Top Three Videos – September 20, 2026
Tavi Costa: AI Is Creating a Massive Opportunity in Mining...(September 18, 2026)
VRIC Media...
Summary
Costa argues the Fed is likely “one hike and done” and that policymakers are approaching the point where they can no longer afford to fight inflation, so his base case is that they will change how inflation is calculated and inflate away the system’s imbalances rather than risk a deflationary shock, with yield curve control far larger than the current Treasury buybacks available if needed. He sees a dangerous gap between a 10-year yield above 5% (a “PE of 20” on Treasuries) and equity CAPE ratios near 40, peak-cycle earnings driven by AI, a labor market rolling over, and structural inflation rooted in debt that inevitably produces wars. His conclusion is that mining, about 1% of global equity market cap, can go to double digits as the AI buildout demands metals and energy the constrained supply curve cannot deliver, and he is launching a mining-focused fund in October.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Yields versus valuations: A 5% 10-year yield implies a Treasury “multiple” of about 20 against equity multiples near 40, and with earnings growth the strongest in history yet cyclical, investors will increasingly do the math on risking capital for less than 5%. Costa expects the 10-year to peak soon if this is a single hike.
- Policymakers showing their hands: Signs include yen intervention, Treasury buybacks doubling every two weeks, the purchase of Argentine pesos to support Milei, and open administration pressure to lower yields. He says people underestimate how “clever” policymakers can be, noting 40% of all dollars were printed during COVID.
- AI spending will not stop: Costa dismisses AI CEOs’ extinction warnings as partly cover for IPOs and hard-to-justify capex returns, comparing the buildout to wartime spending that continues until the war ends and can be funded by government printing. The asymmetric way to express an AI view is through miners, since there is no mine pipeline, no discoveries and no exploration spending for the next 5 to 15 years.
- If the AI bubble pops: He believes miners are more likely to “join the party” than get dragged down, because unlike 2008 the setup is inflationary with a constrained supply curve, and he would not sell a dime even if miners fell 30 to 40% alongside an 80 to 90% tech crash.
- Commodity scorecard: Oil has had its run and his exposure is drastically reduced as Permian drilling quietly rises; copper is a 7 out of 10 and about 20% of his metals book; tungsten deserves first-principles financial analysis rather than “is it critical” narrative investing. Silver miners are his top interest, with some holding 10% of market cap in cash and generating another 10% a year at 40% average free cash flow margins, and he is buying gold and silver miners rather than the metals themselves.
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Martin Armstrong: SAUDI OIL OUTPUT COLLAPSES, GLOBAL ENERGY CRISIS WORSENS...(September 11, 2026)
Mario Nawfal...
Summary
Armstrong argues the Iran war has become normalized because the US is insulated from it, but his computer model shows the conflict extending into 2028 with oil potentially hitting $200 a barrel, a global recession running into 2028, and a broader crisis of confidence in government lasting to 2032 that will force political change, possibly toward Swiss-style direct democracy. He says Iran will not surrender because it only needs to survive to achieve a “reverse regime change” against Netanyahu and Trump before the midterms, while two-thirds of the US missile stockpile is gone and would take two to three years to replenish. He warns that Treasury Secretary Bessent’s “I am the house” posturing repeats the Plaza Accord and Rubin mistakes that produced the 1987 crash and the 1997 Asian crisis, because rates always rise in wartime, sanctions never work, and once markets see a government cannot control the trend it is “Katie bar the door.”
Top 5 Key Topics
- Energy shock is in refined products, not crude: Saudi output collapsed to 6.24 million barrels per day in August, the lowest since 1990, the East-West pipeline was shut by a Houthi attack, and Zelensky’s strikes on Russian refineries have pushed US diesel above $6 a gallon for the first time. Armstrong says Thailand and Taiwan cannot fuel motorbikes or fishing boats, Vancouver cancelled Air Canada flights to JFK, and he had to charter a jet in Europe because short flights were cut to save fuel.
- Iran’s strategy and Trump’s corner: Rubio and Ratcliffe opposed the strikes, sanctions were adopted because “the bombs aren’t working,” and Trump has admitted nothing will resolve before the midterms. Armstrong compares Iran’s tactics to 1979, when hostages were released the day Reagan was elected.
- Bessent and the confidence game: The 10-year note crossed 4.9%, up 95 basis points since the war began, and Armstrong says Bessent, from the “Soros crowd” of market manipulators, cannot stop rates any more than the G7 stopped the dollar’s slide after the 1987 Louvre Accord. Weaponizing finance via SWIFT and sanctions, as Blinken did, only pushed the world into BRICS and China’s CIPS system.
- Debt and the political system: Global sovereign debt is approaching $400 trillion, government consumes about 35% of US GDP versus 52% in Europe (“Europe is so screwed”), and Trump’s offer of $5,000 to voters is the most overt vote-buying he has ever seen. A gold standard is impossible without changing politics first, since debt has been rolled since WWII with no intention of repayment and QE failed because China sold its 30-year bonds into it.
- Cycles of revolution and Milton Friedman: Armstrong says political change is contagious (Rome 509 BC to Athens, 1776 to 1789, Tiananmen to the Berlin Wall) and that republican forms of government will likely collapse into this crisis. He recounts Friedman telling him after a Chicago lecture that Armstrong was living out the 1953 floating-exchange-rate theory that currency markets would discipline governments.
Francis Hunt vs Simon Dixon: DEBATE: Is Bitcoin The Escape Or The Trap?...(September 18, 2026)
CapitalCOSM...
Summary
Francis Hunt argues that all digitization of money is a power grab by a transnational banking cartel that will never let people have their own money, and that Bitcoin is the “trainer bicycle wheels” on-ramping the public into a surveillance grid, a controlled-opposition asset whose orbit (Adam Back, Blockstream, Epstein funding, BlackRock ETFs, Michael Saylor) is tarnished and whose 70% drawdowns hit exactly when people need liquidity most. Simon Dixon agrees digitization is a power grab and that stablecoins and CBDCs are the control grid, but contends Bitcoin was a breakaway privacy project (he thinks Len Sassaman and Hal Finney were more likely Satoshi than Back), that 17 years of infiltration attempts by the CIA, Epstein-linked money, MIT Labs and Wall Street have failed to change its 21 million cap, and that it will outperform gold over the next decade. Both agree cash must be defended, that Saylor’s Strategy looks like an infiltration op, and that most holders are doing exactly what the system wants by holding ETF and custodial IOUs instead of self-custodying.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Digitization as the master power grab: Hunt says physical cash is the only anonymous money and “the cure to the disease nobody felt sick by,” warning of withdrawal caps (500 euros in Greece), banks blocking his bullion purchases, negative rates disguised as “disinflation,” China-style social credit, and real-time taxation. He calls for pushing back at the gate, even if it means being on the wrong side of the law.
- Who was Satoshi and was Bitcoin captured: Hunt cites linguistic analysis pointing to Adam Back, “who was on Epstein Island,” as the white paper author within a collective. Dixon counters that Back ignored Satoshi’s August 2008 email and only surfaced in 2013, that Blockstream did take Epstein-linked funding in 2014, and that Sassaman’s suicide one month after Gavin Andresen met In-Q-Tel (the CIA’s VC arm) fits the Satoshi timeline better.
- E-gold and Liberty Dollar versus Bitcoin: Hunt argues those fully backed projects were shut down as “domestic terrorism” while Bitcoin survives, which proves it is approved and captured. Dixon responds that those had a company, a person and a bank to attack, and that he personally has friends in prison, businesses shut down, licenses rejected by the Bank of England and the IMF coming after him.
- Bitcoin as a store of value with a high beta: Hunt says Bitcoin fell to roughly $4,000 from $12,000 during COVID while gold dipped only 13%, so it behaves like an exploration mining stock and should be held only in small speculative amounts, not as Saylor’s “own nothing else” money. Dixon says Bitcoin is a $1.6 trillion asset versus gold’s $30 trillion, has recently correlated more with gold than tech, and that not selling at the bottom is an asset-management question.
- Why central banks buy gold, not Bitcoin: Hunt says China and Russia, “the inside cartel who do what they do, not what they say,” are buying gold and shunning Bitcoin for a reason, likely surveillance and control. Dixon notes Iran is the largest sovereign miner and kept its Bitcoin when Tether froze its stablecoins, El Salvador holds about 7,000 BTC in self-custody despite IMF pressure, and the US strategic reserve is designed to hold confiscated coins at Coinbase.