diesel in Cleveland, and fertilizer shortages that will cause outright food shortages in poorer parts of the world.
China’s sulfuric acid weapon and the silver implication: China’s export ban on sulfuric acid will flow-restrict copper, nickel, zinc, and uranium production globally — and since silver is a byproduct of copper mining, this accelerates an already severe silver supply deficit. Groman cites a retired CME analyst’s December writeup showing US Geological Survey numbers can’t reconcile silver demand from solar panels alone, and silver was designated a critical mineral by the US government in October 2024.
The UAE leaving OPEC and the post-1971 system: The UAE’s exit from OPEC came after they threatened to price oil in yuan unless granted a dollar swap line, which Bessent provided — possibly with the condition they leave OPEC. Groman frames OPEC as the cartel that managed oil at $15-25 for 30 years post-1973 to support the post-gold-standard dollar system, and its breakup may signal the end of that monetary arrangement entirely.
Defense Production Act and forced energy production: Trump invoked the DPA for petroleum production and US electrical infrastructure, which Groman thinks could lead to either tax incentives or draconian measures like forcing military personnel into oil fields at infantry wages while roughnecks next to them make $200-220K. Labor is the actual bottleneck for grid buildout, and the AI manufacturing boom is severely electricity-constrained — making PAVE and grid ETF companies, nuclear supply chains, copper, nickel, and rare earths structurally attractive.
Gold’s no-man’s-land and the S&P-to-gold endgame: Central banks bought more gold last month than in several quarters yet the price fell because GCC nations are selling, putting gold in a holding pattern until policymakers definitively choose to “save the bond market and throw the currency under the bus.” Groman expects the S&P-to-gold ratio to fall to 0.2 (currently around 0.6), would happily swap gold for 10-year Treasuries at 3% if gold reaches $15,000-$20,000, and remains significantly overweight cash, T-bills, and gold bullion — he calls compounding interest “undefeated all-time against empires.”
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