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Top Ten Videos – August 26, 2024

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Peter Krauth: 300% Gains In Silver During Past Rate Cutting Cycles (Aug 20, 2024)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 

Silver is poised for significant gains, potentially exceeding 300%, over the next 6-12 months due to a combination of factors including rate cutting cycles, strong Chinese demand, and dwindling stockpiles.

 

  • Silver has actually averaged over a 300% gain in the rate cutting cycle.
  • Silver tends to rise later than gold in rate cutting cycles, starting to rise about halfway through the cycle.
  • Rate cutting cycles, which are likely to coincide with a recession, could be “rocket fuel” for silver, leading to significant gains over the next 6-12 months.
  • Silver took off from $12 to $30 in a matter of about five months during the 2020 rate cutting cycle.
  • Chinese demand for silver is “almost literally off the charts” with a record high in silver imports over the past 15-20 years.
  • The stockpiles of silver have been drawn down by about 60-70% since early to mid 2021, leaving only 6-18 months of overhang that can change overnight.
  • A potential silver squeeze could be sparked when a contract holder demands physical silver delivery, but the exchange is unable to provide it, leading to a dramatic price increase.
  • Silver has a lot of catching up to do and the leverage on the upside is likely to be even higher than gold.

Martin Armstrong: We are On the Brink of Civil War and the Collapse of Nations Worldwide (August 21, 2024)

Commodity Culture...

Summary

 
 

The world is on the brink of a major international war, civil unrest, and economic collapse, triggered by the US government’s use of the dollar as a geopolitical weapon and its erosion of free speech and the rule of law.

 

Geopolitical Tensions and Conflicts

 
  • We are on the brink of civil war and the collapse of nations worldwide.
  • Once Russia was removed from the Swift system, other countries realized they could be next if they don’t comply with the White House’s demands.
  • The Biden Administration has turned the dollar into a geopolitical weapon.
  • This is why they want war, because with war, you get to then default on your debts.
  • Our computer is projecting that we are headed into a major International war and civil unrest, and eventually Civil Wars, as people will eventually rise up against the erosion of free speech and oppressive laws.
  • The United States will probably break up at least into three sections: the West Coast, the Bible Belt with the South, and the New England area.
  • The upcoming election is probably the Watershed event, as the computers show that no matter who wins, nobody is going to accept it.
     

Government Overreach and Loss of Freedoms

 
  • Governments believe that by going to a digital currency, they will be able to monitor and tax even small transactions, such as paying a babysitter, in order to increase revenue.
  • “If I was President I would withdraw from the UN and kick him the hell out of New York as well.”
  • “No country has survived after tearing apart the rule of law.”
  • “You cannot do this stuff to anybody” – the US legal system is exposed to being corrupt if charges can be brought against a president for anything they do while in office.
  • The United Nations treaty is the most outrageous thing I’ve ever read, allowing them to charge you with anything on a computer, calling it a “cyber crime”.
  • “It is certainly scary and let’s hope that that doesn’t extend to eventually interviews like this where they drag us both to the UK and throw his in prison for daring to to go against the regime.”
     

Economic Instability and Collapse

 
  • The amount of debt really is irrelevant, it’s that you can’t sell the new debt to pay off the old that matters.
  • When the Swiss peg to the euro broke, people lost 20% on their mortgages because they had borrowed in Swiss francs to save on interest, and the same scenario is repeating itself in China with dollar-denominated loans.
  • September looks to be an absolute chaotic period uh on our computer.

Robert Murphy: The Classical Economists’ Theory of Value Was More Sophisticated than You Think (August 23, 2024)

Human Action Podcast...

Summary

 
 

Classical economists, contrary to common misconceptions, had a nuanced theory of value that incorporated factors such as utility, scarcity, and subjective elements, rather than solely relying on the labor theory of value.

 

Understanding Market Prices and Value Formation

  • Economists’ chief task is to come up with a systematic explanation or framework to explain market exchange value and prices.
  • One unit of air on the margin is not useful to humans, highlighting the importance of marginal analysis in understanding the value of goods and services.
  • The essential insight is that the value of a particular volume of air is not valuable on the margin, whereas the gold that’s sitting in somebody’s vault or being worn as jewelry is valuable and its loss would be felt.
  • To understand the equilibrium exchange ratios of goods and services, you need to start with the assumption that everybody in the community has a subjective ranking of particular units of each type of good and service.
  • How can it be that someone can spend $100 on inputs today, expecting to sell the output for $105 a year from now, without prices of inputs being bid up to eliminate the profit margin?
  • Böhm-Bowerk’s explanation for why the margin doesn’t get whittled away is that present goods are more valuable than future goods on the margin.
  • The general explanation of market prices cannot take the prices of all inputs as a given, as those costs are themselves prices, and a more fundamental explanation is needed to understand how market prices are formed.
  • It’s the marginal utility that directly explains market value, not just utility.
     

Classical Economists’ Value Theory Insights

 
  • The classical economists’ theory of value was based on either labor or cost of value, but had problems that led to the marginal Revolution and the modern subjectivist marginal approach to utility theory.
  • Adam Smith understood why diamonds had a higher market value than water, contrary to the common claim that he didn’t.
  • Water and air are abundantly useful, indeed indispensable to existence, yet under ordinary circumstances, nothing can be obtained in exchange for them.
  • Air and water, indispensable to life, have a zero price in most cases, despite their high use value.
  • The classical economists made a distinction between use value and exchange value, and when talking about market value, they were ultimately explaining the exchange ratios of goods, not trying to measure subjective value.
  • The classical economists’ theory of value was more sophisticated than expected, as they didn’t just stop at explaining finished prices, but also went up the chain to explain the value of factors of production.
  • The classical economists knew that the marginal utility of a good couldn’t be the full story to explain market prices, as it wouldn’t explain why a horse trades for a certain number of bushels of wheat.
  • The modern subjectivist marginal approach to value theory is superior to the classical approach, just like Einstein’s theory of relativity is superior to Newtonian mechanics.
  • Modern value theory provides a more robust framework to explain any market price, without the need for a separate set of principles for different types of goods or services.
 

Andy Schectman: This Is MUST WATCH For Gold & Silver Buyers (August 21, 2024)

CapitalCOSM...

Summary

 

Inflation is not caused by rising prices, but rather by the government’s creation of more money, which distorts the economy and leads to price increases, and that the true extent of inflation is being hidden by flawed statistics.

 

Causes and Consequences of Inflation

 
  • “We haven’t even begun to see what inflation looks like.”
  • Rising prices are the symptom of inflation, not the cause, and the statistics that supposedly gauge the health of the dollar are seriously flawed.
  • The real culprit of inflation is the government who creates more and more money, inflating the money supply, and letting the real cause off the hook.
  • “But when governments and central banks create money out of thin air to sustain their borrowing and spending that is inflation period.”
  • “The farmers killed over a million baby chickens” due to price controls under Nixon, as the cost of feeding them exceeded the allowed selling price.
  • “It’s the greedy governments that cause inflation.”
  • “It will end like every other price capping endeavor ever has, poorly.”
     

Manipulation of Precious Metals Markets

 
  • Eight banks in the west are holding down the price of silver to the largest concentrated short position ever in any commodity ever traded.
  • The LBMA trades 3 billion ounces of silver per day, but only 300 million ounces are available for delivery, distorting the price through paper deliveries.
  • The Chinese and Indians are buying unrefined silver in Latin and South America, paying double the Western price, to refine it at home and drain the shelves.
  • They don’t have to fire missiles at us to win, they just have to take all the Strategic Commodities at subsidized prices.
     

Economic Reality vs. Official Statistics

 
  • Gold is at all-time highs with virtually no media Fanfare.
  • The willingness of foreign creditors to finance the US debt is coming to an end, as they are increasingly wary of holding US treasuries due to the country’s inflation and weaponization of the treasury market.
  • “If you go just simply to John Williams shadowstats.com, he’ll tell you just based upon the way they used to calculate inflation that it’s about 11% right now, not the 3% we’re being told.”
 

Mike 'Mish' Shedlock: Way Too Much Is Priced Into This Market" (Aug. 20, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

Economist Mike “Mish” Shedlock predicts a US recession and a market correction due to overpriced markets, distorted economic data, and asset bubbles created by the Fed’s QE policies.

 

Market and Economic Trends

 
  • I think way too much is priced into this Market.
  • I think we’re actually in a recession already.
  • I’m pretty convinced of a recession in the US, I’m even more convinced of it despite today’s retail sales numbers.
  • Delinquencies are now at the same levels as 2009, but this time they’re rising, not falling.
  • “I think we’re going to see at least 3/10 of a percent decline next month in the year-over-year and at least three more tents in the month after that.”
  • “I’m pretty confident here that we’re going to see a very sharp slowdown in jobs, maybe even in the next job report.”
  • We’re overstating employment by anywhere from three quarters to a full million, and employment is down and trending lower in almost every category.
  • “Way Too Much Is Priced Into This Market”
  • I think the next job report’s going to be a disaster.
     

Societal and Global Implications

 
  • Ivy Zelman, a highly respected real estate analyst, thinks that maybe the US has already crossed the threshold to becoming a renter nation, where the wealthy own all the real estate and rent it out to those who can’t afford to buy.
  • The boomer generation owns the majority of financial assets and has been less impacted by the rise in cost of living because the assets they’ve owned have gone up.
  • China is highly unlikely to pull the global economy out of a recession this time, unlike in the past.
  • The US is repeating the same mistake with electric vehicles, prioritizing domestic production of batteries and parts, which could lead to higher prices and hinder adoption.
  • China is subsidizing US consumers and we’re saying we don’t want it, we’d rather have US consumers pay more.
  • 75% of revisions to economic data sets are always to the downside and pretty substantial, making it difficult to put faith in these data sets.
  • Revisions to the jobs report are expected to be significant, with potential revisions of 700,000 to 1 million jobs, which will be revealed when the QCEW report is released on August 21st.

Ryan McMaken & Jonathan Newman: The High Cost of Kamala's Price Controls (August 22 2024)

Radio Rothbard...

Summary

 

Price controls, whether implemented broadly or temporarily, have undesirable effects and can lead to a regulated economy, and that allowing the market to work freely is the best way to provide for consumers’ needs and desires.

 

Economic Principles and Theories

 
  • Jonathan Newman wrote a column critiquing Paul Krugman’s claim that Harris hasn’t proposed price controls, titled “Krugman: Harris Hasn’t Proposed Price Controls, and It’s Good That She Did”.
  • We already know what happens when you have price controls, and Krugman knows this on some level, but apparently he’s unwilling to say this in his columns.
  • The concept of a “fair price” doesn’t really make sense in economics, as the fair price is whatever people are willing to pay and accept in a voluntary exchange.
  • Economists believe that high prices during crisis periods are a good thing, as they provide the right incentives for more supply to come to that region.
  • The price of gasoline needs to go up to signal to everybody that they need to economize gasoline and not use it to their heart’s content.
  • Higher prices attract additional supply to the area, which is exactly what consumers want, as it works to decrease the price and increase the supply of the product.
  • If you don’t allow prices to rise in emergency situations, you get the opposite effects, as there’s no reason for people outside the region to move their goods and supplies into the region.
  • Economists conclude that price controls, whether implemented broadly or on a few goods temporarily, have the same undesirable effect.
  • Economics is the only way to evaluate if you’re being “robbed” by the latest government policy and understand how you’re being robbed.
  • “Let the market work. The market economy is fantastic at providing for what consumers want and desire.”
  • The Nixon Administration’s imposition of wage and price controls in the 70s resulted in exactly what economists would have predicted in a freshman economics class.
  • Nixon’s wage and price controls, imposed after closing the gold window, were intended to solve the problem of rising prices, but ultimately led to 8.8% price inflation in 1973 and 12.2% in 1974.
  • Nixon’s wage and price controls in 1972 led to a surge in prices, which took years to recover from, according to a US Senate report in 1973.
     

Consequences of Government Intervention

 
  • “Eventually now you’ve just got price controls on everything and the market comes to a screeching halt.”
  • Imposing price controls can lead to a totally regulated economy, resulting in socialism with price controls everywhere.
  • Mises argued that settling for a middle ground between capitalism and socialism leads to a path of increasing intervention, rather than getting the best of both worlds.
 

Whitney Webb: Bitcoin as a Trojan Horse, Political Elite Corruption, Are Stablecoins the New CBDCs? (August 21, 2024)

Natalie Brunell...

Summary

 
 

The intertwining of government, organized crime, and intelligence agencies poses a significant threat to individual freedoms and privacy, particularly in the context of Bitcoin and financial surveillance, necessitating proactive efforts to protect these rights.

 

Corruption and Control in Political Systems

 
  • “The government is essentially run by organized crime and intelligence agencies that profit from crises while pulling the strings of both political parties.”
  • “Trusting establishment actors in the Bitcoin space is naive, especially with their ties to surveillance agencies like the CIA.”
  • “The powers that be have been thinking about Bitcoin for well over 10 years and have invested heavily in how to make it work for them.”
  • “In times of crisis, people are likely to accept solutions they normally wouldn’t, especially regarding their money and purchasing power.”
  • “Palantir doesn’t just run the intelligence community; they also run Wall Street, merging financial surveillance with government oversight.”
  • “Vote but don’t join a cult,” as Edward Snowden suggests, highlights the futility of expecting real change through political parties that are all bankrolled by the same oligarchs.
     

The Role of Bitcoin in Financial Freedom

 
  • “If Bitcoin is the sound money it should be what is transactable between people and robust privacy tools need to be built upon it.”
  • “Many hope that Bitcoin is a Trojan horse that can be introduced in a way that the powerful cannot stop.”
  • “If you want it to be transactable and challenge efforts to centralize it, then you need to be very proactive about making that a reality.”
  • “The next decade will be a battle for privacy and the right to self-custody, as the ethos of Bitcoin is threatened by centralization.”
     

Surveillance and Privacy in the Digital Age

 
  • “Refugees are being forced to scan their eyeballs for digital IDs and wallets to access basic necessities, highlighting a troubling trend in financial surveillance.”
  • “If you care about really human freedom, you should think about what you will do to opt out and not interact with those systems.”
  • “We have to fight for these freedoms; otherwise they’re going to be very quickly taken away from us and we’re never going to get them back.”
  • The fusion of big tech monopolies and state actors poses a significant threat to the public’s interest.
 

We are at the Precipice of a Major Turning Point for US Stocks… (August 16, 2024)

Game of Trades...

Summary

 

The US tech sector’s recent underperformance could be a warning sign for a broader market downturn, given its historical tendency to lead the market lower during recessions.

 
  • The US tech sector went from yielding a staggering 80% return in 2023 and 2024 to being a large underperformer throughout July and the beginning of August, dropping by 18% while the S&P only dropped 9%.
  • A move down in tech stocks would very likely drag the entire S&P 500 lower.
  • Many believe that the recovery of the tech sector is going to be short-lived and that ultimately the expensive technology sector is bound for the same fate as the technology sector of the late 1990s.
  • Many believe that the expensive valuations of these large cap tech stocks make them vulnerable to unwinding down, which could drag the rest of the market along with them.
  • The only exception to tech underperformance during recessions was during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, where tech companies actually outperformed significantly.
  • A big reversal in technology stocks will only come when an economic downturn in the US begins to materialize.
  • Tech stocks were violently underperforming Consumer Staples between October 2007 and January 2008 heading into the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Historically, when around 3/4 of the market was trending higher, it corresponded to a pretty healthy market environment, dating back to 2007.

Empress Royalty: 4 Producing Assets, Growth Through The Creation Of Royalties and Streams (August 23, 2024)

The KE Report...

Summary

 

Empress is forecasting significant revenue growth and plans to diversify its portfolio through strategic investments, leveraging its expertise and network to capitalize on opportunities in the mining industry.

 

  • We’re forecasting about $6 million in revenue for the end of 2024 and that’s with those four assets increasing production.
  • Silver prices have increased, benefiting Empress, and they’re advancing towards commercial production with a new CEO, Dan V Holden.
  • The company is looking forward to continued revenue growth from its assets, including the ones generating royalties, with no mention of any royalties running out in the near future.
  • The company’s approach to structuring streams allows for flexibility and understanding of the growth plans of the companies they’re helping to finance.
  • Empress was launched to provide financing to smaller mining companies in jurisdictions that were underserved by traditional streaming companies.
  • We know how to structure these deals and understand the permitting process, which is very quick to get permitted in a lot of these countries.
  • I think you do some things unique in the royalty space by the way your network works, using prior success and relationships in jurisdictions that are being overlooked.
  • The company plans to diversify its portfolio and make further investments, with a mandate of up to $25 million, and expects its stock to appreciate as its financial results are delivered and its ties to gold and silver are recognized.

John Williams: From Fake Stats to Real Repercussions, The Consequences of an Inflationary Depression (August 23, 2024)

Palisades Gold Radio...

Summary

 
 

The US government’s manipulation of economic statistics, particularly inflation, is leading to poor decision-making and potentially catastrophic consequences, making physical gold a recommended hedge against hidden inflation.

 

  • In the 70s, a one-worker household could raise a family, make ends meet, and have some savings, but that’s no longer possible due to inaccurate inflation data and stagnant wages.
  • The discrepancy between the two measures will likely be resolved in the political system, as the public will demand change when they realize they are not doing well financially.
  • At some point you’re going to have a voter revolution, it would be a matter of someone on the political spectrum raising that as an issue.
  • If someone were to raise the issue of inflation and explain how it affects the average person, they would likely rise quickly in the polls.
  • I think two years out you’re going to see a much higher inflation rate, a real problem inflation rate, and we’re going to be in a very deep economic downturn, an inflationary recession depression.
  • It’s an inflationary recession that can be very severe in both areas, severe inflation and severe economic downturn.
  • The system is not stable, and the fact that people are seeing prices rise is a sign that reality is hitting, and it’s what’s being seen in the underlying numbers, not what’s being reported.
  • The genie of inflation has been slowly getting out of the bottle and it’s going to be very difficult to contain it now.
     

Manipulation of Economic Data

 
  • The FED’s money supply is still off the charts, with a 150% year-over-year increase in the liquid money supply at one point, but they claim inflation is under control with a 3% increase the next month.
  • The headline numbers on inflation are “very political” and are being manipulated through gimmicks, such as the government’s control of gasoline prices, rather than actual efforts to contain inflation.
  • The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics was told to find a way to calculate the CPI that would save money for the Bureau, which the speaker took great offense to.
  • The real GDP is a “political construct” that is “very heavily gimmicked” and has a “very strange” relationship with underlying economic reality.
  • Cost of living adjustments, including those for Social Security, understate the real inflation and were specifically designed to give the US Congress more leeway in budget deficit spending.
     

Hedges Against Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

 
  • The best hedge against underlying inflation is holding physical gold, which is finally reaching the level that the alternate CPI measure has been showing, making it a store of wealth.
  • Physical gold can’t be intervened with and holds its real value over time, despite attempts to manipulate its price.
  • The ultimate hedge against the system’s heading is holding physical gold and silver, particularly gold with a low numismatic value, as it reflects the fundamental price of the metal and inflation.

 

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