The gold price correction from 4,300 to 4,000 is due to investors facing a maturity wall of leveraged bets, not a change in fundamentals like central bank demand of 1,000 tons/year.
Central banks are rebalancing asset bases towards gold as a real reserve of value due to instability and lack of returns from fiat currencies like the yen, euro, and US dollar.
The strengthening US dollar is driven by the weakening yen and euro, as investors perceive Japan and the euro area as weaker, while the US shows strong growth projections and deficit reduction.
The US dollar remains the world reserve currency in reserves and cross-border payments, supported by Bank of International Settlements, IMF, and Swift data.
The Fed’s decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is expected to provide a tailwind for leveraged investors and boost American consumer families by increasing access to credit.
The neutral rate is around 100 basis points above the current rate, indicating further cuts are likely as tariffs are not causing inflation, and the base effect is no longer effective.
The APEC meeting highlighted positive US-China conversations, with the US aiming to get China addicted to US technology, easing the tariff tantrum.
The S&P 500 is not expensive compared to global peers, especially considering technology companies with higher margins, as the US market offers a liquidity premium.
Societal collapse becomes inevitable with stagnating or declining well-being, creating popular discontent and mass mobilization potential for overthrowing ruling classes.
Elite surplus occurs when there are more elite aspirants than positions, leading to frustrated elites using nonregular or illegal methods to advance their careers.
The Structural-Demographic Theory by Jack Goldstone identifies three key drivers of societal collapse: immiseration, elite surplus, and state weakness.
Societal collapse is a periodic phenomenon, occurring every 100-150 years, as seen in the Roman Empire, Mayan civilization, and the Soviet Union.
Societal unrest and revolution are driven by inequality, elite overproduction, and state weakness, forming a cocktail of nitroglycerin that can explode.
The US is on the brink of societal collapse with increasing immiseration, elite surplus, and state weakness, evidenced by a CEO-to-worker compensation ratio of 400:1.
The US pioneered increasing inequality, beginning 20 years earlier than Germany and 30 years earlier than France, making it more advanced on the road to crisis.
The wealth pump leaves the 99% with stagnant wages while the top 1% corporate elite hoover up the majority of economic growth.
The wealth pump can be shut down by bringing back labor unions, increasing taxes on the rich, and controlling immigration.
The fair share goal aims to ensure workers receive a fair share of economic growth, achievable through unions, taxes, and immigration control.
Historical exits from societal crises involved experimentation and trying different solutions until the right combination was found.
Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 10 years, hitting peak relative strength and signaling a massive breakout.
A gold vs. S&P breakout suggests a significant money rotation out of stocks into gold.
Silver, undervalued compared to gold, is poised for a quantum leap to $150-$200/oz, driven by the breakout of the silver-gold spread.
Gold and silver miners are massively undervalued, with potential for 2x-3x relative performance, driven by historic earnings.
The small market cap of silver miners will be overwhelmed by massive money flows, leading to a quantum leap in prices.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to break out, influenced by commodities like energy, grains, and copper, impacting the real price of goods.
Commodity complex (oil, copper, uranium) turns bullish, potentially driving inflation to alarm levels and affecting CPI numbers.
A recession is predicted by June-July 2026, citing a 10/10 recession odds due to the biggest bubble in US stock market history.
Gold is recommended as money, not an investment, with advice to hold 100% in monetary metals for real protection.
A seismic shift in money flows from stocks to precious metals is anticipated, with silver set for a “quantum leap” catch-up.
Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) by Michael Oliver has been offering unorthodox methodology since 1992, expanding to retail subscribers in 2015.
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