It’s increasingly difficult to piece together the true state of the economy.
I’ve raged about the quality of economic data in this country for years. At this point things have become farcical: the official jobs data is so inaccurate that every year the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has to revise the prior year’s jobs numbers.
Bear in mind, this is after every month is already revised two times.
Yes, despite two monthly revisions for every month, the jobs numbers for the entire year still have to be revised a final time to bring things closer to reality. But by that point, no one is paying attention anymore.
To be clear, we are not talking about small revisions, either. The latest BLS revision just erased 69% of the total numbers for 2025.
No, that is not a typo. 69%.
Initially, the BLS estimated that 584,000 jobs were added in 2025, but after reconciling survey data with more accurate administrative records from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), that figure was revised down to just 181,000 jobs—a reduction of 69%.
What’s insane about all of this is that trillions of dollars in capital were allocated based on the original, completely inaccurate, jobs numbers! Throughout 2025, the stock market caught a major bid every month when the BLS released the jobs data based on the assumption that the economy and jobs market were growing rapidly.
We now know that was NOT the case. More than two thirds of those jobs weren’t even real jobs. They were gimmicks created in a government bean counter’s spreadsheet.
Which raises the question…
Has the stock market finally figured out that the economy is NOT nearly as strong as the official (completely inaccurate) jobs data claimed?
The S&P 500 has gone nowhere for three months now.
Even more concerning is the fact that Big Tech, which has led the market since the April lows 2025, is collapsing.
What does Big Tech know that the rest of the market hasn’t figured out yet?
My proprietary crash indicator knows.
This signal went off before the 1987 crash, the Tech Crash, the Great Financial Crisis and more.
We detail this trigger, how it works, and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of its recent warning (the first since the tariff tantrum), we’re making 99 copies available to the investing public.
To pick up one of the last copies…
Graham Summers, MBA
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
