Written by Bryan Lutz, Editor at Dollarcollapse.com:
Our governments are front-running the global copper shortage with hoarding behavior.
Here’s some interesting info on the copper supply:
The world needs 8 million tonnes of new copper mining capacity by 2035. Yet, the industry’s invested barely a third of the $210 billion required to deliver it. What makes the shortage even more interesting it takes up to 30 years to permit and build a new mine in the US. You can do the math. There is no scenario in which supply catches demand for at least a generation
Now here are some interesting recent headlines…
On one hand, global copper stockpiles have risen to 1 million tonnes for the first time in 21 years. For example, the US is stockpiling copper like it’s getting ready for something, having nearly doubled imports to 1.7 million tonnes last year.
Warehouses are full.
Prices are pulling back.
China’s demand looks soft…
And copper smelter activity in January hit the lowest level on record. Chile’s output declined five straight months too. Grasberg, the second-largest copper mine on the planet, is shut down. At a casual glance, all signs point to oversupply and a bearish outlook for copper, but it is not…
Growing stockpiles are hoarding behavior. The oversupply of copper is a head-fake, and the global copper supply is coming.
Mining.com reports:
Copper price: Global exchange stocks top 1 million tonnes first time in 21 years
“Copper rallied through 2025 and despite some sharp pullbacks along the way ended the year more than 40% higher than at the start. This year the price is being pulled into different directions.
In holiday thin trade, copper for March delivery fell nearly 1% in New York to $5.76 a pound or $12,700 a tonne on Monday and is now trading 12% below highs hit just at the end of January.
Copper stocks on the world’s biggest metal exchanges have exceeded 1 million tons for the first time since 2004. Tariff induced stockpiling in the US has been a feature of the market for more than a year and now soft demand in top consumer China is adding to burgeoning global inventories.
Combined copper stocks on the US Comex exchange, London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange are at 1.012 million tonnes, after the LME and ShFE recorded further inflows on Friday, Reuters reports.”
That stockpile number is a sign of hoarding, not abundance. In November 2025, the US declared copper a critical mineral and is building a $12 billion strategic reserve called “Project Vault.” It’s buying into mines directly in the Congo. And that means, the US government doesn’t think supply is fine.
Copper Development Association Inc. reports:
The U.S. has enough copper to meet surging demand from AI data centers. But securing that supply depends on a robust, all-of-the-above strategy.
“America is doubling down on artificial intelligence (AI), with ambitions of global leadership playing out in multi-billion-dollar investments like The Stargate Project. But powering the AI era is about more than just silicon chips and server farms. The AI boom is redefining the future of American infrastructure. From hyperscale cloud clusters to edge computing and generative AI, the demand for data processing power is growing exponentially, and so is the need for the materials that support it. Copper, in particular, is critical to this transformation.
As OEMs, developers, and political leaders invest in a more digitally enabled, AI-powered economy, the question is no longer whether there’s enough copper in the ground. The U.S. has it. The critical challenge is ensuring that copper is mined, refined, recycled, and traded in a way that meets escalating demand without delay or disruption.”
While Western miners won’t build new mines because permitting takes decades and financing ends up costing in the end, AI data centers, electrification, defense spending, grid expansion are scaling simultaneously.
China is the one filling the supply gap. Chinese miners invested half of the $76 billion spent on copper supply globally between 2019 and 2025. They’re locking up resources in the Congo, integrating value chains, and positioning to control the chokepoint.
The Western response has mostly been mergers and acquisitions, and lobbying the US Federal Government to push China out of places like the Congo.
For those of us in the real assets camp, this is the setup we’ve been watching for.
A metal the entire modern economy depends on, with a 10-million-tonne projected shortfall by 2040, declining ore grades, 30-year permitting timelines, and governments scrambling to stockpile before the music stops. The short-term inventory build is noise. The long-term supply picture is the signal.
Copper at $12,700 a tonne sounds expensive until you realize the world needs to spend $210 billion just to make up for future demand in several years. You can add a couple of zeros to that price chart. It’ll start to make sense.
