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The End Of The Recovery, In One Chart

One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.

But for the past year sales have declined while reported employment has risen. Unless this relationship no longer holds, one of these lines will have to change course very soon. And since sales are beyond anyone’s control, it’s a safe bet that employment will be the one to give.

Sales vs employment

15 thoughts on "The End Of The Recovery, In One Chart"

  1. Wait until the systemic collapse of the generational debt bubble and on the other side more consolidated wealth and A.I. Fueled oligarchy.

    If people are not stacking real wealth now get ready for permanent serfdom.

    1. Thanks for your perspective QE….relax folks, its only money, er um..I meant “only currency” that is, “only a medium of exchange” Got to remember that even in the huge upcoming deflationary depression, the sun will still rise and birds will sing in spring (even if you are homeless with no food)

      1. Bill-Who is going to pay to decommission all the nuclear power plants during the coming 30 year depression? Up until recently, Japan was the 2nd wealthiest nation on Earth. Now one has to wonder if they have the resources to decommission all of their own plants.

        One of two things are going to happen. The most likely is that the plants don’t get properly decommissioned, hopelessly polluting the planet, except for microbes and cockroaches. The lesser possibility is that a one world commie government takes over everything, kind of like the book ‘1984’.

        Probably be best to set up your family far from the Northern Hemisphere. This would be true for either of the outcomes mentioned above.

          1. As if South America is going to be safer – it’s ALREADY unsafe in most countries and in the others it’s getting there.

          2. What is ‘safe’? There is always danger everywhere. The difference is in most of SA, there are no nukes (so no nuke wars) and they are not as tied to electricity everywhere, so a failure of the net/grid will not kill them all off.

          3. Are you actually serious bringing up nukes? LOL. Listen, QT, if nukes rain down then the world is screwed, period. Forget those. And I was not referring to the grid – so what? I’m referring to the violence ongoing in those countries because of their poor economies, which has nothing to do with either of the things you mentioned. Tell you what – why don’t you move to the barrios of Rio de Janiero for a month and then get back to me on how safe it is in that sh1thole.

          4. Are you familiar with ‘cycles theory’? If you are than you should be aware that we are presently in a growing ‘war cycle’. The idea that some ‘rogue nation’ (or ISIS) might not launch a dirty bomb, or attack the power grid (both physical attacks and cyber intrusions have already occurred) is not so far fetched. Taunting the Chinese ‘islands’ with carrier groups, or sailing/flying into the now Russian-led sorties in Syria may not be best practices either.

            In 1963 it took only ONE man on a Soviet nuke sub off the coast of Cuba to prevent the start of WWIII when his other two compatriots lost their resolved. Today is not much different if tensions run high due to provocations.

            Finally, Rio’s favelas are not endemic of all of Central and South America. I travel to Mexico and parts of SA every year. I use the same prudence I would use traveling to NYC or NOLA. I have yet to feel unsafe. Your example is one of myopia and US press hysteria. Get a passport. Go travel. Never know what you may learn out there.

  2. Perhaps another, perhaps better, indicator of “bubble” dynamics is when ordinary, rational, common-sense, knowledge-based, historical, mathematical, etc. reasoning no longer applies.

    1. It is amazing how people are capable of adapting so well.I mean,if someone told you 10 years ago,that the Fed would create $trillions of fiat Dollars,no one would have believed you and in any case,would have predicted a Dollar crash,if the Fed did it.Now,everyone loves the Dollar.Amazing.

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