Moriarty argues the US is “committing financial suicide” by illegally selling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve below market to manipulate oil prices down, and with the Strait of Hormuz crisis he flatly states he doesn’t believe the US can survive, warning that energy production and population track each other so a 13% drop in energy means a 13% drop in population. He claims Israel started the war 40 years in the making to dominate the Middle East, that Iran “won the war in the first 30 minutes,” and that Trump has been blackmailed via the Epstein files (in which Trump is mentioned 38,000 times) into a war against US self-interest, predicting no ceasefire and “almost certainly” an attack over the weekend. He forecasts global famine, a cascade of simultaneous crises (Japanese and US bond markets, private credit, commercial real estate, the AI bubble), the dollar’s debt being inflated away toward a “$100 trillion note,” and a worldwide revolution echoing 1789 France, where aristocrats fell from 35,000 to 3,500.
SPR depletion and oil manipulation: Moriarty cites an Exxon senior VP calling it “catastrophic” that the US is selling reserves below market illegally to suppress prices, warning this makes the eventual shock worse because people keep consuming oil that isn’t being replenished. He frames the Strait closure timeline as crisis by June, catastrophe by September, and “the end of the world’s economy” if closed through December.
Israel-Iran war and Epstein blackmail: He argues Israel dragged the US into a war Iran never wanted, intending to turn Iran (92 million people) into a failed state as it allegedly did to Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, Libya, Somalia, and Sudan. His stated “opinion” is that Trump complies only because Netanyahu holds the Epstein files over him.
Iran’s leverage and the Strait: Moriarty says Iran needs no nuclear weapon because controlling the Strait of Hormuz is more powerful, and that cutting oil flow by 40-50% could end the global economy. He warns Iran will strike Gulf infrastructure and NATO bases in Greece, Romania, and Germany if its own infrastructure is attacked.
Multiple simultaneous financial crises: He lists the Japanese bond market blowup, the unwinding yen carry trade, the US bond market “blowing up,” a burst private credit bubble, and commercial real estate, with China, Japan, Philippines, and Thailand selling US bonds. He calls the AI bubble a top-heavy market (70-80% concentration) and names a future SpaceX IPO as the likely “pin” to pop it.
Dollar Collapse and prepping: Citing Martin Armstrong, he says the US won’t default but will inflate the debt away, making a $100 trillion note plausible, and that 100% of fiat currencies have failed. He urges storing food given $25 steaks and coming farm-input-driven famine, concluding your “brains” are your single most valuable asset.
Dowd argues the S&P 500 is in an AI-driven “blowoff top,” with the Magnificent 7 at roughly 37-38% of market cap, AI and AI-adjacent names at 45%, semiconductors ~18% of the S&P and ~30% of the NASDAQ, and the SOX up 64% in five to six weeks, drawing a 91% correlation to 2007. He believes headline inflation will accelerate from the oil shock but core inflation and demand will collapse in the second half of the year, producing margin squeezes and massive layoffs, and that the 10-year yield (4.56%) is near a top despite consensus calling for rates to explode. He sees China in the acute phase of its crisis (construction spending down 8%, fixed-investment growth below zero for the first time in its history), recommends large cash holdings citing Warren Buffett’s 40%, and expects capital to eventually rotate out of tech into power-grid and commodity infrastructure.
Market concentration and blowoff top: Dowd flags Nvidia at a ~$5.4 trillion market cap—larger than the entire healthcare sector—up 1,200% over five years but with annual gains stepping down (245% in 2023, 178% in 2024, 34% in 2025, 14% so far in 2026). He compares the “circular” vendor financing to Lucent, Nortel, and Cisco, saying only Nvidia is actually making cash.
China’s economic crisis: He says China is in “real deep doodoo” as real-estate problems finally hit construction and exports falter under tariffs, with the iShares MSCI China ETF down 10% on the year. He notes fixed-investment year-over-year growth went below zero in Q4 for the first time in the data series.
Inflation, rates, and the Fed: Dowd argues oil shocks are cost-push inflation that can’t be passed to consumers, so “the end of inflation is inflation itself,” and predicts the long end will reprice lower once demand destruction shows up. He expects the Fed to hold at the June FOMC and says raising would be a mistake.
AI hype cycle versus reality: He likens AI to railroads and the dotcom buildout—real technology whose true benefits arrive in 5-10 years after the speculative overbuild wipes out early investors. He cites Starbucks scrapping an AI inventory system and a Pizza Hut franchisee with ~111 stores suing over an AI system that made deliveries 50% slower.
Positioning and the midterms: Dowd recommends large cash allocations and getting “more involved” on a 30-50% pullback, saying forward 10-year S&P returns are 0% including dividends at these valuations. He thinks Trump is racing to close an Iran deal before the midterms, that a deal is already priced in as a “sell the news” event, and that a split government could ironically hurt markets given fiscal dominance.
The precious metals are still struggling to find secure footing in the wake of their sell-off from record highs earlier this year.
How low will gold & silver prices go before they do?
Michael Oliver is calling for a new price reality in the silver market, and he thinks the metal is on the verge of breaking out and going on a rampage into the $300 to $500 range before the end of the year. Michael dives into his thesis and explains why silver mining stocks could be the biggest beneficiary of this epic repricing event.
The speaker argues that high-quality US Treasury bonds (e.g., TLT) are the ultimate safe haven in the coming crash—as they were in 2008—because only the US and a handful of governments can print money to avoid default, whereas gold has now “bubbled more than anything” after tripling in three years and is overvalued. He claims all financial assets sit two to three times higher than a natural boom would justify, predicts a reset/crash that will deliver the “buy opportunity of a lifetime” like 1932 and 1982, and warns baby boomers will never see new stock-market highs before they die. He is bearish on China (the world’s biggest real-estate bubble, ~22% of homes empty, demographics aging as fast as Japan, population shrinking from 1.4 billion toward 780 million) and bullish on India (growing toward 1.7 billion, resembling China in the early 1980s), while asserting that free-market capitalism plus democracy was the single biggest innovation in modern history and that lobbying should be outlawed.
Treasury bonds as the only safe haven: He says quality government bonds rise in crises because the US can always print to avoid default, unlike even AAA corporations, so money flees to “the biggest country in the world.” He frames the US as “the best house in the developed world’s bad neighborhood.”
Gold overvalued and the asset reset: After tripling in three years, gold is now a bubble in his view, and government stoking of financial assets has just made “the rich get richer.” He argues everything must reset because the boom should have ended around 2007 and headed down for a decade and a half.
China’s real-estate bubble and demographics: He calls China “dead,” citing 20% down payments meaning a 20% price drop wipes out 100% of equity, ~22% empty homes and offices, and incomes a fifth of America’s. He says the Communist Party “should be annihilated” for engineering the greatest real-estate bubble in history.
India as the next growth story: He says India is “unquestionably the next big thing,” set to grow to 1.7 billion over 50 years while China shrinks to 780 million, with room to urbanize from ~67% toward 80%. He compares it directly to China’s 1980s liftoff.
Free markets versus government intervention: He argues free-market capitalism is self-regulating and that government officials “wanting to look good today” make the wrong calls, blaming both Chinese/Russian central control and US lobbying (“our kill”) for perverting the economy. He cites Mises’s “Liberty and Property” and calls the marriage of capitalism and democracy the biggest breakthrough in history.
Hosted by Soar Financial Partners, Deutsche Goldmesse is Germany’s premier mining investment conference with industry-leading keynote speakers and up to 40 carefully considered companies in a range of commodities and stages from explorers to producers.
Jeftovic argues that Palantir’s 22-point “manifesto” (over 35 million views) shocked people only because it openly stated what had been quietly developing for years, and that visceral, widely hated companies—Palantir, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and now Flock Safety—tend to outperform the market and sit furthest ahead on inevitable trends like mass surveillance. He contends the future is not a panopticon (the few watching the many) but a synopticon (everyone watching everyone), that the public “gave them permission” through pandemic compliance, and that under “fourth turning” dynamics old institutions like unions and churches have become oppositional to the individual. He promotes self-sovereign/decentralized digital ID, predicts privacy becoming a premium product in a “great bifurcation” that is both financial and cognitive, warns of a gamified CBDC/UBI social-credit system (“monetary apartheid”), and says liberty can only be won one person at a time through new tribes like his ready.ca network.
Palantir manifesto and hated companies outperforming: Jeftovic says the backlash came mostly from people who never read the book or the 22 points, which he found “pragmatically true,” and notes Palantir 10x’d from under $20 a share while he hesitated over its 100x earnings. He sees the same backlash now forming around Flock Safety.
Panopticon versus synopticon: Drawing on a 1980s sci-fi story “I See You,” he argues surveillance is becoming bidirectional—citing a Toronto open-data developer cutting a water-main report from six weeks to three hours, plus Nancy Pelosi stock trackers—so “everybody is watching everybody now,” which he calls inevitable rather than desirable.
Pandemic compliance and institutional collapse: He says the catastrophic mismanagement of the pandemic should have triggered a backlash but instead boomers “memory-holed it and doubled down,” proving to the “parasite class” that the public will accept surveillance, censorship, and behavioral modification. He frames the lab-leak reversal as evidence that only the first message ever lands.
Self-sovereign ID, local LLMs, and cognitive exoskeletons: He champions decentralized identity (a bouncer scanning a QR code that only reveals “over 19”) as solving the “double-spend” problem cryptos cracked 15 years ago, and predicts local LLMs months away that can be baked to serve the user’s interests, plus AI “cognitive exoskeletons” to filter the roughly 110-bits-per-second human bottleneck.
Great bifurcation, monetary apartheid, and tribes: His “don’t be poor” sound bite frames a financial and cognitive split where free human knowledge offers escape but ~95% are unaware of it, and he forecasts gamified social-credit points (e.g., “10,000 bonus points for euthanizing your dog”). He argues new institutions will form as tribes (Sicilian mafia as his analogy) and plugs ready.ca, easynode.ai/EasyClaw, and the rebranding of his newsletter to Sovereign Capitalist.
The narrator argues corporate HR departments are dying and deserve to, holding up startup Bolt firing its entire HR department—which it said “created problems that didn’t exist”—and Elon Musk gutting Twitter’s HR as proof that “less is more.” He frames HR as an $88 billion “tapeworm” driving up to $3 trillion in lost output (about $10,000 in lost wages per worker) and cites research claiming diversity training reduces women and minorities in management (a study of 829 firms), has zero impact on bias while strongly reducing trust, costs $64 billion a year in diversity-hire turnover, and produces a one-third productivity drop per the Council of Economic Advisers. He concludes that ESG-implementing companies underperform by 50-75% (a Kiplinger sample showing 4.3% returns versus 16% for the S&P 500) and that every corporation is “one shareholder lawsuit away” from flushing the HR “parasite,” given boards’ legal duty to maximize shareholder returns.
Bolt and Musk firing HR: Bolt’s founder returned, fired a third of the company, and replaced HR with a lean “people ops” limited to benefits and payroll after the company crashed from an $11 billion valuation to $300 million (97% off). The narrator credits the move with instantly flipping the culture back to “mission-driven startup roots.”
HR as an $88 billion cost: He brands corporate HR an “$88 billion tapeworm” responsible for administrative bloat costing up to $3 trillion in lost output, roughly $10,000 per worker. He casts HR as a “shadow management” layer that undermines actual managers.
Diversity-training studies: He cites a study of 829 firms finding diversity training reduces women and minorities in management, another finding zero bias impact but reduced trust and “walking on eggshells,” and $64 billion a year in diversity-hire turnover. He claims most positive training effects fade within 24 hours.
ESG underperformance: He says ESG companies underperform by 50-75%, pointing to a Kiplinger sample of 4.3% stock returns versus 16% for the S&P 500, equivalent to “lighting half to three-quarters of the company on fire.” He ties this to programs that allegedly make workforces less diverse.
Shareholder lawsuits as the trigger: He predicts diversity experts “making $200K a year to police pronouns” will fight back with lawsuits, but argues boards’ legal duty to maximize returns makes HR’s elimination inevitable. So far, he notes, only 97%-crashed companies or Musk-style takeovers have acted.
Schiff argues the bond market is flashing a warning equity traders are ignoring—the 30-year Treasury above 5% (a near post-2007 high), the 10-year near 450—and that the US faces a sovereign-debt and dollar crisis before Trump’s term ends, with national debt at $39.3 trillion heading to $50 trillion as the Fed returns to QE. He insists real interest rates are falling because inflation is accelerating faster than yields, predicts double-digit inflation in the back half of Trump’s term (worse than under Biden), and says there is “no soft landing”—only hyperinflation or depression. He is aggressively bullish on gold (around $4,500, driven almost entirely by central-bank buying while ETF investors were net sellers in 2024-2025) and silver (which topped $125 after his February interview before consolidating in the 70s, having blown through $50 Hunt-brothers resistance), dismisses Bitcoin as a Ponzi that neither stores value nor works as exchange while his tokenized-gold project tGold does both, and recommends heavy allocation to mining stocks and juniors plus treating gold as cash rather than as a stock.
Bond market warning and sovereign debt crisis: Schiff says the US is “getting off cheap” borrowing 30-year money at just 5% given $39.3 trillion in debt heading to $40 trillion within months and $50 trillion by term’s end. He expects a sovereign-debt and dollar crisis as the Fed monetizes debt the rest of the world won’t finance.
Real rates, inflation, and no soft landing: He argues nominal rates are irrelevant and real rates are falling as inflation outpaces yields, forecasting inflation possibly into double digits late in Trump’s term and citing consumer 10-year expectations of ~4%. He frames the only two exits as hyperinflation or depression, invoking Hank Paulson’s “break the glass” resignation to crisis.
Gold and central-bank buying: Schiff attributes gold’s run from $2,000 past $5,000 almost entirely to central banks losing confidence in the dollar, Fed, and Treasury, while retail and ETF investors were selling. He expects retail and institutions (shifting from the 60/40 toward Morgan Stanley’s 60/20/20) to become major buyers next.
Silver breakout and mining stocks: He notes silver topped $125 after February, never fell back near the $50 Hunt-brothers resistance it blew through “like a hot knife through butter,” and is consolidating in the 70s before a bigger move. He says juniors and miners are still cheaper than at the 2011 peak (when gold was $2,000) and could rise 5-20x via an M&A wave even if gold stays at $4,000-$5,000.
Bitcoin versus tokenized gold and allocation: Schiff calls Bitcoin a “pyramid Ponzi” that is neither a store of value nor a good medium of exchange, contrasting it with tokenized gold (his tGold project) that does both and citing Gresham’s law to advise spending dollars while hoarding gold. He recommends at least 5-10% in physical gold/silver as “cash,” substantial mining exposure (he’s held over half his portfolio there), and acting before potential price and capital controls.
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