December 2025 COMEX saw 23,970 gold contracts (2.4M oz) and 835 silver contracts (41.5M oz) stand for delivery in just two days, while November delivered an abnormal 19.7M oz despite not being a scheduled delivery month for either metal.
LBMA delivered 90M oz off COMEX since October 2025 as delivery mechanisms break down amid the largest ever COMEX and SLV short positions, signaling physical market stress.
Wealthy investors are taking massive physical deliveries of gold and silver, positioning themselves two steps ahead of average investors for a coming paradigm shift where manipulation and free money become unsustainable.
CME cooling failure caused only metals markets to halt during low volume while bonds, FX, repo, and equity futures stayed online, suggesting targeted system breakdown and potential trust collapse in COMEX price discovery.
Asian physical markets will ultimately replace Western derivatives exchanges as the real arbiter of precious metals prices as trust in Western price discovery mechanisms breaks down.
Silver could reach $96-$605 based on cup and handle breakout above $50 and the gold-silver ratio, with the 42:1 ratio implying $95 silver if gold reaches $4,240.
USA Tether, led by Trump’s crypto advisor Bo Hines, will issue stablecoins backed by US Treasuries with AML/KYC/KYT compliance for transaction tracking, creating synthetic Treasury demand while restricting holders from capturing Treasury interest.
Stablecoins will follow strict government rules for transaction screening and enforcement with no privacy or opting out, functioning like a CBDC with full transactional surveillance.
Texas and other states are implementing digital transactions backed by physical gold and silver held in state-run depositories, with laws often specifying American-made coins to protect purchasing power from the falling dollar.
Japan’s decision to raise interest rates will unwind carry trades and bring money back to Japan, putting pressure on bonds and currencies worldwide with serious unexpected effects on global markets.
Suppressed interest rates have distorted asset prices by preventing real price discovery, but when rates rise overvalued assets will deflate while precious metals will soar as manipulation becomes unsustainable and physical demand drives exponential price increases.
Japan’s debt exceeds 250% of GDP with interest costs now consuming over 5% of GDP, surpassing defense budgets and social programs, creating an unsustainable borrowing cycle with no viable fix.
Rising Japanese interest rates threaten the yen carry trade where trillions in global capital are positioned on stable yen-dollar rates, risking massive unwinding deals and cascading global financial instability.
Gold prices and Japanese 30-year bond yields have moved in tandem since 2011, indicating rising rates signal a financial cliff where gold becomes the primary inflation-resistant currency.
Central banks and Tether-backed stablecoins are accumulating tons of gold regularly as non-price sensitive buyers, suggesting a potential monetary reset where currencies return to gold backing for stability.
CME exchange shutdown during historic silver price surge coincided with potential metal delivery issues, indicating system weakness where exchanges halt trading to prevent panic when unable to meet physical delivery claims.
Industrial and monetary demand for silver is rising while mine supply remains inadequate, creating conditions for a potential short squeeze where large buyer triggers panic buying making silver “unobtainable” at any price.
A handful of tech companies prop up the S&P 500 with potential AI bubble bursting in 2026, suggesting long-dated put options as insurance against serious equities bear market.
Long-term interest rates could spike even as Fed cuts short-term rates, with government interest expense potentially reaching $2 trillion (dwarfing military budget) triggering loss of confidence in U.S. bonds and bond market crisis.
22 companies recommended by Altimetry were acquired in the past 6 years, with some experiencing 100-120% stock pops in a single day, driven by regulatory changes and market conditions in banks, tech, energy, and healthcare sectors.
Private equity firms with capital tied up for 10+ years are poised to clear their balance sheets by selling companies, taking advantage of the current M&A-friendly environment and easing interest rates.
Strategic acquirers like United Rentals and Constellation Software that make small, easy acquisitions and extract value have produced 4,000-5,000% returns in 15 years, making them buy-and-hold forever candidates.
Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan required all direct reports to work with AI-savvy juniors to find efficiencies as power costs surged 300% in Buffalo over 5 years, highlighting AI’s potential for wealth creation.
Altimetry’s Uniform Accounting reveals current market valuations are reasonable at 24x PE compared to neutral 20.5-21x PE given inflation and tax rates, suggesting double-digit earnings growth is possible.
Valuation impacts the amplitude of stock moves based on embedded expectations but does not drive market direction; high P/E ratios limit potential market rises if expectations are met.
The AI narrative is producing a “fear of getting in” bubble that keeps people from buying stocks, despite underlying opportunities revealed by data analysis.
In a bull market, investing in companies with real earnings growth and reasonable valuations can lead to 160-170% average returns for those that double, with a 3 out of 5 chance of doubling again.
Stock momentum, the factor that has worked almost every year for the last 25 years, is real and should not be ignored despite academic claims it shouldn’t work.
Lower interest rates and steeper yield curves benefit banks, especially those focused on C&I financing over consumer financing, as banks have built up healthy reserves to absorb consumer issues.
Credit availability and demand are key drivers of economic growth, with companies refinancing and borrowing for growth in an environment of increasing credit, leading to revenue and earnings growth that powers the market higher.
Great investors like Bill Miller, Seth Klarman, and David Einhorn suggest three steps to picking a great stock: understand the market narrative, identify what the market is wrong about, and determine the catalyst for realization.
Visa exemplifies a durable company with a defensible moat that investors should buy and hold forever, regardless of short-term concerns like potential disruption from blockchain or stablecoins.
Silver’s rally to $57/oz is driven by 5-year supply deficit and industrial demand from EVs (requiring double the silver vs combustion engines) and solar panels, not speculation like the Hunt brothers’ 1980s buying spree
LBMA silver inventories have shrunk to only 4-6 weeks supply with leasing rates reaching 40%/year, indicating severe market stress and potential shortage driving prices higher
Real all-time high for silver adjusted for inflation is $180/oz, suggesting potential for triple-digit prices in this generational bull market with violent price swings and sharp pullbacks expected
Many silver miners are undervalued at current $57/oz silver price, trading as if silver is only $25/oz, offering multiples upside potential if silver reaches $50/oz by 2027 based on earnings and P/E ratio calculations
Top silver miner picks include Majestic Silver, Pan-American Silver, Silver Crest, Heckler, Discovery Silver, Andian Precious Metals, Kingsgate Consolidated, and Silver X (new producer with leveraged upside potential)
Many companies with “silver” in the name are unprofitable and may run out of cash before producing any silver, requiring fundamental analysis before investment
Digital euros limit wallet balance to €3,000 with automatic sweeps to/from bank accounts; they are central bank liability unlike bank-created euros, creating liquidity risk for smaller banks holding long-term loans
In banking crisis, emergency rules may cap digital wallet transfers at €1,000, creating two-tier currency system where old euros (bank liability) may become worthless if restricted, effectively making government debt worthless
Digital euros enable enforcement of negative interest rates and tax compliance, with crisis-time transfer restrictions creating more valuable digital euros versus old bank-liability euros
AI stock prices driven by psychology not fundamentals, relying on optimistic growth assumptions (e.g., OpenAI’s ChatGPT needing $100/month to be profitable), with competition limiting individual company growth and sudden psychology shift risking collapse
Clive Thompson’s Beat the Benchmark 2025 portfolio up 37% YTD contains no AI, gold, silver, bitcoin, or crypto stocks, focusing on companies with genuine products, growing profits, good cash flow, and safety
Hoenig gives better than 50% odds the Fed will cut rates in December despite 4.1-4.2% unemployment and 3% inflation well above the 2% target, driven by pressure from Treasury and White House rather than economic necessity.
The Fed’s dual mandate of price stability is misinterpreted as a 2% inflation target when it should be close to zero, as mild deflation can reflect productivity improvements and benefit the bottom 50% without significant assets.
Keeping inflation at 3% for another 3-4 years will create social unrest with long-term consequences, as cumulative effects make it difficult for those without strong market positions to keep up with rising costs.
The Fed faces pressure to resume QE and buy government debt to finance $2 trillion in new debt and refinance $9-11 trillion annually, risking fiscal dominance where monetary policy becomes subservient to fiscal spending.
The $38 trillion debt has two-thirds tied to entitlement programs, and with slow growth of 1-2% rather than promised 3-4%, debt could exceed $50 trillion by decade’s end.
Former Fed official warns the Fed may have to print money to buy up the fiscal deficit that foreign and private sectors don’t absorb, in order to peg interest rates below their natural level.
Lowering interest rates near zero with QE worsened wealth distribution, creating a K economy where the bottom 50% falls further behind those with assets benefiting from inflation and asset price rises.
The K-shaped recovery shows the top 20% doing well while the bottom 80% struggles, with strong Christmas demand masking underlying economic disparities despite stable headline numbers.
Limit Fed’s annual reserve growth to 2-4%, consistent with real economic growth, with strict exceptions for crises, to prevent the 20% growth rate proven to cause problems and out-of-control money printing.
Gold standard provided external discipline; limiting reserve creation could achieve similar benefits if strictly adhered to, avoiding the human factor that disrupts systems through discretionary policy decisions.
The Trump administration is putting enormous pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs, with President Trump publicly criticizing Powell and pushing for aggressive rate cuts, while potential successors like Hasset audition for the job.
The politicization risk if Hasset becomes Fed chair includes the danger of the Fed becoming a rubber stamp for presidential policies rather than an independent actor, particularly if administration goals conflict with economic realities.
Quantitative Easing at zero interest rates for years enabled politicians to spend without consequences, failing the Fed’s mandate of maintaining price stability and creating a crutch for Congress to spend more.
Politicians avoid fiscal austerity and benefit cuts due to unpopularity, only embracing it after a severe crisis, as revolutionary changes are anathema and they face backlash from constituents and Capitol Hill.
The 2022 US Treasury sanctions on the Russian central bank and freezing of sovereign reserve assets shattered the assumption that dollar reserves are sacrosanct, triggering a structural shift where central banks globally began steadily increasing gold purchases quarter by quarter, with gold now surpassing treasuries as a preferred reserve asset.
The BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is forming trade frameworks that reduce reliance on the US dollar, using gold as a neutral reserve asset to maintain monetary independence and avoid taking sides in the US-China geopolitical struggle.
The Shanghai Gold Exchange is experiencing soaring physical gold deliveries, rapidly growing in importance and challenging traditional Western exchanges like COMEX and LBMA as a vital part of the global gold trading network.
Gold’s role as a trust anchor operates cyclically—it peaked in 1980 when trust was lowest and inflation rampant, diminished as institutional trust grew, and has been rising again over the last 20 years as trust in fiat currencies and government institutions has eroded.
Gold’s price reflects the dollar’s declining value rather than gold itself changing—gold is a sovereign asset with intrinsic value while other asset prices fluctuate around it, making it the only true neutral reserve asset that cannot be confiscated if held in a country’s own central bank vaults.
Gold is breaking out to all-time highs in every major currency, signaling a global loss of trust in fiat currencies, with Eastern countries already treating gold ownership as a cultural norm and savings hedge against government mismanagement while Western retail demand is still developing.
The world operated on some form of gold standard for the vast majority of the last 250 years, with the current 50-year fiat experiment being an anomaly that removed the constraint on politicians’ ability to promise and spend money they don’t have.
Gold provides instant liquidity during financial crises, as demonstrated in 2008 when it was sold to meet margin calls—while the price may temporarily fall during such events, gold’s purchasing power relative to other assets often increases significantly.
Gold’s neutrality as a reserve asset allows countries to avoid choosing sides in geopolitical conflicts because 0.9999 pure gold is identical and trustworthy for all counterparties, facilitating better settlement systems than stablecoin/treasury-backed systems that depend on confidence in US Treasury markets.
Gold-backed settlement systems can function on net settlement between trading partners who trust each other, with gold’s inherent trustworthiness enabling this mechanism unlike unstable treasury-based systems vulnerable to sanctions and political manipulation.
Gold’s 6,000-year history of trust makes it a more credible monetary anchor than Bitcoin’s 16-year history, which lacks widespread credibility among the masses and central banks despite its technological advantages, with gold remaining more accessible and trusted globally.
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) offer control mechanisms to central banks but face significant trust issues and public opposition due to historically low faith in central banking institutions—they represent solutions designed for central banks rather than citizens.
BRICS launched the Unit on October 31, 2023 as a 40% gold-backed currency with the remaining 60% split equally among main BRICS currencies at 12% each, operating in a controlled pumpkin patch phase with real transactions published daily on blockchain rails alongside national currencies.
The entire Unit structure is priced in gold terms rather than fiat currencies, positioning gold as the password to cross the bridge between East and West as BRICS aims to create a financial divide requiring access to both gold and BRICS currencies for international trade.
The BRICS Unit’s design mirrors a structure nearly adopted at the 1944 Bretton Woods Summit before being pushed aside for dollar dominance and the IMF SDR system, making its success overdetermined due to gold backing and proven historical viability.
The Unit operates as a token-like structure with blockchain payment rails that can connect to various systems excluding SWIFT, functioning as a serious alternative to the Western financial system rather than a replacement for national currencies.
China is experiencing a slow-motion rolling squeeze in metals markets with industrial-level metal shortages, rolling backwardation, and losses on carry trades from financializing the problem, indicating serious stress in the system.
Gold has become the second most important reserve currency at approximately 27%, displacing the euro as countries accelerate de-dollarization and de-euroization by diversifying out of US Treasuries into gold as a neutral, non-inflatable reserve asset.
Central banks have been buying over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, with UAE accounting for 25% of global gold trade, and when combined with China and India, these three countries represent 2/3 of global gold demand, forming the structural foundation of the current bull market.
The confiscation of Russian FX reserves triggered a political awakening globally, accelerating the shift toward gold as countries seek monetary alternatives and safe haven assets outside traditional Western-controlled reserve systems.
Morgan Stanley recommends a 60/20/20 portfolio (60% equities, 20% bonds, 20% gold) to replace the dead 60/40 portfolio, as equities and bonds have become positively correlated, making gold essential as a non-correlated asset for inflation volatility protection.
The gold/silver ratio above 80 is historically cheap compared to the median of 60, with the ratio trending down during gold bull markets, positioning silver for triple-digit prices with even more attractive risk/reward than gold itself.
Financial repression measures are intensifying, with Italy proposing a 12.5% tax on undeclared gold (26% without proof of purchase price) and Germany requiring ID for gold purchases over €2,000, while Austria allows up to €10,000 without identification.
US government interest in gold-backed bonds and gold revaluation aims to defend the dollar’s reserve status while making US manufacturing more competitive, boosting gold’s appeal as a monetary alternative regardless of actual currency backing.
Michael Burry’s fund closure serves as a late-cycle indicator, signaling exhausted skeptics and one-sided positioning focused on AI stocks like Nvidia, with the “this time is different” narrative pushing value investors out before a predictable market correction.
Gold served as money for thousands of years until governments forcibly replaced it with fiat currency just 50 years ago, and central banks are now the main driver of the current bull run due to distrust in US dollar and government bonds.
The current precious metals bull market is in early innings and could trigger a fundamental monetary transformation, potentially returning to a gold standard or gold-backed settlement currency as Western and Eastern financial markets collide.
Keynesian economics promotes state-controlled government spending and manipulated interest rates, while Austrian economics advocates for market-driven monetary systems and private property rights, representing fundamentally opposed ideologies.
Central bank policies create economic bubbles and worsen wealth inequality by favoring asset-rich individuals who can leverage existing wealth through low interest rates and credit availability, while the working class only experiences higher prices.
The Federal Reserve’s flexible average inflation targeting admits to the inevitable reality of inflation by projecting future improvement despite current issues, but lacks convincing power over markets and the productive class.
Silver remains a monetary metal with over 50% of consumption for investment purposes despite industrial demand growth, and its unique supply and demand dynamics could drive significant price increases.
AI and private equity bubbles lack public data and transparency, resembling the housing crisis where problems went undetected until too late, as Fed’s low interest rates created unsustainable balance sheets and debt across the economy.
The Fed’s power to extend bubbles through rate cuts is not infinite, as demonstrated by the 2000 tech bubble and 2008 housing crisis, making eventual market corrections and reality checks inevitable.
The Mises Institute, foundation of Austrian economics, offers free access to Friedrich Hayek’s influential articles on inflation, government, and economic principles for students, professors, and the general public.
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