Macleod argues that China is deliberately dumping dollars — evidenced by roughly 700 tons of gold purchases this year, over 2,000 tons of silver imports in the first half of 2026, and instructions to its commercial banks to lighten up on US Treasuries — because Beijing believes the dollar is heading to zero, marking the earliest sign of a von Mises-style “crackup boom.” He contends Japan is the immediate flashpoint, with the yen at four-decade lows, JGB yields rising against a 240% debt-to-GDP load, and a Persian Gulf energy crisis that could push Japanese inflation well above 5%, forcing capital repatriation that damages all G7 markets. He also argues China is preparing to put the yuan on a gold standard — backed by an estimated 30,000–40,000 tons of state-held gold — while socialism (“communism lite”) accelerates the West’s decline, claiming even Trump governs as a socialist interventionist.
China’s dollar dump and crackup boom thesis: Macleod claims China’s purchases of ~700 tons of gold this year, 2,000+ tons of silver imports in six months (equal to its previous six years of exports), plus copper, fertilizer, and sulfuric acid hoarding, all share one common factor — paying with and disposing of dollars because the PBOC won’t wait for the dollar to collapse.
Yuan gold standard preparations: He points to SGE vaulting facilities in Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, and possibly Malaysia and Zurich where gold moves only via yuan payments, a July 24th deadline for Chinese banks to close speculative gold/silver positions, and relaxed PBOC export permissions — arguing China could fix a gold-yuan rate “overnight” but is waiting so it can frame the move as protection from a G7 currency crisis rather than be blamed for killing fiat.
Japan as the systemic trigger: With the yen at four-decade lows, 90% energy import dependence, debt-to-GDP near 240% (versus ~45% during the 1973 oil crisis that produced 30% Japanese inflation), Macleod argues rising JGB yields will force institutions to repatriate capital, cutting off Japan’s role as the G7’s major capital exporter.
Dollar overownership and the debt trap: He claims foreigners hold roughly $22 trillion in US equities and will sell rather than be attracted by higher yields, since rising bond yields worsen a US debt trap where a declining tax base can’t cover interest costs — turning any crisis into general dollar liquidation.
Socialism as “communism lite” across the G7: Macleod alleges likely incoming UK PM Andy Burnham will pursue renationalization and spending that markets won’t finance, calls Brussels leadership undemocratic elites akin to Warsaw Pact rulers (citing the Berlaymont air-conditioning anecdote), claims Ukraine’s government is corrupt and consumes ~$10 billion a month funded partly by frozen Russian assets, and says the UK is sliding down the wrong side of the Laffer curve toward a hyperinflationary slump.
Rubino argues that gold and silver dealers are currently overcharging due to stranded high-priced inventory after the metals’ correction — with silver Eagle premiums running $8–10 over spot — so stackers should temporarily shift dollar-cost averaging into physical ETFs or senior miner ETFs until premiums normalize. He sees mining stocks as historically attractive after 30–40% corrections in GDX, GDXJ, SIL, and SILJ, with majors generating record cash flow, big names as potential doubles, and quality juniors and explorers offering 3–10x upside. He also flags the yen carry trade as a multi-trillion-dollar systemic risk as the US-Japan 10-year spread compresses to 1.76 percentage points, noting CNBC mysteriously removed its Japanese 10-year ticker while Japan pays 3–4% on debt at 250% of GDP.
Pause physical stacking due to dealer premiums: Rubino explains dealers bought heavily from the public near the highs, got stranded with expensive inventory as prices fell, and widened spreads — so buyers now face $8–10 premiums on silver Eagles, making physical ETFs or mining ETFs the better vehicle for continued dollar-cost averaging.
Mining stock opportunity after 35–40% corrections: GDX is down ~35%, GDXJ ~37%, SIL ~33%, and SILJ up to 40% from highs, yet miners have posted three straight quarters of record free cash flow funding dividends, buybacks, and acquisitions — Rubino sees doubles among majors and 3–10 baggers in quality juniors and explorers, with Newmont’s July 23rd earnings kicking off Q2 reports.
Yen carry trade and the vanished CNBC ticker: The US-Japan 10-year spread has compressed from 4% in 2023 to 1.76 points, making legacy carry trades unprofitable and unrollable, risking blowups that could trigger a “big short” of US stocks — while CNBC’s removal of the Japanese 10-year yield ticker would be “blatant market manipulation” if intentional.
Fed under Kevin Warsh and the oil variable: New Fed chair Warsh flagged inflation above 4% as too elevated, but Rubino argues oil’s retreat to $68 (filling the Iran-war gap) could pull inflation back toward 3%, and the Fed can’t hike much anyway because rising rates turbocharge parabolic growth in US interest expense — a 4.5% 10-year risks a crash forcing dramatic cuts.
Seasonality and support levels: July is historically the seasonal bottom for silver due to Asian wedding-driven jewelry demand cycles, and Rubino sees massive support at $50 silver and $3,500–4,000 gold, though he warns a full US invasion of Iran spiking oil to $150 could still hammer miners — so accumulate steadily rather than time the market.
After bottoming early this year, the US dollar has been on a tear.
That has created a lot of pain for many countries around the world, as many imports priced in dollars have risen in response to the Iran war oil shock AND the increase in the dollar. It has been a double-whammy for them. A triple-whammy actually, when you take into accounts the cost of servicing any dollar-denominated debts.
And this could get worse as the Fourth Turning plays out, warns macro analyst George Gammon. Should the dollar strengthen further, it will be a wrecking ball for much of the current system.
Rickards maintains his $10,000 gold target for late 2026/early 2027 despite the correction from a $5,355 January peak to around $4,000, arguing the selloff was driven by a global dollar shortage — countries selling gold for dollars to buy oil during the Iran/Persian Gulf double blockade — amplified by stop-losses and momentum traders, with fractal math and Jim Rogers’ 50% drawdown rule suggesting $3,600 as a possible floor and excellent entry point. He argues central banks are stacking physical gold primarily because the US and Europe’s freezing and attempted seizure of Russia’s $300 billion in Treasury assets destroyed trust in dollar assets as geopolitically safe. He warns the next financial crisis could exceed 2008 because four or five bubbles — private credit, the dollar shortage, an AI bubble, and two wars — are converging while the Fed has already exhausted its biggest tools by guaranteeing all bank deposits and all bank-held Treasuries at par in 2023.
$10,000 gold intact with $3,600 possible first: Rickards cites unchanged fundamentals (central bank buying, flat mine output, Persian Gulf and Ukraine uncertainty, inflation) and applies Jim Rogers’ rule that nothing goes to the moon without a 50% drawdown — the same math that called the 2015 low of $1,050 within $20 now points to ~$3,600 as a non-shocking floor before the next leg up.
The dollar-shortage mechanism behind gold’s fall: The Iran war’s double blockade (Iran tolling the Straits, the US Navy interdicting outside) cut off 20% of world oil and LNG plus critical sulfur, helium, and nitrates, forcing countries like Turkey, Russia, and China to sell liquid gold for dollars to buy $110 oil — selling that fed on itself through stop-losses and trend-following CTAs.
Gold surpassing Treasuries as reserve asset: Rickards clarifies gold overtook US dollar assets in global reserves mainly because its price nearly tripled, not from massive new buying — but the deeper driver of accumulation is the US/Europe freezing and scheming to seize Russia’s $300 billion in Treasuries (mostly custodied at Euroclear), teaching Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, and others that physical bullion in domestic vaults is the only asset America can’t steal.
A crisis bigger than the Fed: Drawing on personal roles in the LTCM bailout and 2008, Rickards argues each bailout has grown larger, culminating in 2023’s Silicon Valley Bank rescue where the FDIC guaranteed all deposits and the Fed took underwater Treasuries (worth ~70 cents) at par — leaving no bigger rabbits to pull from the hat as private credit gates go up (investors requesting $500 million getting 5% back) and five simultaneous stress points converge into “the mother of all financial crises.”
Portfolio construction: Rickards recommends 10% gold, 30% cash for its embedded optionality to go bargain shopping in a collapse, income-producing real estate and farmland, and Treasury notes ahead of rates falling to 1–2% — while exiting AI, hyperscalers, and software in favor of defense, healthcare (driven by 80 million aging boomers), energy, and natural resources.
Vermeulen sees gold clinging to support around $4,000–4,100 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) after Fed chair Warsh’s hawkishness trimmed ~10% off gold and nearly 20% off silver in a week, and expects one more violent, news-driven flush to roughly $3,600 that could last only minutes to hours before a sharp rebound — a level he’s waiting to buy aggressively. He projects silver could spike down to ~$40 on margin calls before bouncing back into the $60 range, while Bitcoin is in a confirmed bear market pointing to ~$45,000. Longer term, he argues a gold bottom at these levels targets $8,100–8,500, and while the QQQ could still deliver a 20% euphoric AI/small-cap rally toward $879 if it breaks out, he’s liquidated his index positions amid choppy signals and warns against shorting an underlying bull market.
Gold’s $3,600 washout scenario: Gold is flirting with the 61.8% Fib level around $4,100, and Vermeulen expects a high-momentum slide to the 100% measured move at $3,600 within weeks — likely a margin-call-driven spike low with a huge lower wick and quick rebound, which he told subscribers to be ready to buy.
Silver’s violent dip to $40: Silver, platinum, and palladium share bearish patterns breaking down from support near $54, with Fibonacci pointing to a sharp drop to ~$40 that may only last minutes or hours before rebounding into the $60s — a “back the truck up” moment he loves for its volatility.
Long-term gold target of $8,100–8,500: Using the weekly chart measured from the 2014–2015 lows, Vermeulen projects gold roughly doubling from current levels, noting a dip to $3,600 actually adds about 30% more upside potential to the eventual move.
Bitcoin in a bear market toward $45,000: With the 150-day and all major moving averages sloping down, Bitcoin (down from ~$120,000 to ~$55,000) is bouncing between Fibonacci levels and pointing to a further 20%+ haircut to ~$45,000, having decoupled from the NASDAQ with “no love” in the space as money rotates to DRAM ETFs and Micron.
Stock market at a decision point: The QQQ shows heavy distribution selling at opens and closes met by relentless dip-buying, with a potential 20% breakout rally to ~$879 if new highs come, or a 7–10% pullback to the 650–675 zone if support breaks — Vermeulen has liquidated his S&P and QQQ positions amid mixed signals but stresses this remains a bull market where shorting pullbacks wastes time and energy.
Rule says that with pervasive skepticism now surrounding precious metals — gold near $4,000 and silver near $60 after corrections of roughly 30% and 50% — he’s a buyer again, having sold 25% of his junior resource portfolio in October and 80% of his physical silver in January because hyperbolic up-moves almost always resolve to the downside. He argues the “easy money” made when commodities go from hated to loved is gone, but the “sure money” lies ahead in copper and oil/gas over 5–10 year timeframes, since the world will consume as much copper as has been mined in recorded history over the next 20–30 years while supply can’t respond for nearly two decades. He also contends the US political class will capitulate on interest rates as it did in 1975 — with interest on a soon-to-be $40 trillion debt exceeding Medicare spending — triggering rate suppression, QE, and a dramatic gold response.
Selling into hyperbole, buying into skepticism: Rule sold 25% of his junior portfolio in October (recouping five years of invested capital) and 80% of his physical silver in January after it tripled instead of his expected double, and now views lower prices as good news for anyone holding the long-term thesis.
The 1975 rate capitulation replay: With a $2.5 trillion deficit ($7.5 trillion spent against $5 trillion collected), debt interest surpassing Medicare, and higher rates crushing bonds, stocks, real estate, and auto sales, Rule argues the political class will lose its nerve just as in 1975 — signaling savers that Washington cares more about short-term politics than the dollar franchise and setting gold “off on a romp.”
Copper’s structural deficit and the $250 billion problem: A Metals Week paper found the 10 biggest copper miners need $250 billion over 10 years just to maintain production — money they don’t have, in constant dollars while input costs compound 8–10% annually (making it ~$370 billion), without addressing the existing deficit or demand growth of 1.5–4.5% compounded.
18-year supply lag and portfolio construction: Grassroots copper exploration takes roughly 18 years to impact supply (a decade to discover, 2–3 years to drill out, 2–3 to permit and finance, 2 to build), so Rule recommends super-major copper producers held for 10 years for most investors, takeover candidates and high-quality developers for those willing to work, and extremely volatile explorers only for those who can stomach 10–15% daily swings.
Platinum’s inelastic demand and political supply risk: Autocatalyst loading costs only ~$150 per $60–70,000 vehicle, so a doubling of platinum wouldn’t dent car prices, while supply is concentrated in socially unstable South Africa (where ANC ownership disputes deter capital investment and trap workers in a wage conundrum), Russia (starving mines of sustaining capital for the Ukraine war), and Zimbabwe — with one theory attributing the price run-up to the end of Russian dishoarding.
Casey contrasts the 250th anniversary of independence with the patriotic 1976 bicentennial he experienced in Washington DC, arguing America has since added 120 million people, bifurcated from a middle-class society into rich and poor, replaced “wrench turners” with paper shufflers, and splintered into hyphenated tribes with worse race relations — with computerization and radically changed demographics the two biggest shifts in 50 years. He calls Trump a man with “no philosophical center” who broke up the log jam but replaced it with nothing, practicing Mussolini-style state capitalism through government ownership of shares in roughly 10 commercial companies. Addressing subscriber questions, he dismisses the departure of newsletter co-writer Lau Vegys as inconsequential, warns the US government is “a colossus capable of almost any stupidity” regarding foreign accounts and the Sprott uranium trust, and criticizes Argentine President Milei’s Zionist alignment as imposing personal preferences on a nation.
1976 vs. 2026 America: The population grew 120 million to ~340 million (equivalent to 120 cities of a million people), patriotism and optimism have collapsed, the middle class has bifurcated, and Casey notes the New York Times’ bicentennial retrospective showed no Black Americans despite the ~13% population share being unchanged — while both men agree race relations were genuinely better then.
Newsletter transition addressed: Responding to Lau Vegys’s claim that all research and recommendations were his, Casey and Smith state the April and May picks came from a collaborative process not involving Vegys, that his weakness was the stock side (he may never have opened a brokerage account), and that replacement John Hunt — an MD with patents, geology background, and active speculation experience — is an upgrade.
State power has no upper limit: On foreign bank accounts under capital controls and whether Trump could force the Sprott uranium trust (Canadian-listed, with uranium stored in the US, Canada, and France) to sell its yellowcake, Casey argues the government can pass any law it wants, noting US ownership stakes in ~10 companies follows Mussolini’s model of melding state and corporate interests.
Victim-compensation justice and family-decided abortion: Casey opposes the death penalty as “unintelligent” because criminals should instead work off jury-assessed damages paid to victims above incarceration costs — with Smith suggesting organ sale for those who can’t pay — and says abortion decisions belong to the family alone, invoking the Roman paterfamilias leaving infants on hillsides.
Milei’s “mixed bag” and Cuba’s collapse: Casey calls Milei’s alignment with Israel, NATO ambitions, mass Jewish immigration invitation, and alleged tolerance of Israeli land-burning (with repeal of the 20-year burnt-land sale ban) “insane” impositions that will besmirch anarcho-capitalism’s ideals — alongside failures like keeping the central bank and shipping gold to England — while predicting Cuba’s imminent economic collapse will create opportunities scooped up almost entirely by Spanish-speaking Cuban-Americans with inside connections.
Yergin explains that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most important choke point carrying over 20% of world oil and LNG plus a third of traded fertilizer, aluminum, and helium — proved less catastrophic than decades of nightmare scenarios predicted because Saudi pipelines built during the Iran-Iraq tanker war, America’s transformation into the world’s largest producer, IEA strategic stock releases, Asian demand rationing, and above all China’s enormous oil reserves absorbed the shock. He argues the US-Iran memorandum of understanding is deliberately ambiguous, with Iran establishing a Persian Gulf Strait Authority and insurance company to effectively convert Hormuz into an Iranian canal extracting “environmental” and navigation fees while claiming regional security will now center on Iran — a regime he stresses is ideological first, having killed a cited 40,000 protesters this year. He concludes that Gulf states will build their own defense capabilities (with Zelensky helping develop their drone programs), everyone will stockpile inventories, and the era of “easy globalization” is over.
Why the closure didn’t produce $200 oil: The pain concentrated in Asia (destination of 80% of Hormuz oil, 90% of its gas), while Saudi bypass pipelines, US exports of gasoline and jet fuel, IEA coordinated stock releases, gasoline rationing in some Asian countries, and China slashing imports by drawing down massive reserves prevented the feared price spiral — though President Trump himself warned of depression-level “bedlam” by end of July had a deal not been reached as US inventories drained.
Iran’s canal strategy: The MOU suspends tolls for only a 60-day period with ambiguous comma placement, and Iran — which recently fired on a ship hugging the Omani coast among the 1,000+ vessels trapped in the Gulf — has created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and Persian Gulf Insurance Company to monetize and politically leverage the strait, claims all Arab Gulf states completely reject.
China’s lessons and leapfrog acceleration: China fortified South China Sea islands partly because US submarines strangled Japan’s oil in WWII, built the world’s largest oil storage, produces ~90% of global solar panels, and dominates batteries and EVs (one in four new cars sold globally last year was an EV, mostly Chinese) — with the crisis serving as an advertisement accelerating its export push into the global south.
OPEC fragmentation: The UAE’s mid-crisis exit makes it the third member lost in seven years, Iraq threatens to leave over production quotas, and with Iran free to export maximally and Saudi Arabia refusing to cut so others can gain, the market could swing from tight to oversupplied — removing the stabilizer that has damped price volatility.
American resolve and Gulf recalibration: With the US now the world’s largest producer rather than importer, Gulf states that absorbed nearly 3,000 missiles and drones (in the UAE’s case) no longer trust American commitments, so they’re building sovereign capabilities, exporting trillion-dollar-plus sovereign wealth funds’ capital, and deciding whether to accommodate or resist an Iran that Yergin insists is first and foremost an ideological movement whose anti-Americanism won’t fade.
Krainer argues that Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russia — timed to the Operation Barbarossa anniversary — have no strategic rationale and are calculated provocations designed to goad Russia into retaliating against European sponsors like Germany and the UK, giving deeply unpopular ruling establishments a “barbarians at the gate” external enemy to divert domestic anger, particularly in a Britain he says faces potential civil war after the Rupert Lowe report documented at least 250,000 girls gang-raped since 1955 with establishment complicity from street police to the prime minister and royal family. He contends Putin’s restraint is deliberate strategy rather than weakness, since retaliation would rescue collapsing leaders like Merz, Macron, and Labour and trigger a World War-style united-Europe-against-Russia psychosis, while Russia’s shift in rhetoric from “Donbas” to “Novorossiya” signals coming annexation of everything east of the Dnieper, possibly including Kyiv. He further claims the 2014 Donbas war was a bankers’ war — the IMF, a “cutout of the global banking cartel,” conditioned post-coup loans on Kyiv seizing the Donbas by force because it held roughly 80% of Ukraine’s GDP in coal, gas, and steel that bankers wanted as loan collateral — and that Trump’s February 28th attack on Iran revealed the “neocolonialist faction” has captured US policy.
Provocations to trigger Russian retaliation: Krainer says the late-June strikes into Russia terrorize civilians without changing the battlefield, aiming to provoke Russian attacks on the European countries providing targeting, satellite communications, and personnel — primarily Germany and the UK, plus Estonia, Poland, and Romania — while incidents like British special forces seizing a Russian tanker in the English Channel the day before the grooming-gangs report show desperation for a casus belli.
Deliberate slaughter as elite strategy: Citing WWI General Sir Douglas Haig, who Krainer says was responsible for roughly 2 million British deaths despite having studied machine guns at the military academy and used them with Churchill in Africa, he argues history’s “incompetent generals” narrative masks intentional culling of military-aged men who pose the greatest threat to ruling-class power.
Yugoslavia’s phase transition as warning: Drawing on his experience at 21 when war broke out in 1991, Krainer describes how societies flip from “war is unthinkable” to war psychosis almost overnight once missiles fly — Serbs and Croats who shared language and intermarried families turned on each other within days — but insists Europe is not yet near that transition, and a Russian strike on Germany, the UK, France, or Poland is what could trigger it.
The Donbas as a bankers’ war: Krainer claims the IMF nickel-and-dimed Yanukovych (who won ~90% of the Donbas vote) while Putin offered $15 billion with no strings, then after the February 2014 coup became generous on condition Kyiv retake the Donbas by force — since the region’s coal, gas, and steel could collateralize hundreds of billions in loans — with the anti-terror operation green-lit by CIA director John Brennan amid visits from Nuland, McCain, Biden, and Carl Bildt’s seven trips.
Trump’s Iran attack as the neocolonialist pivot: Krainer believed the administration’s multipolar rhetoric — the Davos “globalization is finished” message, Jamieson Greer invoking Hamilton and Lincoln, Trump’s “fight against the global financier class” — until the February 28th attack on Iran signaled re-embraced hegemony, suggesting outreach to Russia was an insincere ploy to split it from China and neutralize it before the Iran confrontation, with a RUSI paper having already designated Bosnia as the planned “second front” against Russia via a NATO Article 5 trigger.
SATIRE
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