The $39 trillion in US financial assets held by foreigners could disappear if they lose faith in the dollar, potentially triggering a massive economic crisis.
The credit bubble’s burst, evidenced by declining equity indices and ephemeral assets like Bitcoin, may lead to higher interest rates and worsening US government finances.
Zombie corporations unable to afford higher interest costs could contribute to a systemic collapse as interest rates rise to sustain the debt-fueled credit bubble.
BRICS nations are collaboratively building loyalty, confidence, and infrastructure, contrasting with the US’s punitive approach to international relations.
Trump’s policies, including tariffs and Fed policies, have destabilized markets and undermined confidence in the dollar, making it difficult for the US to attract foreign investment.
Russia and China may exploit the US dollar’s weakness as a vulnerability, potentially challenging US economic dominance.
Pension funds may need to rapidly adjust to a bear market in equities, shifting from 60% equities to 80% short-duration bonds to match long-term liabilities.
Banks in the EU and Japan, being highly leveraged, face potential exposure of bad debts and over-leverage as rising interest rates undermine commercial banking obligations.
The dollar’s decline is reflected in gold’s record highs, as foreign entities, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds, divest from US currency.
The US is caught in a debt trap, with a disintegrating tax base and recessionary economy, making it challenging to service debt and attract foreign lenders.
The US government plans to digitize all federal assets to create a massive collateral base for a Ponzi scheme, serving as a ruse to get the global financial system to agree on a new system.
A new cashless and digital system, possibly issued by money center banks like JP Morgan or Amazon rather than central banks, is being planned as part of the economic reset.
The gold price has surged to $3500, with banks and smart money buying gold as a last resort due to the dollar’s credibility crisis.
Silver is the Achilles heel of the financial system, with its industrial use increasing from 35% to 70% over 25 years, creating a deficit that will lead to a violent repricing.
The asset allocation model has shifted from stocks to commodities, with investors advised to consider moving from 90% stocks and bonds to 20% metals.
The gold-silver ratio has risen to 100:1, indicating that silver is undervalued compared to gold and offering a potential opportunity for investors.
Smart money, including Warren Buffett, has moved a significant amount of cash to the sidelines, equivalent to 2 years of the silver market.
The dollar’s weakness and concerns are gathering into a huge storm ahead, with bankers discussing central bank digital currencies and the great reset as potential solutions.
Public pensions, with $6 trillion in assets, are unregulated at the federal level, allowing Wall Street to sell unsuitable investments with exorbitant fees (2%+20% of gains) that would never pass in corporate pensions regulated by ERISA.
Public pension boards, consisting of firefighters, policemen, and politicians with no investment experience, are making decisions on $6.5 trillion of state workers’ money, leading to mismanagement and excessive fees that can cause funds to have half as much as they should after 30 years of compounding.
Public pensions are allocating 35-40% of assets to illiquid, opaque, and high-risk alternative investments like private equity, hedge funds, and crypto, with fees often exceeding 10% annually when investigated.
Lockup periods in alternative investments can last up to 50 years, preventing pensions from accessing funds during a crisis, while understated allocations and misleading valuations allow pensions to appear healthier than they are.
Pension funds delay reckoning by inflating asset values 25-50% above current valuations, cutting benefits, and increasing contributions, even though politicians running state and local funds will be gone within 4-8 years.
Wall Street exploits public pensions as unsophisticated investors, selling unsuitable investments with high fees, while politicians use pension funds for political gain, jeopardizing the financial security of millions of retirees.
Alternative investment consultants advising pensions have conflicts of interest, delaying truth; fund managers with discretion in valuing assets always want to value them higher, creating firewalls that delay the day of reckoning.
401k plans have failed to provide retirement security, with average 65-year-old balance scarily small and median virtually nothing; gig workers often lack any retirement plan, creating an environment for angry people.
The PBGC is essentially bankrupt, with underfunding at $4 trillion according to the Federal Reserve; bailouts are likely, but could come from Wall Street if there was a desire to recover looted funds.
Forensic investigations of public pensions, crowdfunded by participants, can expose mismanagement and protect beneficiaries, as Ted Siedle has offered since 2012.
Transparency in public pension investments is crucial, as fees are the only controllable aspect of an investment, and indexing the $6.5 trillion in public pension assets would improve performance and save trillions.
Federal regulations require pensions in the red zone (less than 80% funded) to adopt a rehabilitation plan, but state-level regulations are not comprehensive or uniform.
Alternative investments like private equity and debt, which make up 40% of public pension assets, are illiquid, opaque, and high-fee, requiring more staff to monitor, leading to the highest compensated state investment staff.
The Fed’s independence is a myth, serving as a shield for unelected bureaucrats to insulate themselves from accountability to the democratically elected government.
The Fed Chair is appointed every 4 years and can only be removed for malfeasance or neglect, limiting direct government control.
Lack of transparency is a major issue, exemplified by Bernanke’s refusal to disclose recipients of hundreds of billions in new money during the 2008 financial crisis.
The Fed’s most potent weapon against inflation is to ratchet up or maintain higher interest rates, slowing economic demand by reducing the money supply growth rate.
The Fed doesn’t directly lower interest rates; it increases the money supply to drive rates down by boosting bank reserves.
High interest rates indicate loose money, while low interest rates suggest tight money, contrary to popular belief.
The Fed serves as a tool for the government to finance spending without raising taxes or directly printing money, as seen in World War I and II financing.
The Fed’s bond purchases and money creation are not independent of Treasury spending, but rather facilitate it indirectly.
Austrian economists argue that interest rates should be freed and determined by voluntary saving preferences of consumers, not manipulated by the Fed.
The Fed’s approach is criticized as “scientism” or “pretend science” that dictates when and how to increase the money supply.
The Fed’s independence is viewed as a facade that protects elites from accountability rather than promoting sound economic policy.
A massive currency crisis looms due to excessive government borrowing, potentially leading to a death spiral where governments must inflate currencies to manage debt, historically benefiting gold and silver.
The stock market is wildly overvalued, with high prices despite incredible volatility and weakening consumer spending, signaling a likely recession and equities bear market in the coming year.
Central banks are accumulating gold without price sensitivity to back their currencies during the next crisis, allowing gold to outperform all other assets.
Gold mining stocks are responding to rising gold prices, with many large miners and ETFs up 50% or more in the last year, potentially entering a bull market as profit margins widen.
Royalty companies like Franco Nevada, with diversified portfolios of hundreds of deals worldwide, offer safer investments than mining companies due to lower risk and higher profit margins of $2,500 per ounce of gold sold.
Silver’s price is expected to outperform gold by 2-3 times, as the gold-to-silver ratio reaches a historically strong buy signal of 100 ounces of silver per ounce of gold.
The Fed’s interest rate cuts since September have led to increasing long-term rates, indicating bond markets’ distrust in central banks’ ability to maintain currency stability.
Trump administration’s tariffs and efforts to repatriate industries could lead to higher wages and increased demand for workers in higher-value added industries like mining and manufacturing.
Jurisdiction risk is becoming a major concern for mining investments, with Nevada and Alaska emerging as the only safe jurisdictions amid uncertainty in countries like Mexico, Canada, and Ghana.
Physical gold and silver stored safely offer a more stable investment than mining shares, providing most of the value without the geopolitical and exploration risks associated with mining.
Mexico’s uncertain environment and potential nationalization of mining assets make it a high-risk jurisdiction for investment, despite some companies like Abino Silver and Gold performing well.
Gold and silver are constitutionally recognized as money, leading to a states’ rights vs federal battle over sound money implementation.
Legal tender bills in states like Florida, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Louisiana are making gold and silver legal currency again.
Sound money like gold and silver cannot be “printed to oblivion”, unlike fiat currency, making them crucial for financial security and independence.
Allowing gold and silver to circulate as money in an economy can potentially remove inflation and act as a “game-changer” for financial stability.
Dollar cost averaging is recommended for accumulating sound money assets like gold and silver.
Using gold and silver as legal tender removes barriers like capital gains sales tax, enhancing their utility as financial assets.
The US dollar index has significantly declined from 110 to 98 since January, indicating potential shifts in global currency dynamics.
Gold prices are poised to rise due to debt imbalances, de-globalization, and accumulation by countries like China, Russia, and Turkey to stabilize their monetary systems.
Higher gold prices could increase U.S. Treasury cash reserves by $800-900 billion, enabling Treasury buybacks to manipulate interest rates lower without Fed cooperation.
The U.S. dollar is in a structural downtrend due to high debt levels and interest burdens, potentially leading to a “Mara Lago accord” to manage currency relationships.
The gold-to-silver ratio at 100 suggests silver is undervalued, with potential for prices to double or triple while remaining plausible.
Mining stocks are historically undervalued relative to U.S. equities, offering attractive free cash flow yields and margins despite gold prices at record levels.
The gold-to-oil ratio is at the second highest level in history, indicating expanded margins for gold miners with all-in sustaining costs around $1500 or lower.
2-year Treasury yields at ~4% are considered extremely overvalued and could be cut in half within 12 months due to increased recession probability.
A rebalancing out of U.S. assets into emerging markets, particularly South America, is predicted as the dollar weakens and yields are capped.
The energy sector, especially oil, is poised for potential outperformance with possible return to triple-digit prices in the next year or two.
Exploration-stage mining investments, while riskier, offer significant upside potential and have historically generated the majority of wealth for industry billionaires.
Owning cheap assets and building value, rather than timing market fluctuations, is key to long-term wealth, as demonstrated by successful investors like Warren Buffett.
Famed cryptographer Xiaoang Wang and wife Nan Lee Ma vanished from Indiana University after FBI raids, sparking speculation about espionage or Chinese law involvement.
Royal Mail Group suffered a 144GB data breach exposing 293 folders with 16,000 files, including customer names, addresses, and video recordings of meetings.
OpenSNP, a platform for sharing genetic data, shut down amid privacy fears and political shifts, highlighting concerns about data security and informed consent in genetic research.
Samsung Germany experienced a 270,000 record breach due to a years-old credential leak, demonstrating risks of outdated security practices.
UPS and Apple’s ticketing systems are vulnerable to tailgating and ticket theft, potentially leading to stolen devices and identity theft.
23andMe DNA data, listed as an asset in bankruptcy filings, is considered highly valuable for future use in targeted attacks, account takeovers, and physical attacks.
Ghana-based hackers have been actively stealing valuable data from various companies, emphasizing the need for robust security measures and identity verification.
Google’s client-side encryption for Gmail, while convenient, may not be fully trustworthy due to potential compliance with government requests and antitrust investigations.
The Western world’s centuries-long dominance is ending as China, India, and other non-Western powers rise, despite the West comprising only 11-12% of global population.
China’s ascent is part of a natural rebalancing after centuries of Western colonization, not a threat to the US, as different regions find their footing post-Western rule.
China’s 1000-year technological leadership (500-1500 AD) ended with its 1430s isolation, allowing Europe to fill the gap until China’s recent resurgence.
China’s rapid rise since 1981 stems from hard work, foresight, planning, and round-the-clock labor, with high saving rates funding education.
The Belt and Road Initiative is a misunderstood force for global development, according to economist Jeffrey Sachs.
The technology war, not tariffs, is the real US-China competition, driven by innovation, smart youth, and national strategies like China’s 2017 AI plan.
China’s security concerns arise from dependence on sea lanes for food and energy, particularly in the Indian Ocean, South China Sea, and East China Sea.
The security dilemma emerges when defensive actions like China’s naval buildup are perceived as offensive, potentially leading to war.
US arms sales to Taiwan risk unintended encouragement of separatists, potentially triggering a China-Taiwan war with global consequences.
The US dollar’s role as primary reserve currency is diminishing due to multicurrency trends and dollar weaponization, with potential shifts in just 10 years.
ASEAN should pursue an integrated strategy on digital, rail, ports, hydrogen economy, and power transmission as a fast-growing, 800 million-strong region.
Proximity matters in international relations, with trade between countries inversely related to distance, a key empirical point for decades.
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