The US economy faces a “toxic mix” of problems in stock markets, credit, trade, and housing, as artificial supports like fiscal stimulus, AI capex, and illegal immigration turn into headwinds.
Non-farm payroll numbers were artificially inflated by about 1 million jobs, with QCW data showing a 7-sigma disparity, indicating potential statistical incompetence or fraud.
The real estate market is rolling over, with a record-wide gap of about 500,000 homes between starts construction, homes for sale, and homes sold.
The AI bubble resembles the dotcom bubble, with capex and revenues out of sync, and AI chips becoming stranded and worthless after 3 years due to depreciation and power consumption.
The Fed has already cut interest rates twice, with the 3-month T-bill at a 52-week low and the 10-year yield below 4%, while high-yield credits are breaking a 4-month trend.
The US dollar is bullish due to a global dollar liquidity shortage, with a four-year cycle low in September and a long-term rising trend since the Great Financial Crisis.
The Chinese economy faces severe challenges, including a demographic wall since 2020, collapsing internal demand, a brewing real estate crisis, and accelerating exports to maintain industrial capacity.
The price of oil is expected to drop to $30, signaling global demand problems and Chinese economic issues, which will correct high prices and lead to a new boom.
Gold is bullish long-term due to global reordering and its recent tier-one capital status, with expectations to reach $10,000 by 2030.
The private credit market is opaque and highly leveraged, with $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt, potentially more precarious than the subprime crisis of 2007.
The wealth gap has grown larger than ever since the Great Financial Crisis, potentially leading to political movements and populism on both ends of the spectrum.
The economy faces an 80-90% chance of recession by 2026, with unemployment expected to rise above 5% in the next year, potentially triggering panic rate cuts by the Fed.
Unprecedented physical demand for gold and silver reflects deep public distrust in financial institutions and paper assets, with 25% allocation to gold recommended by institutional traders.
The US dollar’s original definition as 371.25 grains of silver highlights the shift from tangible wealth to acceptance of paper and digital representations as substitutes for truth.
LBMA backwardation between spot and futures for 18 consecutive days, with a $1.24 difference, signals a panic for physical silver and a non-functioning market.
Bank of America forecasts silver to reach $65 per ounce by next year, with an average of $56.25, and gold to hit $5,000, indicating extremely bullish sentiment.
The Fed’s repo facility running dry and banks pawning off risky mortgage-backed securities instead of safe treasuries are signs of stress in the banking system.
Commercial real estate problems are expected to worsen as companies realize remote work productivity, creating a significant issue for banks.
Managed money is short by over $1 billion on silver, while commercial banks took the opposite position, an unusual situation that could drive silver prices higher.
Physical demand for silver is unprecedented, with institutional-level recommendations for 25% gold allocation, a historically significant shift.
AI-generated deep fake technology enables the spread of false information using famous people’s voices and images, making it difficult even for sophisticated investors to discern truth from deception.
In an age of deception, it’s crucial to fact-check and conduct due diligence when consuming information, especially from sources like YouTube and social media.
Miles Franklin, one of only 27 authorized US Mint resellers, is licensed, bonded, and background-checked by Minnesota, ensuring integrity in precious metals transactions.
Violent 5% gold sell-off signals a “dash for cash” and forced liquidation event, mirroring March 2020 market conditions.
Prime borrower delinquencies in auto loans are rapidly increasing, indicating consumer stress and potential credit market issues.
Banks employing “extend and pretend” tactics to conceal a brewing credit event, likely to expose “more cockroaches” in public markets.
Bond market early warnings of recession, with 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4% and holding.
Consumer cracking evidenced by prime borrowers experiencing most rapid increase in auto loan delinquencies.
Fed “flying blind” due to data vacuum, with delayed September jobs report and CPI data not available until October 24th.
Fed likely forced to halt Quantitative Tightening (QT) due to financial system stress, not because inflation fight is won.
Credit spreads widening and resumed increase in MOVE index will signal system breakdown and Fed’s loss of control.
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