The stock market bubble ended early this year, marking the biggest bubble since 2009-2015, caused by 15 years of massive multiple upside due to monetary policies like free money for 10-15 years.
The Fed will likely implement more monetary easing soon, as banks are dropping 6-10% compared to S&P’s 3-4% drop, with the major bank ETF KBE showing significant decline.
Gold and silver’s surge is linked to the banks’ collapse, with silver at an unprecedented 100:1 ratio to gold, historically unheard of.
The gold miners vs gold spread chart shows potential for GDX to break a couple-year downtrend if certain levels are reached.
In November 2008, after the October stock market collapse, the Fed’s QE and rate cuts caused gold to gain 50% from $600s to $1000 within 3-4 months.
Michael Oliver predicts the Fed will panic and implement QE even before the next meeting when banking problems become public.
The commercial real estate sector is at risk, with debt crisis ETFs like RWR and VNQ showing poor technical performance and high debt levels.
The LBMA gold outflow indicates incredible demand for physical gold, signaling panic among large acquirers.
Trump’s tariff strategy aims for 20-30% as a negotiating tactic, starting with legitimate 10% tariffs to pressure China into negotiations.
European debt issues and potential sovereign defaults drive capital to US markets (Dow, Treasuries) as a safe haven for big money.
China joining Russia against NATO is likely if Europe attacks Russia, viewing Russia as a buffer against potential US aggression due to shared communist ideologies.
The 1931 financial war in Europe, triggered by France opposing the merger of Germany and Austria, led to sovereign defaults and shaped modern economic tensions.
Macron’s desire to lead Europe and impose tariffs reflects France’s historical ambition for dominance, dating back to de Gaulle’s NATO policies.
The Roman Empire’s free trade system lasted 1000 years, creating peace by making participation economically beneficial.
Germany’s economy shrank 3-5% due to COVID response, climate policies, and Russia sanctions, significantly impacting the EU economy.
Trump’s 145% tariffs on China aim to force negotiations, while China prepares to economically isolate itself from the US.
“Fake news” in finance exaggerates market conditions, claiming a NASDAQ bear market despite not breaking the uptrend line, to create panic and political change.
Christine Lagarde, as IMF head, threatened tax havens and the Vatican with SWIFT system removal unless they disclosed all accounts.
Zelensky’s actions, including denying elections and imposing martial law, led to a death toll increase from 13,000 to 1.1 million Ukrainians.
The US is approaching a sovereign debt crisis with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120-125%, mirroring 11 countries that experienced depression or high inflation in similar situations.
Since the COVID outbreak, gold has risen 220% and Bitcoin 2,000%, outperforming US government bonds and indicating a looming sovereign debt crisis.
The Federal Reserve enables unsustainable government spending by printing money to buy bonds, acting as the “dealer” to the government’s “drug addict”.
Fiscal spending as a percentage of GDP is at unprecedented levels, with 80% of the budget allocated to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, interest, and defense.
Sound money, historically gold and silver for over 5,000 years and now including Bitcoin, is defined as money that cannot be diluted and maintains value over time.
Hard assets like gold, Bitcoin, and real estate are expected to outperform depreciating currencies over the next decade.
Self-custody of Bitcoin using a hardware wallet is preferred by hardcore enthusiasts, while Bitcoin ETFs offer an easier entry point for average investors.
Bitcoin’s network effect, explained by Metcalfe’s Law, gives it a significant advantage over potential competitors in the digital currency space.
The inflation rate has been steadily increasing since the US abandoned the gold standard in 1971, with governments historically abusing money-printing privileges.
Keynesian economic models promote inflation for debt relief and political gain, benefiting the wealthy elite while disadvantaging savers and younger generations.
Proposed sound money policies include making gold, silver, and Bitcoin legal tender, shutting down the Federal Reserve and FDIC, balancing the federal budget, and implementing term limits.
The current “everything bubble” in stocks, caused by zero interest rate policies, could lead to a potential 65% market decline to reach fair value.
Gold and silver charts are breaking out, with targets of $3,200-$3,400 for gold and $38-$40 for silver, while GDX and GDXJ may reach $50 and $65 respectively.
New Harbor recommends a 10% allocation to gold and precious metal miners, adjusting based on relative performance, for long-term financial stability and growth.
Sound money is believed to lead to a more peaceful world by preventing war financing through money printing and inflation, which would otherwise require 60% taxes if done openly.
The lack of financial literacy education, particularly in monetary history and money creation, contributes to the persistence of unsound money policies and short-term political expediency.
Artificial credit expansion by the Federal Reserve, not tariffs, is the primary cause of recessions, creating malinvestment and warping the production structure beyond sustainable levels.
The Federal Reserve, acting as a banking cartel, has been responsible for every recession in American history by transferring trillions from everyday Americans to wealthy financial institutions and government officials.
The Great Depression was caused by extensive credit expansion during the 1920s, with the 1929 crash acting as a trigger and subsequent interventionist policies exacerbating the situation.
The 2008 Great Recession resulted from credit expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s, triggered by the collapse of the subprime housing bubble.
The next recession will likely be caused by aggressive credit expansion following the 2008 recession and especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, requiring public understanding and discipline to address the root cause.
The end of the credit supercycle will lead to global chaos, causing unpredictable events like war, hyperinflation, deflation, and stagflation, surpassing previous country-specific currency crises.
Real assets such as gold, silver, energy, and farmland are likely to outperform during financial turmoil, while traditional financial assets may struggle.
Energy prices, particularly oil, play a crucial role in determining inflationary or deflationary pressures, with lower oil prices potentially causing short-term deflation during a recession.
Dollar-cost averaging in precious metals and cautious investment in mining stocks with growth potential is recommended for long-term investors.
Gold mining stocks tend to outperform during metals bull markets, attracting generalist money, despite 70% of financial accounts currently having no exposure to these assets.
Focus on well-managed big miners in gold/silver bull markets, as they offer decent dividends, stock buybacks, and generate substantial free cash flow.
Reshoring and tariffs are inflationary, as relocating factories to developed countries requires expensive raw materials, skilled labor, and higher wages.
Governments facing debilitating interest costs on debt may implement catastrophic policies, potentially leading to a currency reset or return to a gold standard.
Trump’s tariff policies, initially seen as extreme, may incentivize trading partners to agree to zero tariffs, which could be the ultimate goal despite the messy implementation.
Uranium and copper miners offer upside potential amid global electrification trends, with uranium demand rising from mothballed plants and copper facing supply challenges.
Jurisdiction risk is critical for mining investments, with Nevada remaining a AAA jurisdiction for gold/silver, while countries like Mexico pose threats of nationalization.
Building personal resilience through community ties, skill development, and owning productive assets is crucial for weathering potential financial chaos.
The largest credit bubble in history may be bursting due to Trump’s tariffs, potentially leading to a global recession or depression.
The dollar’s trade-weighted index has fallen by 2% and could drop below 100, possibly reaching 90, as foreign investors sell US equities.
Gold’s downside is extremely limited as central banks buy it to reduce exposure to paper currencies, maintaining steady purchasing power over long periods.
The Fed may be forced into interest rate policies that could destroy the dollar as foreign investors sell US equities and buy their own currencies.
A collapse in crypto is expected soon, with Bitcoin’s correlation to NASDAQ matching that of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks.
The US economy is in a debt trap due to growing debt and stagnant GDP growth, which will intensify in a global recession.
Massive outflows of gold and silver from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) are occurring, with inventories reaching historic lows.
Accelerating stands for delivery in gold and silver on the COMEX exchange since 2016, with over 2,100 tons in the last year, indicate growing demand for physical metals.
China’s 34% tariff on American goods and increased exports to BRICS nations could lead to a new trade grouping, shifting the global trade landscape.
The contraction of the gold derivative market could have systemic risks for the entire derivatives industry, affecting foreign exchange, commodities, and interest rate swaps.
Trump’s tariff strategy aims to claw back trade surpluses by targeting unfair advantages, leveraging the US’s powerful consumer market to create opportunities for building in America and globally.
China’s economic dependence on the US consumer market is likened to needing “air to breathe,” making the US the preferred market for Chinese products and a key factor in the global economy.
Tariffs incentivize US manufacturing, exemplified by Ford announcing plans to reshore car production within 24 hours of tariff implementation, as part of Trump’s broader economic strategy.
The US has three separate systems for money creation, tax collection, and budgeting, lacking checks and balances and allowing for unlimited money printing.
Davos elites manipulate the yield curve and sell recession narratives for self-benefit, while Trump and Powell work to maintain a healthy economy and challenge these strategies.
Regulatory burdens significantly hinder US manufacturing, with examples like California oil exploration and Florida road maintenance facing lengthy assessments and delays.
Bitcoin mining is positioned as a solution to tokenize waste energy, potentially playing a role in economic restructuring and market corrections.
Bitcoin’s architecture incentivizes efficiency in energy use by turning productive work into tradeable tokens, creating value through human decisions on resource allocation.
The EU plans to mobilize excess savings and introduce a digital euro in October, combined with military rearmament, suggesting a potential economic crash and wealth confiscation.
The EU may threaten a financial nuclear option, canceling currencies and debts, and bailing in savers, potentially causing a globally cataclysmic cascading liquidation in the US stock market.
Trump’s media strategy effectively targets the managerial class, aiming to overthrow them, with overcommunication and key figures like Stephen Miller explaining policies.
Trump’s multi-vector attacks on Europe, including NATO costs and trade cheating, have resonated with Republicans and independents, winning the messaging war.
A global economic reordering is imminent, with China needing to be involved, as signaled by Powell mentioning gold and bitcoin as stores of value.
Reshoring manufacturing like toaster production in the US is crucial for training factory workers who can then move up to more complex jobs at companies like SpaceX or Tesla.
Murray Rothbard argued 40 years ago that open borders are incompatible with a welfare and warfare state, a sentiment echoed by libertarians today.
Complex systems like TCP/IP are good at adapting to problems but can become fragile if repeatedly attacked, leading to breakdowns in complexity, as seen in the attrition in basic industries since COVID.
70% of America is already in recession despite official statistics, with Marc Faber warning of looming deflationary wealth destruction in 2025.
The market is currently oversold but overvalued, with Faber predicting a potential 50% NASDAQ drop and a wealth effect-driven depression if the Fed doesn’t intervene.
Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are deemed must-own assets to hedge against inflation and systemic risks due to their stability and limited supply.
Faber’s recommended portfolio allocation: 25% equities, 25% precious metals and miners, 25% fixed income securities and cash, and 25% real estate.
The Fed is described as a “fraudulent organization” that prints money benefiting the wealthy, while ordinary people struggle with inflation and decreasing purchasing power.
Faber anticipates the Fed will print money to finance the $10 trillion debt wall and address global liquidity draining, potentially using the tariff situation as cover.
Central banks have been increasing their physical gold holdings in recent years, driven by concerns over “idiotic economic policies” like asset seizures from other nations.
President Trump’s America First agenda and potential military escalation with Iran create a complex global economic landscape, potentially impacting commodity prices like oil and copper.
Leading indicators like the 10-year minus 3-month yield spread signaled recession in late 2024, but it takes 2-3 quarters for coincident indicators like labor and production to follow suit.
The Singapore trade index, a global trade barometer, rose from December 2024 despite US tariffs, suggesting global trade isn’t yet declining significantly.
A housing market bubble almost twice the size of 2007 is expected to drive a major recession, causing problems in banks and a credit crunch.
Bitcoin is projected to reach $130,000 and altcoins to make new all-time highs, driven by Fed liquidity injections.
Equities (S&P 500) are forecast to reach 6,500-6,700 in the next rally, despite current fears and tariff impacts.
Oil prices are expected to decline from 2008 highs to 2022 levels in a deflationary bust before a recession hits.
Gold is predicted to outperform risk assets like the S&P 500, with a declining gold-to-S&P ratio suggesting a multi-year gold bull market.
The Fed’s dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting the economy may lead to liquidity injections if the labor market weakens.
RSI on Bitcoin is expected to reach the 80s-90s on a monthly chart, indicating a strong upside rally driven by liquidity rather than inflation.
Tariffs are a short-term shock to the economy, but the real drivers of a recession will be a housing market rollover and a financial crisis.
Vietnam tariffs could hurt Americans more due to large imports from Vietnam, potentially causing a larger recession.
Dollar weakness (DXY declining to 96-97) can support risk assets like equities and crypto, but is counterintuitive to a recession narrative.
Bonds are expected to rally until a stagflationary environment emerges in about a year, triggered by the Fed’s 2008-like stimulus during a recession.
Leaders should use AI as a thought partner, not a replacement, by applying the CRIT framework (Context, Role, Interview, Task) to leverage AI’s capabilities while maintaining human judgment.
Focus on the 20% of AI use cases that drive 80% of results to develop competence and understand AI’s capabilities and limitations in achieving business objectives.
AI can act as a virtual board advisor by simulating experts like Steve Jobs or Warren Buffett, generating alternative strategies, ranking them, and providing critiques to refine thinking.
LLMs can enhance strategic planning by acting as an aggressive growth-minded board member, stress-testing plans and providing actionable recommendations to meet ambitious targets.
AI can accelerate content creation by generating first drafts in seconds, allowing for rapid iteration and polishing, significantly reducing time to produce high-quality material.
Use AI to facilitate idea generation by brainstorming alternative business models, expanding perspectives with non-obvious strategies, and compressing options into a curated list of top solutions.
AI is projected to increase productivity by 1000% by taking over 80% of tactical low-level tasks, allowing humans to focus on their unique strengths.
AI can revolutionize healthcare by harnessing wearable data to predict health issues like heart attacks and provide preventative recommendations, enabling proactive patient care.
AI enables personalized education by understanding individual needs and guiding next steps in the most effective modality, disrupting the traditional one-size-fits-all approach.
AI is a statistical engine predicting the next word in a sequence, capable of generating meaningful data but with limitations in up-to-date information, math skills, and complex social situations.
To avoid mediocrity in AI-generated content, be the thought leader and use AI to augment thinking by asking it to interview you and provide non-obvious insights.
Apply human judgment to AI outputs, ask for sources, and verify information to challenge biases and assumptions while enhancing strategic thinking.
AI-driven leaders are lifelong learners who use AI in key areas to experience the technology, leading to lightbulb moments and accelerated progress.
AI’s impact on the future is unpredictable, with potential for AI entrepreneurs and independent AI authors emerging, particularly at the intersection of AI and Bitcoin.
Sustainable competitive advantage in the AI era comes from unique internal capabilities that AI can enhance, not undermine, according to a Harvard study.
Focus on self-awareness to identify unique strengths that bring the most value, and use AI to enhance these strengths without undermining them.
AI can help process emotions and identify next steps by engaging as a thought partner, enhancing emotional intelligence and interpersonal skills.
To 10x your growth and income, identify tasks taking up 80% of your time and leverage AI to automate or elevate them, focusing on the 20% driving the most results.
AI can make government more efficient by streamlining processes and reducing bureaucracy, but adoption is currently slow due to attachment to traditional methods.
The intersection of AI and Bitcoin may provide ideal low-cost, fast settlement rails for AI agents requiring financial transactions to operate efficiently.
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