Written by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com:
So, every Sunday morning I sit down to write a few short thoughts.
Sometimes these thoughts end up being about life, other times they are on gold, geopolitical issues affecting the markets, or the economy.
Here are three thoughts for this morning:
1. This is how you know NO ONE knows what will happen next.
Hang up the disco ball, and turn on Boney M.’s Rasputin for this one, or take a shot. Your choice.
Google News is now serving up Polymarket gambling odds alongside actual journalism.
This is how you now know NO ONE knows what will happen next.
Futurism reports:
Google News Now Prominently Featuring Polymarket Bets
“The bets often appear in the “For you” section of Google News, which is tailored to a user’s personal interests. In one instance, it was even the very top result, as with this bet on the price of Bitcoin.
In our testing, Polymarket bets are also showing up on the Google News home page.
But links from the prediction market can pop up all over Google News, including in searches. In further tests, looking up “will ships transit the strait,” referring to the Strait of Hormuz, returned numerous credible sources like Financial Times, The Guardian, and Reuters. Just below them, however, was a Polymarket bet on the number of ships that would be allowed to pass through the critical oil passageway.”
Prediction markets dress speculation in the language of analysis fixing percentages to geopolitical chaos as if crowd-sourced gambling is wisdom. It’s more like the Gonzo reporting of Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas entering the world of every day news.
This is what happens when the financialization of everything is taken to its logical conclusion: Even uncertainty itself becomes a product to trade with people betting their future on whatever may be… Because right now, the future is as wildly unpredictable.
For most people, desperation may as well be exciting. *shrug*
2. The bond vigilantes are more patient than ever, and they’re just getting organized. Now, patience is a great strategy, but it’s missing one element…
Japan’s yield curve is screaming what the BOJ won’t admit. The 10-year at 2.43%, the highest since 1997. The 30-year at 3.76%, all-time record territory. That’s a steep curve on a country carrying the worst debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world, with inflation running at 3.4%.
Bond math is brutal. Steeper curves mean rising debt servicing costs, which means more bond issuance, which means even higher yields. It’s a self-reinforcing spiral. The BOJ owns 50% of all JGBs and still can’t control its own curve.
The bond vigilantes are more patient than ever, and they’re just getting organized. I don’t blame them. Patience is a great strategy, but it’s missing one element…
3. Gold IS the strategy.
For the first time since Nixon slammed the gold window shut in 1971, global gold reserves have eclipsed adjusted dollar reserves.
That orange line shows you the big picture. It shows where and what the world is moving toward. Central banks, led by China’s 17 consecutive months of gold purchases, have been quietly voting against the dollar system with every quarterly report. They’re not doing this by accident. Gold doesn’t need Washington’s permission. The rest of the world has already made its move.
Stackers who made theirs early are watching their patience turn into wealth.
