Bob Moriarty warns of an imminent financial crisis with global liquidity at a critical level, emergency meetings in India, and the US dollar index nearing 100.
AI stocks, like Oracle, face risks due to absurd pricing, high debt-to-equity ratios, and credit default swap premiums.
The UK, France, and Germany are functionally bankrupt, while the US is going $500 billion deeper into debt monthly, signaling a severe liquidity crisis.
In a liquidity crisis, people sell everything, including gold, silver, Bitcoin, and oil, akin to a dog’s instinctive actions.
During the COVID crash of March 2020, silver prices plummeted to $12/oz, with the SPAT silver ETF offering $11/oz, before surging 150% to $30/oz by October 2020.
Bob Moriarty is bullish long-term but bearish short-term on gold, expecting a normal correction after a 9-week price surge.
Contrarian investors can profit from liquidity events causing 85-95% market declines, with historical 150% recoveries in 11 months, as seen in the Dow in 1932-33.
Oil prices are more indicative of geopolitical events in the Middle East rather than a predictor of a liquidity crisis, with limited chances of an attack on Iran.
The US Federal Reserve’s recession model has triggered a critical signal, indicating a 30% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, a rare event historically linked to major economic changes.
The model uses the yield curve, a well-regarded recession indicator, to assess liquidity in the financial system, known for its historical accuracy in predicting downturns.
The tightening of liquidity in 2023 and 2024 has led to a significant rise in the unemployment rate, aligning with past economic recessions, while the current rate remains at a peak.
The Federal Reserve survey indicates that domestic banks maintain tight lending standards, signaling potential challenges for the job market, as these standards predict employment trends.
Despite potential short-term volatility, the S&P 500 shows signs of additional upside, with successful trades in companies like Zcaler, Applied Materials, and PWR delivering double-digit gains.
Gold’s significant post-breakout corrections historically bottom around the 200-day moving average, a pattern observed since the 1970s.
The 200-day moving average has consistently acted as a support level during gold corrections, offering key buying opportunities.
A breakout from a 12-year base against the S&P 500 is anticipated to lead to a gold price surge, targeting $5,000 to $8,000.
The 200-day moving average for gold, currently at $3,340, is projected to rise to $3,600 by end of 2025, serving as a future support level.
A gold breakout against the S&P 500 is expected post a one to two quarters consolidation, leading to the next major price increase.
Cut through the clutter and mainstream media noise. Get free, concise dispatches on vital news, videos and opinions. Delivered to Your email inbox daily. You’ll never miss a critical story, guaranteed.