China showcased latest military equipment and unmanned submarines at Beijing’s SEO summit and military parade, potentially for retaliatory strikes against the US and allies.
The Middle East is considered a safer zone due to strong trade relations between Israel and UAE, and a large Iranian population preventing retaliation against Israel.
The US Treasury aims to accumulate gold before revaluing it, having been buyers of gold through the banking system when Trump became president.
Real money supply, the best leading indicator of economic activity, is falling globally and in America, signaling an imminent recession.
Risk of capital controls in Europe is high due to EU3 leaders moving into Ukraine with American equipment support.
American institutions and pension funds will be forced to allocate assets into the treasury market as traditional foreign holders become sellers.
Temperature changes are a crucial variable in the current fourth turning cycle, leading to a permanent decline in demand for food, energy, and resources.
The global economy is starting to come apart, with two massive events expected in the coming months according to elite insiders.
The jobs market is weakening, with 1 million fewer jobs than expected, signaling economic weakness while the stock market remains overvalued relative to economic indicators, risking repricing.
The quits rate has collapsed to pre-COVID levels, indicating tremendous job insecurity despite soaring asset prices, casting doubt on the accuracy of the 4.3% unemployment rate.
Millions of people outside the labor force contribute to understating the true weakness in the labor market, despite the official unemployment rate of 4.3%.
Fed rate cuts will provide liquidity offset, reduce borrowing costs, and offer relief to stressed corporate and consumer sectors, potentially validating elevated asset prices.
Reshoring of manufacturing is a long-term process, not an immediate economic boost, with weak capex plans in the NFIB survey and unimpressive capital spending numbers.
The end of globalization will lead to higher production costs, increased economic demand for liquidity, and greater financial market volatility as the US shifts towards domestic production.
The framework for investing is ending due to rising cost of capital, increasing inflation, and reimporting the natural business cycle as manufacturing is reshored.
The transition to a new workforce will take multi-years to reskill and find placement in new industries as the economy shifts away from globalization.
Housing market pressures from high costs and job losses could trigger a housing bubble burst, potentially leading to a “parade of horribles” scenario.
Gold prices have barely started their move, with the gold price relative to total holdings of gold ETFs still in early stages, primarily driven by non-Western investors.
Corporate credit risks from $1 trillion in debt due and fading “extend-and-pretend” practices could quickly become a major issue, especially as corporate profit margins are squeezed.
Aggressive stimulus is likely in response to economic challenges, but persistent deficits may continue to be an issue.
The potential “parade of horribles” scenario, including recession, market correction, housing bubble burst, and unemployment spike, could have devastating consequences for asset prices at current valuations.
Satire
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