Top Three Videos – September 29, 2026
Brent Johnson: How the U.S. power move in Greenland impacts your Portfolio in the modern day Game of Thrones...(September 27, 2026)
Milkshake Pod...
Summary
Brent Johnson argues that the week’s real story was not the mostly-for-optics Trump–Chairman Xi summit but the new permanent US–Greenland defense agreement signed on the 22nd, which he sees as proof that we are in a “Game of Thrones” world where the map is being redrawn, driven not by Trump personally but by a globe awash in debt now facing higher rates. He says his April “last ships” thesis, that the Strait of Hormuz closure would starve fields of fertilizer and turn into a food story, is partly playing out, with wheat up 10-15% and corn up roughly 20% since he started buying, even though US yields have so far come in better than expected. He mocks Morgan Stanley for abandoning the consensus weak-dollar call just as the 10-year yield hits 5.16% and the dollar looks overbought, warning that if there is no dollar pullback before the election six weeks away, people should “put on your seat belt and pray for the world.”
Top 5 Key Topics
- Game of Thrones geopolitics: Johnson says anyone who dismisses Trump’s talk about Greenland, Panama, Canada and others as bluster is “naive,” and he believes the rules-based order is coming down no matter who is in office. He says the root cause is excessive debt in China, Europe, Japan, South America and the US, combined with rising rates, and the key question is who gives in to the pain first.
- The new Greenland agreement: The deal updates the 1941, 1951 and 2004 arrangements by making US access permanent even if NATO dissolves or Greenland leaves Denmark, changing “may enjoy” to “shall enjoy,” adding new defense areas beyond Thule, allowing undersea operations without permission, and giving the US a veto over any non-NATO bases or investment. Greenland holds about 1.5 million tons of rare earths and the eighth-largest deposit in the world, and on the news the critical metals index rose 25%, USA Rare Earth rose 6% and MP Materials rose 4%.
- Grains of Wrath: He links food to revolt, citing the Arab Spring and the plot of Red Dawn, where a Russian wheat failure triggers the invasion of the US, and argues Hormuz matters more for food than for energy. He admits the thesis is not a victory lap, since enough nitrogen and inventory reached US fields, though Europe had a worse season, and he expects the full answer over the next four to five months into early 2027.
- Dollar milkshake and yields: The 10-year closed at 5.16% and the 30-year is at its highest in 20-25 years, with the euro, pound and yen at stochastic lows and dollar stochastics around 96, which he says vindicates his dollar milkshake theory from eight years ago. He expects a short-term pullback into the election and warns against shorting bonds here, because “literally everybody is short bonds.”
- Gold and copper crosscurrents: Gold’s 50-day moving average just crossed above the 100-day in a golden cross while the price sits below all three averages, so he would not be surprised by a short-term bounce but does not expect a quick return to February levels. Copper sits near all-time highs with the strongest long-term fundamentals he has ever seen, but positioning is so extreme that he says it “should scare the hell out of you” in the short term.
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Jordan Roy-Byrne: If You Own Silver or Gold, Watch This Before October...(Sept 25, 2026)
TheDailyGold...
Summary
Jordan Roy-Byrne argues that gold and silver are correcting in time rather than price because short-term fundamentals are negative: the yield curve is flattening, real rates are rising, and the Fed began a new hiking cycle about a week and a half ago. He points to 1999, 2004 and 2015-16, when gold bottomed within two to three weeks of the first hike, and to the 80% move in 23 months after the 2018 peak in the 2-year yield and the 65% move after 2007, concluding that the real upside comes once the Fed stops hiking. He thinks the price low is likely in, but expects a two-to-four-month sideways “headache zone,” and he calls this a buying opportunity in quality junior miners, since precious metals ETF allocation is only a fraction of its 2011 peak.
Top 5 Key Topics
- Fed hiking cycle as gold’s catalyst: Gold declined into the start of this hiking cycle, which matches 1999, 2004 and 2015-16, unlike 2022 when it rallied into the first hike. He says gold should make a low, then grind higher, and move more impulsively once the Fed is done, whether that is after the priced-in October hike or in December.
- Volatility needs time to reset: The gold VIX (GVZ) has fallen from 45 at the peak to 22, its lowest since the start of the year, and 40-week Bollinger bandwidth has fallen from over 60 to 28. He says these indicators need to stabilize a bit more before the next major advance, which is a function of time rather than price.
- Key levels for silver and gold: Silver stabilized around 63, faces resistance at 70, and has a 200-day moving average near 72, while gold slipped back below its flattening 200-day. He says flat moving averages mean a sideways market that needs to digest the huge prior moves.
- Underinvestment in precious metals: He calculates that global ETF allocation to precious metals is about 3.7%, up from about 2%, compared with roughly 14.5% at the 2011 secular peak. Calum Thomas’s US implied allocation is about 1.8% against more than 8% at the peak, which he says leaves huge room for capital inflows.
- Miners’ relative strength and “build your own GDXJ”: Unlike 2007-08, when miners lagged gold, GDX has broken out of a 13-year base against gold even though gold is 24-26% off its high, with GDX down about 14% and GDXJ about 15%. His bearish short-term case is gold falling to 4,000 and GDXJ breaking below 115 to fill a gap, but he says long-term holders should own the best individual juniors rather than the ETFs, targeting 3x to 10x returns over two to three years.
Jay Martin: America vs. Europe: Which is Canada's future partner?...(September 25, 2026)
The Jay Martin Show...
Summary
Jay Martin argues that the August 22 collapse of Canada–US trade talks, which brought 50% tariffs after Washington demanded veto power over Canada’s trade deals, is a replay of the 1971 Nixon tariff crisis, and that Canada is again choosing Mitchell Sharp’s “Third Option” of diversifying toward Europe. He says the 1970s version failed because Canada signed agreements without building the infrastructure to ship goods elsewhere, and roughly 70% of Canadian exports still go to the US five decades later. Carney is running the strategy in reverse by pursuing EU “associate membership,” which Canada itself proposed, and by using a new productivity mega deduction and a Toronto summit of investors managing over $100 trillion to fund ports, pipelines, mines and railways, but Martin insists success will be measured only by what actually gets built and whether Canada and all 27 EU countries can withstand American pressure.
Top 5 Key Topics
- What Washington demanded: Beyond the 50% tariffs, the US wanted Canada to match American tariffs and sanctions on other countries, end Buy Canadian policies, and give American buyers first rights to Canadian uranium, cobalt and lithium. Martin says this last demand “buys the veto,” meaning Canada would still own and pay for its mines but need another country’s permission to sell the output.
- The failed Third Option of the 1970s: After Nixon’s 10% import tariff in August 1971, Sharp laid out three options in 1972, and Ottawa created a foreign takeover screening agency, founded Petro-Canada, and signed a 1976 agreement with the European Community, but the trade never followed. Mulroney abandoned the policy in 1984 for deeper integration and free trade, which led critics to wear “51st state” badges mocking him, a joke that is now a real threat.
- EU associate membership: In October 2025 Carney appointed diplomat John Hannaford as special envoy to study the EU arrangements of the UK, Norway, Switzerland and Georgia, and last week Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the EU’s first associate member, a category that does not yet exist. A senior Canadian official told the Wall Street Journal that Canada proposed the idea, and Trump called it a possible hostile act and threatened Europe with tariffs.
- The Toronto investment summit: On September 15 Canada hosted the largest investment summit in its history, with more than 100 major investors from at least 11 countries, including BlackRock’s Larry Fink, Blackstone’s Jon Gray, Deutsche Bank, and the Singapore and Norway sovereign funds. The largest national contingent was 33 American firms, so Martin notes Canada may end up using American private capital to reduce the American government’s leverage.
- Productivity mega deduction and the infrastructure test: The tax change lets companies deduct major new investments faster, giving Canada the lowest effective tax rate on new investment of any major economy at less than half the US rate, and it targets mining, refineries, processing plants, pipelines, railways and manufacturing. Martin frames it through Carney’s line that middle powers are either at the table or on the menu, but warns that without the physical buildout and a united Europe, the announcements “mean nothing.”