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Top Three Videos – October 12, 2023

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This is a MUST-Read...

Matthew Piepenburg: Why Did Gold Fall?

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

Despite geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations, gold is expected to rebound and rise in price due to ongoing purchases by sovereigns and central banks, as well as China’s influence and efforts to price gold in their own currency, indicating a need for gold as geopolitical stresses and inflation become more obvious.

Economic Threats and Inflationary Pressures

  • Matthew Piepenburg discusses the fall of gold and its correlation with the oil market and the value of the US dollar.
  • The conflict in Israel is expected to have ripple effects with Iran and other areas, adding to the unknowns and potential inflationary pressures in the US and the West.
  • The longer-term threat lies in the weakening of the US dollar and the Petro dollar, which may have significant implications for the global economy.
  • The oil and energy sector is more powerful than the Federal Reserve, and the US is facing a lot of pressures right now, which could have massive inflationary effects despite the official inflation numbers.
  • The real inflation rate, when measured using the same scale as during the Volcker era, is around 11 to 12% right now, which is significantly higher than the official data provided by the BLS.
  • “It’s like the plane’s crashing. The front tires are rolling down the runway. The engines are a mile and a half back in the woods on fire.” – The current economic situation is far from a soft landing.
  • The combined stock and bond performance in the US was the worst since 1871, indicating a highly correlated fall in both treasuries and stocks last year.
  • “I’ve never seen a macro environment this fragile. This broken and I’ve never seen a debt level so unsustainable as we’re seeing right now again that’s certainly a Tailwind for gold.”
  • According to John Williams or using the vulker scale, the real inflation numbers indicate that we are experiencing 11% to 12% inflation, raising concerns about the impact on individuals.

Gold as a Safe Haven and Protection

  • The current price pullback of gold at $1850 is just a minor setback, with the potential for a strong rebound due to various reasons.
  • “It takes a great deal of personal conviction to stick to your facts, not just gold bug facts, but real hardcore math.”
  • The best days for gold are still ahead, as it continues to outperform risk assets and provides protection against failing bond markets and diluted currencies.

Manipulation of Economic Data and Media Narratives

  • The media’s portrayal of a resilient economy and labor force may not align with the actual situation, suggesting a narrative that serves the interests of political powers rather than reflecting the true state of affairs.
  • The speaker suggests that the manipulation of inflation numbers allows for the declaration of positive real rates, potentially indicating a deliberate effort to mask the negative real rates and maintain control over the economy.

Peter Zeihan: The End of Germany as a Modern Economy

Zeihan on Geopolitics...

Summary

Germany’s economy is at risk of collapse due to its reliance on Russia and China for trade, declining demographics, and insufficient alternative energy sources.

Key insights

  • The end of Germany as a modern economy is imminent.
  • The Germans are starting to inject morality, ethics, and strategic thinking into their trade relationship with China, which is a significant shift.
  • The success of Germany’s trade in the past 20 years is at risk due to the inevitable decline of the Russian and Chinese systems, which will impact their ability to maintain their own infrastructure and sustain their economies.
  • The demographics in Germany, with an aging workforce and declining skilled laborers, will lead to a decrease in workmanship quality and a collapse in the capacity to raise funds for industrial buildup and consumption.
  • Germany’s industrial base is at risk of collapsing within a decade due to its aging population and lack of time to adapt, as its industrial plants are primarily located in Germany and neighboring countries with similar demographics.
  • The current energy system in Germany is not sustainable due to its heavy reliance on non-renewable energy sources.
  • The end of Germany as an ethnicity and industrial power is imminent due to demographics, unresolved European debt crisis, and energy crisis.
  • The Germans chose to prioritize morals and ethics over convenience and wealth by refusing to stab Ukraine in the back and de-industrialize during the energy crisis caused by the shutdown of the Nordstrom pipeline.

Has the Uranium Bull Market Truly Arrived?

Vancouver Resource Investment Conference...

Summary

The uranium market is experiencing a bull market with high demand, potential investment opportunities, and a supply shortfall, making it a promising long-term investment.

Market Trends and Predictions

  • “The year-to-date total of long-term contracted uranium stands at 143.5 million pounds, the most number of pounds contracted in the term Market on an annual basis for more than a decade.”
  • “There is really only so much that fuel buyers and utilities can do in the downturn while they’re burning up their own stock and that is not Eternal and it’s coming home to roost finally.”
  • “I’m really W on the US to do something special here in this cycle.” – The speaker expresses optimism and high expectations for the uranium market in the United States.
  • “So has the train left the station. Yes are we anywhere close to that quote unquote blowoff top in the final innings in the investment. No and that’s really where all the fireworks happen.”
  • The train has already left the station for uranium, suggesting that it is not too late to invest in the sector as it is expected to continue rising.
  • The purchase of just 1 or 2 200,000 pounds of uranium in the spot market can already move the price, highlighting the potential for a substantial effect if money flows into these funds.
  • The scarcity of uranium supply and the necessity for utilities to have fuel for nuclear power plants will drive up prices in the industry.
  • “I think $100 a pound is absolutely a given here and uh how far it overshoots to the upside is anyone’s guess.”

Impact of Nuclear Energy and SMRs

  • The speaker expects the uranium bull market to continue for at least the next three to five years, with the potential for even longer due to the introduction of SMRs (Small Modular Reactors).
  • “We’re on the cusp of a potential super cycle for the commodity due to the global embrace of nuclear energy and the increasing number of countries operating or considering nuclear power.”
  • “An incredible drisk demand picture where we’re looking at the largest Fleet in the world. In the US now has the inflation reduction act and every single reactor operator is looking at Life. Extensions.”
  • The demand for uranium is expected to increase as more SMRs are being constructed globally, leading to a potential shortage in the market.

Factors Influencing Uranium Prices

  • “We spend probably 80 to 90% of our time researching the physical market so we want to know what’s happening, how many pounds are being traded, who’s selling, who’s buying, and at what price.”
  • The geology of uranium mining plays a significant role in determining the success of companies in the industry, with the focus being on areas like the Athabasca Basin.
  • “The ultimate exit that really is only going to come down to recognizing what’s happening in the physical Market… It’s important to have a network of contacts that can communicate directly with traders that are in the market and understand okay. The hedge funds are starting to sell down their physical uranium that’s a signal.”
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