The market is extremely overbought with all asset classes surging together, indicating a 5-10% correction is likely according to the risk range report.
The accumulator model, a basic portfolio for new investors, is up 6.5% in 15 days, signaling unusual speculative activity.
The market is not bearish, but an overbought condition will likely lead to a 3-5% correction, providing an opportunity to put more capital to work.
The market’s bullish bias and moving averages provide lifting support, making a 5-10% correction normal, while a bigger correction requires more bearish crossovers.
The economy is slowing down more quickly, with weaker inflation data, employment revisions, and PPI data, favoring bonds.
42% of CPI is driven by housing-related costs, which are declining due to housing market data, leading to a decline in inflation and lower bond yields.
Corporate profit margins are diverging from GDP, with elevated estimates for 2026 that will likely come down as the economy slows.
Reimporting manufacturing will increase business cycle volatility in the US, due to manufacturing’s 3-4 dollar multiplier effect on the economy.
The Simplevisor portfolios, launched on August 1st, have seen significant gains, with the AI portfolio up 7%, the all-weather portfolio up 5%, and the accumulator model up 6.5%.
The risk range report measures sector performance against historical volatility and moving averages to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Bonds will benefit from a risk-off environment in stocks, as investors seek safety and income in the bond market.
Stock buybacks are fading in impact due to diminishing returns, requiring larger and larger buybacks to achieve the same effect.
The US Treasury market remains healthy despite narratives of declining demand, with foreign holders of bonds unchanged and 70-80% of all foreign transactions still in fiat currencies.
The US is flirting with a recession, while the rest of the world is in worse shape, leading foreign capital to seek shelter in US Treasury bonds.
The dollar’s weakness is historically non-correlated with gold prices, meaning gold’s value is not directly tied to the dollar’s strength or weakness.
The NASA announcement about potential life on Mars is a significant discovery with implications for the search for extraterrestrial life.
The fourth turning framework suggests societies go through cycles of crisis, with increasing violence and unrest in the US echoing the 1960s.
Financial education is crucial for empowering individuals to make informed decisions about their financial futures and feel less financially desperate.
The BIS recognizing physical gold as a tier one asset on bank balance sheets signals a major shift away from US Treasury bonds, indicating a significant change in global economic power dynamics.
BRICS countries are creating a smaller system of regional currencies tied to gold for trade settlement, circumventing US dollar dominance and establishing a new monetary order.
The US dollar has lost 99% of its purchasing power over the last 54 years, leading to discussions of gold revaluation and gold-backed US Treasury as headline policy.
Gold has outperformed the S&P in real and risk-adjusted terms over the last quarter century, despite being labeled as too volatile in private wealth management.
The US public debt of $37 trillion makes it impossible to fight inflation through traditional means, as raising interest rates now becomes an inflationary event due to the cost of money created out of thin air.
The Fed’s low rates and credit expansion debase the dollar, increasing inflation risk, while the massive public debt traps the US in a “slow frog boil” scenario.
The weaponization of the US dollar against Russia in 2022 accelerated de-dollarization, alternative currency arrangements, and gold accumulation by central banks, particularly in eastern countries.
Wealthiest cars in Zurich bearing Ukrainian license plates suggest corrupt deals and stolen US taxpayer money being hidden in Switzerland.
The stablecoin behind Tether, a programmable and trackable crypto, can be used for “perfect control” over a population when issued by commercial banks or fintech companies.
IMF, Fed, World Bank, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs face an “uh-oh moment” due to their arrogance in currency and monetary policies, accumulating “sins” of perceived impunity.
The US dollar is no longer trusted as a store of value due to excessive debt, weaponization, and deflationary policies, with the BIS’s recognition of gold as a tier one asset confirming this decline in trust and power.
The three stages of hyperinflation, observed by Ludwig von Mises during German hyperinflation, progress from government money creation to accelerated spending and price increases, ultimately leading to a rapid decrease in money demand.
Massive government debt and unchecked money printing are the two primary ingredients for hyperinflation, symbolized by red and green combining to form brown, indicating the US’s current trajectory.
More than half of the US population has experienced significant impoverishment since the COVID outbreak due to the massive increase in money supply and expanded federal budget.
The Federal Reserve’s true mandate is to finance government debt and bail out Wall Street, not control inflation or ensure employment, as admitted by Jay Powell in private meetings.
A mass pivot away from trust in the dollar and US Treasury is occurring due to currency debasement, geopolitical chaos, and sanctions, leading to a loss of faith even among central banks.
Central banks are replacing US dollar assets with gold on their balance sheets, contributing to the massive increase in gold and silver prices.
The Magnificent 7 stocks are now selling at a ratio of 7 to 1 over buying, indicating they’re no longer market darlings and may soon decline.
Big players like Russia and Saudi Arabia are moving from the stock market into physical silver due to high gold prices.
The gold-silver ratio has fallen from over 100:1 to 86:1 in three months, suggesting silver’s value is increasing relative to gold.
States may threaten secession from the United States to prevent hyperinflation, potentially forcing politicians to take action.
Tools like Glint Pay allow individuals to transact in sound money, providing a means to protect against monetary chaos.
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