The US-China trade deal is actually a 90-day ceasefire with tariffs reduced from 145% to 54%, still significantly impacting consumers and global economy.
US exceptionalism narrative is dying due to Trump’s aggressive behavior, causing investors to flee to markets in China, Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
The gold price is increasingly set in the East, with the Shanghai gold exchange facilitating the Chinese yuan’s global acceptance for settlement transactions convertible to gold.
The US is effectively bankrupt with $37 trillion in debt, including $2 trillion in unfunded liabilities over the next 50 years.
The Trump administration could be the “kiss of death” for the dollar, potentially leading to a catastrophic crash and the end of its status as the world’s reserve currency.
Gold has been the best investment over the last 25 years, more than doubling from its low, outperforming other asset classes despite low media attention.
Based on previous bull market cycles, gold could potentially reach $7,000-$8,000 an ounce as the ultimate price target in the current cycle.
The India-Pakistan conflict involves six airplanes shot down, but its authenticity is questionable.
An Israel-Iran conflict could be positive if Israel is prevented from attacking Iran, but catastrophic if it occurs.
West Red Lake Gold and Ramp Metals are highlighted as promising junior mining stocks, with potential for significant returns and buyouts.
Global Geopolitical Tensions
Armstrong claims the World Economic Forum staged a quiet coup to remove Klaus Schwab due to declining influence and backlash over the “you’ll own nothing and be happy” messaging. He identifies rising instability in multiple regions: Ukraine-Russia, the Middle East (Iran-Saudi conflict), India-Pakistan, and intra-European ethnic divides. Armstrong argues that these are not isolated events but symptoms of a “contagion” of old resentments resurfacing globally.
Ukraine Conflict Analysis
He asserts that peace is impossible in Ukraine due to deeply rooted ethnic hatred between eastern and western populations. He claims Russia never wanted to “take over all of Ukraine,” contradicting Western media portrayals. Armstrong attributes the conflict’s escalation to NATO interference and U.S. involvement in the 2014 Maidan coup, referencing public U.S. support during regime change efforts.
Critique of Western Institutions
NATO and Western leaders are portrayed as deliberately provoking war to maintain relevance and funding, with the U.S. being pushed toward a false-flag justification for broader conflict. Armstrong suggests Trump’s desire to exit NATO is legitimate and supported behind the scenes. He claims Schwab’s WF agenda masked an elite-driven debt default, disguised as a “Great Reset” favoring technocratic control.
Gold, Markets, and Monetary Policy
Gold’s recent dip is seen as a short-term signal of potential ceasefires (e.g., Pakistan), not of long-term peace. Central banks are buying gold not for profit but to hedge against geopolitical default risk and currency bifurcation (SWIFT vs. BRICS). Armstrong debunks the idea that gold tracks inflation, citing the 1980–1999 bear market during rising debt and inflation.
The Eurozone’s Structural Flaws
Europe’s refusal to consolidate national debts means any crisis (e.g., Greece 2010) triggers systemic contagion. Armstrong recounts failed efforts to warn EU leaders pre-Euro launch and critiques how bureaucratic goals overrode economic soundness. He contrasts the U.S. model of state-level credit differences within a national currency to Europe’s fragmented sovereign debt system.
Federal Reserve and Debt Market Dynamics
The original Fed design was decentralized and focused on corporate lending, not government bonds—until it was altered by FDR. Rising yields are attributed to war risk and anticipated sovereign defaults, not central bank manipulation alone. Armstrong warns that debt market crashes—not equities—are what truly cause depressions, citing 1931 and 2008 as prime examples.
U.S. Dollar and Global Currency Trust
The U.S. dollar remains the global reserve currency because of trust, legal protections, and currency continuity (e.g., 1800s bills still valid). Other countries frequently cancel currency and restrict access to cash (e.g., Spain, India, Canada), eroding confidence. Digital currencies pushed by the ECB and other globalists are seen as mechanisms for capital control and taxation.
The Big Long Thesis
The report is inspired by The Big Short but takes a bullish stance.
It focuses on gold, silver, miners, commodities, and Bitcoin.
Structural shifts in geopolitics and monetary policy drive the bullish case.
The report argues we are in the early-to-middle stages of a generational gold bull market.
A Golden Decade in Progress
The 2020 report predicted the 2020s would be a golden decade.
Gold has nearly doubled in USD terms since 2020.
This reflects a 50% decline in the dollar’s purchasing power against gold.
In 2024, gold hit 43 new all-time highs.
Gold surpassed the $3,000 mark in 2024.
By early 2025, gold had hit 22 more all-time highs.
Gold rose nearly 30% in USD and 17% in euros during the first four months of 2025.
Public Participation Phase
Gold has entered the second phase of its bull market, known as the public participation phase.
This phase is marked by rising investor interest and trading volume.
Media coverage and public awareness of gold are increasing.
Despite this, gold ownership in the U.S. remains low.
More Americans believe Elvis is alive than own gold.
Gold’s Dual Role in Portfolios
Gold plays both a defensive and offensive role in a portfolio.
Traditional bonds no longer protect against equity volatility.
A new investment strategy is needed due to high debt and inflation.
The report recommends allocating 40% to “performance gold” assets.
These assets include silver, miners, commodities, and Bitcoin.
This forms a revised 60/40 portfolio model suited for today’s market.
Silver: The Sleeping Giant
Silver is underperforming relative to gold.
The gold-silver ratio is around 100, well above the historical norm of 62.
Silver demand has exceeded supply for four straight years.
Silver has historically outperformed gold in most bull markets since 1967.
The report expects silver to rebound and deliver significant returns.
Miners: Coiled Spring of the Bull Market
Gold mining stocks remain far below their previous highs.
The HUI index is still 40% under its 2011 peak.
Mining stocks gained 40% in early 2025.
Miners remain undervalued despite gold’s rally.
Today’s mining firms have stronger financials and better management.
Miners offer leveraged exposure to rising gold prices.
Commodities: Undervalued and Strategic
Commodities are central to the report’s bullish thesis.
Global supply chains are vulnerable.
Resources are increasingly used as geopolitical tools.
China dominates critical mineral processing, posing supply risks.
Military buildup and protectionism are increasing commodity demand.
Fiscal stimulus is another driver of rising resource prices.
Commodities are due for a comeback after a decade of neglect.
Bitcoin: From Anarchy to Statecraft
Bitcoin has gone from fringe asset to strategic reserve.
In 2025, the U.S. created a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Bitcoin was formally separated from other digital assets.
Its unique monetary properties are now recognized by the state.
Bitcoin’s market cap is only 8% of gold’s.
If Bitcoin reaches 50% of gold’s market cap, it could be worth $900,000.
Bitcoin is positioned as a high-upside complement to gold.
Gold provides stability; Bitcoin provides convexity.
Macro Trends and Central Bank Buying
Central banks have bought over 1,000 tons of gold annually for three years.
In 2024, they bought more than $100 billion in gold.
Germany abandoned its fiscal rules to finance $900 billion in spending.
The U.S. ran a $300 billion deficit in February 2025 alone.
U.S. federal spending increased 93% in a decade.
Federal revenue only rose 58% during the same period.
These trends point toward an unsustainable fiscal trajectory.
A New Bretton Woods?
The report suggests a new global agreement may emerge.
It refers to this as a possible “Mar-a-Lago Accord.”
Under this plan, U.S. allies would buy Treasuries in exchange for protection and access.
Gold-backed bonds may be used as an incentive.
Countries that don’t comply could face tariffs or financial penalties.
Managing a controlled U.S. dollar devaluation is difficult and risky.
Such a move could worsen the financial instability it seeks to manage.
Price Outlook and Strategy
The report forecasts gold will reach $4,800 by 2030.
An inflationary environment could push gold to $8,900.
Discipline and strategy are prioritized over price predictions.
Investors are advised to use the Incrementum Active Aurum Signal for guidance.
Staying invested through corrections is encouraged.
The long-term trend favors real assets and monetary discipline.
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