The gold price has quietly surged to a historic high of $3,300 per ounce, receiving minimal attention from mainstream financial media despite significant market movements.
BRICS+ nations are collaborating to create an alternative financial system, including the Belt and Road Initiative and digital RMB, to reduce US dollar dominance in global trade.
The People’s Bank of China has fully connected its digital RMB cross-border settlement system to 10 ASEAN countries, marking a significant step towards a new global monetary system.
The gold-to-silver ratio remains extreme at 100:1 or higher, historically indicating a strong opportunity to trade gold for silver as demand increases, particularly from India and China.
Silver is positioned as the most undervalued asset class with high upside potential, crucial for modern technologies like electronics and solar panels.
The US debt market is highly fragile, with $28 trillion in treasuries due by 2028 and only $15 trillion in tax revenue, making it susceptible to sudden, violent moves in the bond market.
The US dollar risks collapse due to the country’s massive debt burden, which could be intentionally devalued to reduce financial obligations, significantly impacting global markets.
Big money players like central banks, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds are driving the gold market, accumulating and repatriating gold for potential reintroduction into the monetary system.
The basis trade opportunity in the bond market, where hedge funds buy treasuries and short futures, is a risk-free trade that can quickly destabilize with small rate increases.
The Fed’s decision to bail out hedge funds and large financial institutions could lead to potential systemic collapse due to high leverage and large market positions.
The 1929-1932 market crash is considered a minimum expectation for future market declines, with potential for the Dow to lose 89% of its value and 9,000 banks going bust.
Current economic risks are amplified due to increased US involvement in international trade, complex supply chains, and greater credit risk.
The credit bubble, valued at $14.5 trillion in foreign investment holdings in US equities, poses a significant threat of massive selling as equity markets decline.
The gold price rally is driven by central banks accumulating gold, sovereign wealth funds buying gold, and Chinese housewives moving savings into gold accounts.
The gold to silver ratio is at a historic 100:1, with silver not being priced as money while gold is viewed as a safe haven from credit risk.
The gold leasing system, which provided liquidity in London and Basel markets, is ending due to central bank accumulation, potentially leading to a systemic crisis.
The bullion bank community is split, with larger institutions feeling secure due to bullion and liquidity, while smaller traders face difficulties from bullion shortages and rehypothecation.
Credit deflation is causing stock prices to decline regardless of company fundamentals, with banks forced to sell collateral as markets slide.
Tariffs, when combined with a credit bubble, are deflationary and economically destructive, potentially delivering a “death blow” to America rather than China.
Despite reaching all-time highs of $3,300, the gold price receives little attention in mainstream media, with buyers primarily in Asian markets and central banks.
Felix Zulauf predicts a 15-20% stock correction in early 2025, followed by a 2-year rally to S&P 500 reaching 7500 by 2027, based on global liquidity contraction and central bank interventions.
Investors should start 2025 defensively, reducing equity exposure, avoiding long-duration bonds, and focusing on T-bills and gold as a winning combination.
A global recession is expected in the second half of 2025, with a market retest, followed by a rally potentially peaking in 2027.
The US dollar is projected to decline over the next few years, potentially dipping to 97-98, due to foreign capital repatriation and shattered confidence caused by aggressive trade policies.
Chinese economic stimulus is expected to increase from minor to major levels in 2025, triggering a significant market rally.
Zulauf recommends focusing on industrial companies with protected positions in the US market and expects foreign markets to outperform the US.
A major bottom in oil prices is anticipated in 2025, with oil potentially reaching $150-$200 by 2027, driven by global economic recovery and increased energy demand.
The US dollar’s role as reserve currency may be damaged due to its misuse as a political weapon and geopolitical changes leading to trade settlements in different currencies.
Hyperinflation impoverishes society, destroys capital stock, and alters human personality towards antisocial traits, similar to effects incubated in prisons.
Historical hyperinflations in major economies like France, Germany, and the Roman Empire were directly linked to excessive government spending and debt.
The three phases of inflation progress from increased money supply beyond gold reserves, to higher prices as public demand for money decreases, culminating in skyrocketing prices and alternative payment methods.
According to Mises, inflation is a deliberate policy that can be halted by stopping the printing of money, not an inevitable economic phenomenon.
Germans who experienced the 1920s hyperinflation were more susceptible to following Hitler and supporting Nazism, demonstrating inflation’s profound societal impact.
Central banks are steadily buying gold without being price sensitive, driving prices from $2,000 to $3,000 in just 1.5 years to meet government-mandated storage targets for a potential currency reset.
Gold is considered an asymmetric bet by Jim Rickards, with limited downside risk due to central bank buying and potentially unlimited upside if the dollar collapses in a currency crisis.
Gold producers are experiencing record-high margins, with average costs around $1,500-$1,600 per ounce, resulting in $1,600-$1,700 margins even at the highest costs.
Royalty companies like Franco Nevada are achieving $2,500-$2,600 per ounce in gross margins, leading to massive cash flow and increased M&A activity in the sector.
The GDXJ, tracking mid-tier gold producers, is trading below its post-pandemic crash levels despite current triple-digit gains in junior explorers like Snowline Gold and Hannan Metal.
Silver mining stocks are considered a better buy than gold due to silver’s industrial demand and deficit market, with the gold:silver ratio above 80 indicating potential for silver to outperform.
Investors can use volatility spreads and long-dated put options to navigate market volatility and bet on increased market fluctuations in gold producers and royalty companies.
High-quality mining stocks with established properties and strong fundamentals are likely to outperform in a bull market and provide psychological comfort during market downturns.
Trump’s tariffs primarily target the EU, not China, revealing a strategy to uncover trade weaknesses and identify US allies and enemies in the global economic landscape.
China manages its currency relative to a basket of Asian currencies, not the US dollar, with a high correlation for 15 years, indicating a shift away from dollar dependence.
EU central banks controlled nearly $3.3T in US treasuries as of January 2023, up from $1.1T in 2019, demonstrating their significant role in the Eurodollar system.
The war in Ukraine serves as an excuse for the EU to devalue their currency, default on debt, and disrupt tariffs, while France and Germany consolidate power in Europe.
Southern European countries like Italy are breaking away from the EU, with Italy’s Giorgia Meloni negotiating a bilateral trade agreement with the US outside of EU structures.
The digital euro could be either a tool of tyranny by EU elites or a last-ditch effort to maintain control, highlighting the complex power dynamics within the EU.
Trump’s geopolitical strategy includes relocating US assets from Germany and Poland to Greece, supporting Erdogan’s Syria policy, and initiating indirect talks with Iran.
Trump’s approach targets tariffs, currency manipulation, capital controls, and regulations to address comprehensive trade issues, not just tariff-related problems.
Basis trades by hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium faced challenges, reminiscent of the 2019 SOFR crisis and 2020 repo crisis, raising questions about their funding sources.
Europeans dumped US treasuries while buying euros and German bunds, maintaining a 2.62% yield on bunds, indicating a coordinated effort to shift away from dollar dominance.
The potential election of Mark Carney as Canadian Prime Minister could lead to a trade war with the US over access to Canadian mineral and oil wealth, potentially making Carney a major pipeline builder.
The old monetary system is collapsing, with gold, silver, and Bitcoin emerging as lifeboats for investors seeking sound money alternatives to fiat currency.
A sovereign debt doom loop is creating a negative feedback cycle where rising interest rates increase the debt burden, leading to larger deficits and more bond sales, further exacerbating the problem.
Gold’s 55% increase in the last year signals a loss of confidence in sovereign currencies and governments’ ability to balance budgets without debasing the currency.
The Fed’s primary tool is the money printer, which they will likely use to service the growing debt, leading to a “Big Print” in the next 6-12 months.
The Fed is creating creative ways to print money without calling it that, such as bailing out Silicon Valley Bank using the systematic risk exception instead of following Dodd-Frank rules.
The Fed’s softening stance on QT, reducing it from $25B/month to $5B, and potentially using MBS proceeds to buy Treasuries, acts as a backdoor form of QE to keep money in the system.
The dollar’s global dominance is waning as competing currencies emerge, like yuan for oil, leading to a multipolar world with a potential neutral reserve currency.
As fiat currencies fail, people will convert dollar savings into sound money like gold and Bitcoin to avoid melting value, a mass version of Gresham’s law.
Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins enforced by a digital algorithm, is a scarce digital form of gold that is easier to transfer and verify.
Bitcoin’s ETF approval in January 2024 and Trump’s embrace, including a proposed strategic Bitcoin reserve, signal growing recognition of digital assets’ importance.
China has made a bet on gold, claiming reserves of 3,000 tons but likely holding much more based on shipments and local mining.
The U.S. could potentially leapfrog China by adopting a Bitcoin standard, which is not as outrageous as it sounds given the current economic landscape.
The US black budget, initiated in 1919, grew through seized WWII funds, agency fund clawing, and private contracts funded by Treasury bonds, linking classified projects to global borrowing and stock markets.
In 2018, the implementation of FASAB 56 allowed a secret group to move government finances off the books for 150+ entities, rendering bond and stock disclosures meaningless.
A breakaway civilization, funded by the black budget, operates through 170+ underground bases in the US and oceans, enabling secret activities including potential space projects.
On September 10, 2001, DOD Secretary Donald Rumsfeld announced $2.3 trillion missing, but the next day, buildings holding financial records were destroyed in the 9/11 attacks.
A 2017 study by Dr. Skidmore found $21 trillion missing from the DOD and HUD, increasing the previous estimate of $12 trillion by $9 trillion.
The US is losing its technological leadership, leading in only 7 of 64 key technologies, while China leads in 54, due to misallocation of capital.
US healthcare spending is nearly double that of the next industrialized country at $135,000 per person, yet 70% of children have chronic illnesses due to being poisoned.
Culture integration of divine/demonic in daily life is crucial for running a global dollar system and being a critical power in a multi-polar world.
Chinese culture’s long-term focus on community over self, exemplified by centuries-long plans like the Wandering Earth project, contrasts with Americans’ inability to maintain long-term projects.
Stablecoins, controlled by big banks and the New York Fed, aim to maintain dollar dominance globally through partnerships with tech giants and payment systems.
Precious metals, especially gold, are recommended for a core and investment position due to their potential in various political and economic scenarios.
The current US administration is rapidly implementing a control grid, a digital concentration camp, at high speed and scale, shocking both Democrats and Republicans.
The US dollar has lost nearly 4% of its value in just 2 weeks, with the dollar index dropping to 99.8, following Trump’s worldwide tariffs implementation.
Foreigners owning $26 trillion more of US assets than Americans own of foreign assets is overwhelming safe-haven moves, as mass selling of dollar-denominated assets occurs.
Trump’s potential unwinding of the globalized export machine could permanently slash trillions in dollar demand overseas, as foreigners dump dollars and hesitate to accumulate more.
Foreigners own roughly $12 trillion in American bonds (2/3 in US treasuries), and their dumping could drive bond prices down, increasing businesses’ cost of capital.
A crash in bonds could trigger a bank crisis, as most American bank assets are in bonds, particularly treasuries, potentially leading to insolvency if bond values fall below deposit liabilities.
Supply deficit in the silver market is deepening due to declining LBMA inventories (down to 22,000 metric tons) and increased demand, with 16,000 metric tons tied up in ETFs.
Silver mining output has peaked and been falling for nearly 10 years, with S&P Global Intelligence forecasting continued drops in primary silver mining output until 2027.
Structural deficits of 200 million ounces/year since 2021 have led to above-ground inventories being drawn down, impacting silver price dynamics.
Industrial demand for silver is growing rapidly due to increased use in solar panels and electric vehicles, with Topcon technology requiring 50% more silver per panel than previous Perk technology.
Pure play silver stocks are up 37% for the year, indicating a bullish trend in the sector and strong investor interest.
Silver ETFs have seen 320 million ounces withdrawn in 2024, while Comex inventories have been soaring since the end of 2024.
Algorithmic buying by institutions has kept the silver price relatively flat since 2017, despite ETF outflows and exchange drawdowns.
The currency crisis, currency wars, and trade wars have influenced silver prices, leading to increased gold demand and subsequent silver price fluctuations.
March deliveries of silver were the second-highest in the last 20 years, indicating strong physical demand.
The China-US trade war and tariff scare led to a repatriation of silver to the US, impacting market dynamics before tariffs were exempted for gold and silver.
Current trends suggest the silver market will hit a brick wall in 12-18 months as supply struggles to keep up with soaring demand.
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