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Top Ten Videos – July 29, 2024

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Steve Hanke: Math All But Guarantees A Recession By 2025 (July 25, 2024)

Thoughtful Money...

Summary

 

The current contraction in the money supply in the United States is likely to lead to a recession by 2025, and the Federal Reserve should be held accountable for not addressing this issue.

 

Historical Monetary Contractions and Recessions

 
  • Only four monetary contractions before the current one, all followed by recessions.
  • “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
  • Here’s an institution that’s responsible for monetary policy and the production of money in the United States and they don’t even look at money.
  • The last time we had a money supply contraction like this was 100 years ago, and the data shows us that after you have a contraction like this, more often than not, you have a recession.
  • Steve Hanke suggests that the chairman of the FED should be fired if they can’t hit the inflation target over a two-year period.
  • “We Know by the way that inflation coming down is baked in the cake because of what happened starting two years ago right with a contraction of the money supply.”
     

Impact of Money Supply Contraction on Economy

 
  • The math all but guarantees a recession by 2025 according to Steve Hanke.
  • The US dollar is losing domestic purchasing power due to inflation, but it is still the best currency relative to others.
  • “Contraction in the money supply is going to lead to continued decline in inflation, continued decline in interest rates, and probably a recession early next year.”
  • Math generally wins out over the long scope of things, and when money supply starts shrinking, the economy has to react.
  • Steve Hanke predicts a recession by 2025 based on math, challenging the idea of a soft landing.

Michael Saylor: Keynote Bitcoin 2024 (July 26, 2024)

Bitcoin Magazine...

Summary

 

Bitcoin has the potential to revolutionize the storage of long-term capital and rebuild the global economy with digital technology.

 

  • It’s $900 trillion of global wealth, spread across physical and financial assets that are 20th century ideas and technology.
  • Bitcoin is digital Capital, immortal, immutable, and immaterial, solving the problem of transforming capital from financial and physical assets to digital assets.
  • Digital assets like Bitcoin are in a class all their own when you compare them to all the other assets for Capital preservation, living in the domain of a thousand to 100,000 years.
  • Digital capital is worth 10-15 trillion a year and hundreds of trillions of dollars, with a massive return of 55% for the past four years.
  • Bitcoin could reach $13 million a coin by 2045, potentially becoming 7% of the world’s assets.
  • “Dos and don’ts for national Bitcoin strategy: reallocate treasury from gold and bonds to a 10,000-year asset, issue currency to buy Bitcoin, issue debt to buy Bitcoin, encourage Bitcoin ownership with favorable laws, protect self-custody for individuals and corporations, and support integration with the banking system of your country.”
  • Pursuing the triple Maxi strategy with Bitcoin can strengthen a nation’s financial and national security, making it difficult for others to steal or seize digital capital.
  • “You’re staring at a trillion dollars of proof but there’s still thousand X to come.”

Peter St.Onge: Canada “Worst Decline in 40 Years” (July 25, 2024)

Peter St. Onge...

Summary

 

Canada is experiencing its worst economic decline in 40 years, with flat wages, falling GDP, high taxes, and increasing cost of living, leading to financial hardship for many middle-class families.

 
  • Canada’s standard of living is on track for its worst decline in 40 years, with flat wages and falling real GDP.
  • Incomes in Canada are at the level of West Virginia.
  • Canadian taxes are halfway to the Soviet Union, with middle-class families paying half of their income in taxes.
  • 70% of Canadians now agree that “Canada is broken,” showing a widespread sentiment of dissatisfaction with the current state of the country.
  • 42% of Canadians are considering moving to another country due to the rapid decline in Canada’s economy, with government workers growing almost four times faster than the private sector.

Chris Macintosh: We are Facing a 1 in 100-Year Financial Rebalancing (July 24, 2024)

Palisades Gold Radio...

Summary

 

The financial environment is experiencing significant imbalance and potential for gold to increase in value, and individuals should invest for the long term, diversify with physical assets, and consider global financial rebalancing and potential legislative changes to mitigate risks.

 

Financial Market Anomalies and Divergence

 
  • “The probabilities are overwhelmingly on Gold’s side that is the best environment to see gold increase its value.”
  • The top 10 companies within the S&P 500 now account for one of the largest percentages in history, indicating a significant anomaly in the financial markets.
  • There’s a massive Divergence between what’s happening in the actual economy and what we’re seeing in the stock market.
  • The problematic valuation of assets in the financialized world is not reflective of actual productivity in the economy.
  • Automated selling can trigger a cascade effect, leading to significant market downturns without human intervention.
  • Owning assets that nobody wants to own has resulted in beating the S&P 500, despite negative connotations, highlighting the unpredictability of financial markets.
  • The underlying flows of capital into passive buckets are slowing, as evidenced by the recent 7% drop in the S&P 500 and the 12% increase in micro caps.
  • When capital stops flowing into overvalued equity markets, it starts moving out and looks for a safe haven, potentially leading to a shift towards owning bonds in the short term.
     

Implications of Sovereign Debt and Inflation

 
  • The sovereign debt markets are potentially facing a 1 in 100-year cycle, with the end of the debt cycle and inflation coming through.
  • The time to prepare for global financial shifts is now, before it happens.
  • “The Deep State’s probably got what they need out of it for now, Black Rock’s going to walk away with most of what’s left of Ukraine, so you’ll own nothing and be happy basically for the Ukrainians and Black Rock will be really happy and they’ll walk away with what they wanted.”
     

Taking Action in the Face of Fear

 
  • Chris Macintosh compares fear to riding an off-road bike, emphasizing the importance of taking action when faced with fear.
  • “The moment you start taking action is the moment your brain starts working towards the solution and then you don’t have fear anymore.”
  • It’s still better to live life actively moving forward and still get it wrong, rather than doing nothing and still have a bad outcome.
 

How Economists Evaluate Tariffs Versus Income Taxes (July 27, 2024)

Human Action Podcast...

Summary

 

Economists generally favor free trade over tariffs, and consumption taxes over income taxes, due to their potential impact on social welfare and economic efficiency.

 

  • The standard free market economist argument in favor of free trade is not one of reciprocity, but rather focuses on raising real income for Americans as a whole.
  • When economists analyze the impact of a tax, it’s not just about the flows of money to the government, but also about social welfare and economic efficiency.
  • It’s not enough just to say that a lower tax burden is more efficient, as the impact and assessment of taxes is more complex than just the amount collected.
  • The impact of a tax is not simply looking at the total dollar amounts, but also the resulting economic consequences and dead weight loss.
  • The difference between who a tax is formally levied upon and who bears the burden of it depends on the elasticities of supply and demand.
  • Economists believe in taxing a wide base at a low rate to raise revenue with minimal distortion to economic activity.
  • The distortionary effect of the income tax gets enhanced when it’s levied in conjunction with a carbon tax, even if the carbon tax makes economic sense on its own.
  • There’s something else going on that you need to check your intuition about when it comes to evaluating tariffs versus income taxes.
  • Tariffs have zero effect on jobs, they only change the real wages earned in those jobs, making them a controversial economic policy.

George Gammon: Banks Know a Crash Is Coming, Most Powerful Indicator Is Signaling U.S. Recession (July 27, 2024)

Kitco News...

Summary

 

Banks are preparing for a crash and recession, with indicators pointing towards an imminent U.S. recession and potential economic trouble, leading to a decrease in lending and potential for a major policy mistake by the Fed.

 

Economic indicators signaling an impending recession

 
  • The Fed is always behind the curve and reacting to crises, leading to a potential hard landing for the economy.
  • The inversion of short-term interest rates being higher than long-term interest rates, along with the FED increasing interest rates, is a strong indicator of an impending recession.
  • Unrealized losses across the US rose to $517 billion at the end of the first quarter of 2024, 10 times the unrealized losses during the height of the GFC.
  • Speculation of aggressive rate cuts in 2024 may not be enough to avert the unfolding banking crisis, as the situation still has to play out.
  • The FED is always behind the curve and takes an elevator down in response to a crisis, not just a slight decrease like taking the stairs.
  • The yield curve sniffs out the hitting the fan, and the banksters know about it.
  • The yield curve is a powerful indicator of a recession, and the current gap in the yield curve signals a 56% probability of a recession by June 2025.
  • The release valve for the economic impact could be crazy inflation and devaluation of currency, but a hard landing is a higher probability.
     

Impact of banking system and financial institutions on the economy

 
  • The banking system and financial institutions, both in the United States and outside, are flashing warning signs, indicating a potential hard landing.
  • The banks are not lending because the risk-reward doesn’t make sense, as they see storm clouds and massive counterparty risk in the real economy.
  • The global monetary system is simply a network of bank balance sheets, and a banking system failure will inevitably lead to an economic crash.
  • Banks are aware of an impending crash, as the most powerful indicator is signaling a U.S. recession.
  • The fragility of the global monetary system is much bigger now than it was in 2007 due to the growth of the EUR dollar system and financial engineering.

Andy Schectman: SILVER is the Most Undervalued Asset I've Ever Seen in 35 Years of Finance (July 24, 2024)

Commodity Culture...

Summary

 

Western commercial banks are manipulating the price of silver, which is significantly undervalued, and other countries are strategically investing in silver to challenge this manipulation and reshape the global economy.

 

Market Manipulation and Suppression

 
  • “It’s very interesting that when you look at the price currently there are eight Banks eight that hold the largest concentrated Shore position of any commodity ever traded in the history of the Cox Market.”
  • The largest concentrated short position in any commodity traded is in silver, indicating significant manipulation of the market by Western commercial banks.
  • Silver is the trade of a generation and the value of a generation, held down by Western banks.
  • The brain dead suppression of silver in the West is funding the military-industrial complex and hundreds of wars, while other governments and sovereign wealth funds are standing for delivery.
  • Silver is depleting in nature and coming out of the ground at 7 to 1, yet it’s valued at 80 to 1, which doesn’t make sense.
  • Silver is the most undervalued asset in 35 years of finance.
  • The price of silver is being wickedly manipulated, with eight Banks holding the largest concentrated short position in any commodity ever traded on Comex.
     

Global Demand and Strategic Investments

 
  • Central banks like India have bought over 700 million ounces of silver in the last two and a half three years.
  • Countries are buying Western Gold and Silver, having it delivered to China, and offloading it off of the exchanges, revealing a coordinated effort to stand for delivery and challenge Western suppression.
  • The increase in India’s silver imports from the UAE went from $2.2 million to 1.44 billion over the same period in 2024, a 654 fold increase in one year.
  • China’s strategic investments in resources and infrastructure through the Belt Road initiative are reshaping the global economy and positioning silver as a highly valuable asset.
 

Thomas DiLorenzo: Axis of Evil: America’s Three Worst Presidents (July 28, 2024)

Mises Media...

Summary

 
Tom DiLorenzo lays out three worst US Presidents in history.
 

Egon von Greyerz: Catastrophic Economic Collapse & The Next Great Depression Looming (July 27, 2024)

As Good As Gold Australia...

Summary

 

The world is heading towards a potential catastrophic economic collapse, leading to a tectonic shift away from the US dollar as a reserve currency, and the best way to preserve wealth in the coming years is through investing in gold and silver.

Economic Collapse Predictions and Analysis

 
  • The timing of economic collapses is difficult to predict, but the signs are not looking good for business, and we could be heading into a second Great Depression.
  • Banks and governments have been skillful in feeding the world with unlimited amounts of Fiat money, causing the bubble to grow bigger for the last 20 years.
  • The time to postpone economic collapse by printing more money is coming to an end, as deficits and problems continue to grow, and nobody wants to buy US treasuries anymore.
  • The West is in a now terminal decline for a very long period, while the East and the BRICS will do better.
  • The potential catastrophic economic collapse is leading to a tectonic shift away from the US dollar as a reserve currency.
  • The ongoing printing of money by the Western World will be necessary for survival, but ultimately they will fail, leading to a catastrophic economic collapse.
     

Precious Metals and Wealth Preservation

 
  • Egon von Greyerz is an absolute icon in the precious metals industry and founder of Mador Asset Management in Gold Switzerland.
  • Gold is primarily for wealth preservation purposes and will maintain purchasing power more than any other asset in the next five or 10 years.
  • “You should be higher rather than lower because there’s nothing else that can do better than gold in my view in coming years silver of course.”
  • Egon von Greyerz predicts that silver is on its way to break the $50 mark and go to much higher levels in the future.
  • “As JP Morgan said, gold is money. Everything else is credit.”

Doug Casey': Who Really Runs America? (June 26, 2024)

Doug Casey's Take...

Summary

 
 

Thinking entrepreneurially, providing goods or services, and investing in the resource sector are important strategies for surviving and thriving in a competitive and uncertain world.

 

  • Doug Casey emphasizes the importance of thinking entrepreneurially and providing goods or services to survive in a competitive world.
  • The media machine shapes public opinion and people can no longer make rational decisions on their own.
  • Doug Casey’s personal connections with Harry Brown and David Hackworth demonstrate the impact of literature and shared experiences in forming strong friendships.
  • It’s shameful that many US congressmen and high government officials are dual citizens of Israel and the US, with divided loyalties.
  • The resource area, including oil, natural gas, uranium, gold, and other metals, is the cheapest area of the market with companies selling for low multiples of earnings and offering fat dividends.
  • During a depression, the winner is just the person that loses the least, so how do you put yourself in that position?

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