Originally posted by John Rubino on his substack:
There are numbers, and then there are NUMBERS that represent ominous thresholds. And over the past few decades, the US has been crossing such lines with increasing frequency. Some examples:
Debt exceeds 90% of GDP
In 2010, the US government’s debt exceeded 90% of GDP, a level that some researchers believed was the point where debt begins to impair growth.
Debt exceeds 120% of GDP
The “90% is deadly” thesis was controversial, so the government ignored it, eventually running its obligations up to the current 120% of GDP. This level of indebtedness is much more widely accepted as a problem.
Interest expense exceeds defense budget
In 2025, interest on the government’s debt exceeded its military budget, which a reasonable observer would say is problematic for a global military empire.
Interest and entitlements exceed tax revenue
In 2026, interest + entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, etc.) will exceed government tax revenue. That means everything else the US spends — on war, infrastructure, foreign aid, etc. — will have to be borrowed.
Future historians will tell us which thresholds were, in retrospect, signs of a financial death spiral. But it’s a safe bet that some of the above will be on the list.