The ratio of average home prices to yearly household income in the US has shifted from 4:1 to 7:1 since the late 1990s, making housing 2 times less affordable and reducing capacity for saving and asset investment.
A stark divergence exists between the blue line of consumer confidence in the stock market (at 30-year highs) and the white line of economic outlook (at 2008 financial crisis levels).
Wealth inequality in the US has reached levels not seen since the 1930s, with the top 0.1% owning a record share of wealth, likely to persist until corporate tax rates increase.
Since 2010, the US stock market has outperformed expectations, growing by nearly 300% after inflation, while real personal income has only increased by about 50%, creating a persistent gap.
The average personal savings rate in the US has declined from 13% to 4% since the 1980s, while corporate profit margins have steadily risen, illustrating a growing divergence between personal and corporate financial health.
$38 trillion US government debt is a massive concern, absorbing real resources and crippling the private sector with rising debt servicing costs.
The Federal Reserve creates higher prices through money printing and interest rate manipulation, distorting income distribution and causing business cycles.
The Fed’s only strategy is printing money via rate cuts, ignoring the disconnect between money supply and prices.
The Austrian School emphasizes deductive reasoning and human action over data sets, warning against government intervention leading to socialism.
The Fed’s reliance on money printing to finance debt could lead to 9% inflation, similar to post-COVID high inflation.
Rising gold and silver prices reflect loss of purchasing power and price distortions in the economy.
China’s strategic economic measures, like refining gold and developing a BRICS currency union, strengthen its global trading position.
Central banks are moving away from the dollar, causing disruptions in Western metals markets with spot prices rising above futures.
Central banks are driving the recent gold price surge by accumulating gold at 90-year-low reserve levels, not retail investors.
The U.S. Treasury may be secretly re-accumulating gold, aligning with the global trend of central banks diversifying reserves.
The gold market is in a “quiet” act of monetary warfare led by central banks, potentially rewriting the mining cost curve and igniting a hard-asset supercycle.
Tavi Costa predicts gold prices will continue to rise due to central bank purchases, transforming the market environment to a $3,000 scenario.
The gold market is expected to rotate towards tangibles like mining and energy, influenced by the AI-era infrastructure boom.
The gold-to-oil ratio is at its second-highest level in history, suggesting oil is undervalued and positioning is extremely bearish.
U.S. oil inventory is at historically low levels, with plans to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, indicating a price floor.
Disciplined value investors may struggle with premature selling in this cycle due to conditioning towards discipline and value investing.
Emerging markets are expected to explode in growth when resource prices rise, making them a focus for smart capital allocators.
The AI-to-mining capital rotation is driven by the urgency to build infrastructure, unlocking significant institutional capital for hard assets.
The coming automation boom in resource extraction will create a deflationary world, favoring companies with high-quality assets operable by robots.
Refactory gold deposits could become economically viable with cost-effective methods like bioleaching using bacteria.
Solar panels are expected to become widespread in sunny regions due to rising energy costs, creating regional disparities in living standards.
Passive seismic surveys provide a 3D image of subsurface structures but require cloud computing for efficient data processing.
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