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Top Ten Videos – August 5, 2024

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Claudia Sahm: Economic Danger Ahead Now That Key Recession Indicator Has Been Triggered? (August 4, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

Claudia Sahm’s recession indicator, the S rule, has been triggered for the first time since the 2020 covid crisis, signaling potential economic danger ahead and the need for a shift towards more powerful fiscal policy.

 

Economic indicators and policy implications

 
  • Claudia Sahm’s recession indicator, the S rule, has been triggered for the first time since the 2020 covid crisis, signaling potential economic danger ahead.
  • The Sahm Rule indicator was developed to put fiscal policy on autopilot in a thoughtful and responsible way, taking politics out of the decision-making process.
  • The recession indicator, known as the S roll, has been almost perfect since the 1970s, with only a few false positives, making it a reliable tool for predicting recessions.
  • “An early warning indicator like the Som roll can be really useful right I almost sort of liken it to like a tornado warning right.”
  • The level of unemployment rate itself is not a reliable indicator of a recession, it’s really about the changes in the economy that signal a contraction in economic activity.
  • The rules of thumb, theories, and basics have not held up, leading to uncertainty and unusual economic conditions.
  • The recession indicator has been surprisingly useful, even though it wasn’t supposed to be about being a recession expert.
  • The Fed’s increasing concern about the job market and moderated language on job gains indicate a potential economic danger ahead.
  • “That’s a sign that many people are actually feeling pretty vulnerable about their their or have a lack of confidence in in the system going forward.”
     

Impact of fiscal and monetary policy on recession prediction

 
  • Fiscal policy can work really fast, getting money out into consumer pockets quickly, while a change in monetary policy doesn’t have the same breadth and speed in its effects on the real economy.
  • The FED should begin easing policy, I think it’s a missed opportunity not to ease in July to start the cycle.
  • Claudia Sahm believes that fiscal policy is very powerful and sometimes we need power, as problems have been relying too much on monetary policy which has its limitations.
  • The FED has time and time again violated some of its own rules like the Taylor rule, conveniently putting it on and off the shelf to suit a broader objective.

Does Austrian Business Cycle Theory Help the Investor? (August 4, 2024)

Human Action Podcast...

Summary

 
 

The Austrian Business Cycle Theory provides valuable insights for investors to understand and predict economic trends, particularly in relation to the impact of interest rates and market distortions.

  • Austrian economists accurately predicted the housing bubble, providing valuable insights for investors.
  • The quantitative easing is setting the economy up for disaster, giving a false sense of prosperity.
  • Major central banks suppressing interest rates for a long time led to investment in far-reaching stages of production and the incorporation of advanced technology in capital goods.
  • Artificially suppressed interest rates stimulate longer-term projects like housing and skyscrapers, impacting the economy.
  • Low interest rates can lead to misallocation of funds and a bubble in certain industries, causing a collapse when rates rise.
  • The Austrian theory of the business cycle argues that an artificially low interest rate can disrupt the proper allocation of resources in the economy.
  • The Austrian view is that artificially low interest rates during the so-called good period create malinvestments and an unsustainable feeling of prosperity, leading to an inevitable crash.
  • The Austrian Theory of the business cycle can make you alert to abnormalities in investing, helping you avoid the worst possible mistakes.

Fed Rates Cuts to Start in September - Short Term Rally for TLT? (August 1, 2024)

StockChartoftheDay...

Summary

 

The TLT may experience a short-term rally following Fed rate cuts in September, potentially reaching 115-120, aligning with the speaker’s long-term view of where rates are headed.

 

  • The FED’s pivot to potential rate cuts is a significant shift from the market being ultra-dovish at the beginning of the year.
  • The long-term view of where the rates are headed suggests a potential downward trend.
  • The long-term bond yield has shown a secular bear market and bull market in interest rates since the 60s.
  • The possibility of the 10-year bond yield going down to 2.75% before the next move higher is worth considering.
  • “There’s an 84% chance that they cut a quarter actually. There’s a 15% chance. They cut a half a point.”
  • “You’re going to see massive inflation the next move higher, so I think that’s part of the reason gold and silver are holding up.”
  • The next recession could lead to a $3 or $4 trillion deficit, impacting supply and demand for bonds.
  • The FED will start cutting and over the next year could cut between 150 and 175 basis points.
 

Tate Fegley: Bureaucrats in the Deep State (August 1, 2024)

Mises Media...

Summary

 

The deep state and the military-industrial Congressional complex create a system where there are incentives to inflate costs and prioritize the interests of the bureaucracy over taxpayers, leading to a lack of accountability and potential conflicts of interest.

 

  • The definition of the deep state is often manipulated to dismiss legitimate concerns as conspiracy theories, muddying the waters of accountability.
  • The existence of the military-industrial Congressional complex is evidence that the state faces a calculation problem in procurement and spending.
  • The revolving door between Congress and the defense industry raises concerns about cost distortions and dysfunctions.
  • Both the defense industry and Congressional side have incentives to inflate costs, creating a system where deals are made at a good price for the companies involved.
  • The selection process for bureaucrats in the deep state selects for conformity and against cost reduction, making it difficult to control costs and act in the interest of taxpayers.
  • The lack of market prices in the deep state leads to an inability to objectively determine cost overruns, creating a potential conflict of interest.
  • Mises discusses the power of bureaucrats as a voting block, highlighting their pecul interest as public employees over their interest as taxpayers.
  • Many bureaucrats in DC earn huge rents, with the average salary being much more than the average private sector salary, leading to a dedication to the survival of the bureaucracy as a political class.

Doug Casey: 26 Reasons Kamala will be the next President + Market Turmoil (August 2, 2024)

Doug Casey's Take...

Summary

 

The speaker believes that Kamala Harris is likely to become the next President of the United States due to a combination of Democratic advantage, media influence, potential stock market collapse, and uncertain times.

 

  • Gold is the strongest of the Commodities and is expected to go higher, while the stock market is rolling over.
  • All Americans should own guns and understand the principle of self-defense as a basic right of a free person.
  • “She had the record of the most liberal or most leftist Senator at the time if not ever in her voting record.”
  • “It just shows how effective this whole media world is at shaping a person and making somebody who is basically unacceptable to most people.”
 

David Morgan: Insiders Sell Billions In Stocks (August 3, 2024)

Liberty and Finance...

Summary

 
 

The timing of insider stock selling, the potential economic trouble signaled by CEOs selling stock, and the increasing demand for silver could all indicate that the market may be overvalued and that the price of silver could potentially surge.

 
  • The timing of insider stock selling is a cue and clue for everyone, signaling that the market may be overvalued.
  • The market is in a distribution cycle, with insiders selling large blocks of stocks without moving the market due to strong liquidity.
  • CEOs are selling a lot of stock right now, signaling potential economic trouble.
  • Gold is making nominal new highs, showing that something’s wrong because it should not be doing well if the stock market is doing well.
  • Silver is the metal of war and is crucial for military equipment due to its ability to withstand rough treatment and harsh conditions.
  • The limited supply and increasing demand from both industry and investors could drive the price of silver even higher.
  • The Dynamics for silver is probably as good now as they’ve ever been.
  • The potential for a big participant like Elon Musk to impact the silver market is significant, leading to a surge in awareness and interest.

Lobo Tiggre: Guide to Commodity Investing (August 1, 2024)

Mining Book...

Summary

 
 

The gold market may be indicating a potential pivot by the FED and a global increase in inflation, and the future of currency should be left to the market to decide.

 

Market Timing and Investment Discipline

 
  • The selloff in gold during the 2008 liquidity crunch was a ridiculous overreaction, creating a spectacular buying opportunity.
  • Having cash available to take advantage of a selloff and being disciplined is key in navigating the market, regardless of mainstream narratives.
  • Success in progress: Investing in a company with a discovery and consistent drilling results can lead to high returns.
  • “I’m more risk averse, I hate losing money, and I absolutely hate hearing from clients who lose money.”
  • Even with major headwinds, gold is holding up well and flirting with all-time highs, indicating real support in the market.
  • Even the most honest companies will never volunteer all the troubles they’re experiencing, so it’s important to ask hard questions as an investor.
     

Global Economic Trends and Currency Evolution

 
  • The green taxonomy now includes nuclear energy as part of the solution.
  • The demand for Uranium is massively skewed towards the demand, with countries like China and Europe building reactors as fast as they can.
  • Lobo Tiggre sees the world in a global recession, with ongoing problems in China and potential stagflation globally.
  • The gold market may be indicating that inflation is heading higher, suggesting a potential pivot by the FED and a global increase in inflation.
  • The trend of global dollarization takes decades to reach a tipping point or fizzle to irrelevancy, according to Lobo Tiggre.
  • Lobo Tiggre suggests that the future of currency, whether it’s gold, Bitcoin, or something else, should be left to the market to decide, rather than being dictated by Bitcoin maximalists or government mismanagement.
 

Mark Moss: Recession? ‘US Can’t Afford One’ – Massive Liquidity Injection Coming, Assets to Crash Up (August 1, 2024)

Kitco News...

Summary

 

The FED cannot afford a recession and is likely to inject massive liquidity into the economy, leading to a potential historic event and a significant rise in Bitcoin’s value.

 

Economic Policy and Inflation

 
  • The FED cannot afford a recession, so if we were to have one, it just means more inflation.
  • “I’m an inflation bull I believe the rest of this decade is extremely inflationary.”
  • “US Can’t Afford One”
  • The entire world reset in 2008, leading to massive quantitative easing and the growth of debt, making it impossible to handle a crash in asset prices.
  • “He believes in Freedom and we should have the freedom to choose.”
  • The 80-year financial Revolution cycle matches up with Ray Dalio’s long-term credit cycle, indicating a potential historic event in the making.
     

Bitcoin and Global Monetary System

 
  • Predictions suggest that the price of Bitcoin could reach as high as $400,000 if the government’s policy goes into place.
  • The concept of printing money and the potential implications for Bitcoin’s value and the global monetary system is a thought-provoking topic.
  • Maintaining the balance of the dollar’s value while setting up a backup plan for the inevitable shift to Bitcoin as a reserve asset is a delicate balancing act for the government.
  • Bitcoin has a 8.95 sensitivity, meaning for every 10% rise in liquidity, Bitcoin goes up by 90%.
  • “I think a million dollar Bitcoin by 2030 is in play, specifically when you look at what’s expected to happen with global liquidity and the sensitivity ratio that Bitcoin moves on.”
     

Asset Prices and Liquidity Injection

 
  • Massive liquidity injection is coming, causing assets to crash up.
  • The belief that there is no way to have more than about a 20% drawdown in asset prices without having the whole thing collapse, and the expectation of continued efforts to prop up and push asset prices sky high.
  • Massive liquidity injection into the economy and markets will lead to a crash up, devaluation of the dollar, and debasement of the global monetary system.
 

Egon Von Greyerz: Gold & Silver Could Now Move FAST (August 4, 2024)

CapitalCOSM...

Summary

 

Gold and silver are crucial assets for wealth preservation and protection against potential financial system problems, currency devaluation, and the continuous destruction of paper money.

 

Gold as a stable measure of purchasing power

 
  • Wealth preservation through gold investment has been critical for many individuals and families, especially during tough times.
  • The closure of the Gold window in 1971 led to unprecedented money printing, causing every currency to decline in real terms, making gold the only stable measure of purchasing power.
  • Gold thrives regardless of interest rates, and we are in a major uptrend for gold for a long time to come.
  • Gold is a crucial asset for wealth preservation, especially in the face of potential financial system problems and currency devaluation.
  • There isn’t enough gold to satisfy the demand at today’s prices, indicating a potential shortage and price increase.
  • Egon Von Greyerz believes that the money supply and the destruction of paper money are the key determinants of the gold price in the long run, not geopolitical events.
  • The recommendation to buy gold and silver is not just for the wealthy, but for everyone to protect themselves in difficult times.
  • Silver is very undervalued and there is a massive shortage of silver, with no major silver stocks anywhere, leading to a big demand and potential price increase.
  • Gold is the only money that has ever survived in history, while every single currency has gone to zero without exception.
     

Predictions for the future of stock markets and precious metals

 
  • Over the next five to ten years, stock markets are predicted to be massively down, while precious metals are expected to be up by multiples due to the continuous destruction of paper money.
  • Egon Von Greyerz predicts a potential 90-95% drop in the Dow Jones or S&P 500 against gold in the next few years, highlighting the importance of protecting against risk.

Clem Chambers: ‘Armageddon’ Here? Why Markets Are Crashing Right Now (August 2, 2024)

David Lin...

Summary

 

The market is experiencing fear and uncertainty, leading to a significant correction and a rotation of money out of highly valued shares, but the speaker does not believe it will lead to Armageddon.

 

Market Indicators and Reactions

 
  • CME fed watch is now predicting an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut by September, that’s huge.
  • “Good news is bad news and bad news is good news” – the market’s reaction to economic reports is not always predictable.
  • Japan’s interest rates paying people to borrow money has led to a surge in carry trades, with investors borrowing money to invest in stocks, driving up stock prices.
  • When Japan is putting their money back and trying to push the Yen up, you have to start liquidating your assets so the money flow.
  • Unemployment numbers and negative manufacturing index are early indicators of a potential recession, prompting the Fed to halt pulling money out of the US market.
  • The vix is now at 29, the highest level since 2020, indicating a lot of fear in the market right now.
  • The bigger the unknown, the bigger the vix because vix is a measure of uncertainty.
  • The majority of the money in the world is tied up in just seven to ten stocks, leading to potential market instability.
  • The market is pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 basis point cut in two months, despite Powell verbally rejecting the idea.
  • “The vix went up 56% today, the NASDAQ is down 3%.”
     

Global Economic Trends and Impacts

 
  • Bitcoin could be for war, similar to gold, and has a place in the asset Pantheon.
 
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