China has accumulated 20,000 tons of gold by 2002, with an additional 27,000 tons taken from Shanghai Gold Exchange vaults by Chinese nationals since its opening, as part of a strategy to internationalize the yuan and potentially back it with gold.
China’s gold accumulation is driven by its Marxist ideology, viewing capitalism as a stepping stone to state control, and the belief that Western fiat currencies will eventually go to zero.
The Chinese Communist Party aims to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency through substantial gold accumulation and control of the global gold market.
The US bond market is dangerously mispriced, with rising interest rates failing to offset growing credit risks, especially for foreign investors, according to Alasdair Macleod.
The volatility of US treasuries has surpassed that of gold for the first time in a long time, indicating underlying issues in the Western financial credit-based system.
False statistics and misleading headline numbers published by the US government about real credit costs and currency devaluation are misleading foreign investors.
Contrary to some beliefs, European Central Banks possess significant gold reserves, but the geopolitical situation is a major concern, with Europeans described as “headless chickens” without American leadership.
The potential imposition of authoritarian control through CBDCs is a significant worry, with Europeans potentially drifting into complete anarchy.
Major US banks would likely oppose the introduction of CBDCs, which would require Congressional approval.
The Bank of England’s white paper suggests CBDCs would take a long time to implement and would delegate direct accounts with the central bank to commercial banks.
Gold remains real money, while everything else, including government bonds and CBDCs, is simply credit or political control in disguise, emphasizing the importance of physical gold for wealth preservation.
The DXY index shows 10-year cycles in the dollar’s value, alternating between upward and downward trajectories since the 1980s.
Silver has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 10 years, with miners showing even stronger performance.
Central banks have reduced their gold holdings from 74-75% to less than 20% of their balance sheets.
Gold’s performance has decoupled from real rates, with investors selling treasuries and buying gold following the 2022 US seizure of Russian assets.
Gold is experiencing its best performance since the 1970s, with a market exceeding $20 trillion.
Silver is expected to participate significantly in the next 5-10 years due to depressed capital in the mining industry and lack of new mines.
Central banks are purchasing more gold than officially reported, with a significant delta between estimated and declared purchases.
The US Treasury is likely participating in gold purchases, with former hedge fund manager Scott Basson (now Treasury Secretary) having gold as his largest position.
Emerging markets are poised for explosive growth when the dollar and yields are capped.
Family offices, pension funds, and large institutions have minimal exposure to gold, silver, copper, miners, and resource stocks, presenting potential investment opportunities.
The “Big Beautiful Budget” is projected to increase the deficit by at least $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially raising annual deficits to $2.5 trillion in the near-term and $3 trillion within a few years.
The bill includes a $4 trillion debt ceiling increase, the largest ever, while bundling it with the budget to limit future Congressional leverage for spending cuts.
The budget includes discretionary spending hikes for the “grotesquely bloated military”, which has not passed an audit in 35 years.
Some senators propose reducing Medicaid and food stamps for able-bodied recipients, eliminating federal subsidies for student loans, and repealing Biden’s green energy handouts.
The bill is expected to worsen in the Senate, with “Senate RINOs” potentially increasing spending on Medicaid, green energy, and federal worker benefits.
Trump’s reshoring agenda is primarily driven by national security concerns, focusing on military equipment and AI development rather than consumer goods.
The implementation of tariffs and economic instability policies under Trump’s administration is creating chaos and uncertainty for businesses, potentially leading to a reduced standard of living for average Americans.
The integration of the Palantir system, a privatized spying tool, into the US database raises concerns about data centralization and the potential for a police state.
The Harvard professor scandal involving Francesca Gino highlights the need for accountability and transparency in academia, particularly in research ethics.
The Brown University scandal, where a student was sanctioned for criticizing administrative bloat (3,000 administrators for 11,500 students), underscores the need for reform in higher education.
A potential catastrophic financial collapse looms due to an overpriced stock market, a precarious bond market, and a real estate market burdened by debt.
The passage of the 19th Amendment in 1920 granted women voting rights, but the concept of democracy has evolved significantly since George Washington’s election in 1789 with only 6% of the adult population eligible to vote.
The interpretation of the commerce clause in the US Constitution led to the expansion of government power, including the creation of regulatory agencies and the Federal Reserve.
The Battle of Midway in 1942 was a pivotal moment in World War II, where Japan’s loss of four carriers and their best planes and pilots significantly altered the course of the war.
The Dunkirk evacuation in 1940, which saved 300,000 British soldiers, was crucial in preventing a potentially war-altering capture by German forces.
Great Britain has been the main instigator of the Ukraine-Russia conflict through “Project Alchemy”, a covert operation involving academic intelligence, military veterans, and Western influence to maintain Ukraine’s resistance and erode Russia’s legitimacy.
The recent attack on Russia’s nuclear bombers was allegedly planned by Ukrainian intelligence with support from British MI6 and rogue CIA elements, aiming to provoke a response that could invoke NATO’s Article 5.
British secret services are reportedly collecting missile fragments from Russian attacks in Ukraine to potentially stage a false flag operation in London, justifying Western intervention.
Central banks are secretly buying gold at rates exceeding $8 billion monthly in preparation for an anticipated economic crash.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative aims to create an alternative global economic system promoting peace, free trade, and equitable terms for all nations, challenging the Western colonial system.
The UK is allegedly escalating the Ukraine conflict to distract from internal crises, including potential civil unrest and economic collapse.
The US government is reportedly planning a transition to a new monetary system with a dual currency approach to address hyperinflation and implement capital controls.
The US opposition to “Project Ukraine” is more widespread than publicly known, with many viewing it as incompatible with US interests and primarily benefiting Britain and Europe.
The shadow banking system’s 1% allocation to gold, worth $20 trillion, could significantly impact gold prices if increased.
Building local community networks and relationships is crucial for personal preparedness in times of crisis, as authorities allegedly aim to prevent such organization.
Consumer sentiment has sharply declined for four consecutive months in 2025, driven by concerns over volatile trade policy and tariff uncertainty, particularly among high-income consumers who generate the vast majority of aggregate spending.
Historically, tanking consumer sentiment has preceded a recession within months, while rising sentiment indicates economic growth, a pattern observed since the 1950s.
Two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise, leading to a surge in job loss concerns across all income levels, with expectations of layoffs over the next five years up substantially in the last six months.
Consumers are planning to cut back spending on items with high price increases, contrasting with the pandemic period when many maintained spending due to government support and expense moratoria.
Volatile trade policy, particularly tariffs, is making it difficult for businesses to plan, which consumers recognize and are bracing for impact, expecting higher prices as a result.
In 2025, consumer sentiment has rapidly eroded across all political groups (Democrats, Republicans, Independents) and economic dimensions, with two-thirds mentioning tariffs and trade policy instability as causes for anxiety.
Stabilizing trade policy by holding tariffs steady while negotiating for months or a year could help improve consumer views, as constant changes give consumers whiplash and make them feel they can’t plan.
Market-based sentiment indicators, like the Bullish Percent, are preferred over qualitative measures for providing more reliable signals of market extremes and potential reversals.
Valuations in the US are extreme by historical standards, with forward P/E at 22-23 and reliable indicators like the CAPE ratio and market cap-to-GDP at levels seen only at the tech bubble peak and 1929.
International equities are favored over US stocks due to better valuations and stronger momentum, with relative strength indicators guiding allocation despite negative US market sentiment.
Soft sentiment data improves forecasting accuracy of economic trends but should be used alongside hard data for a complete picture, as both are needed to anticipate trends.
A potential “Wile E. Coyote moment” could occur if hard data risks materialize, potentially leading to a market correction.
Precious metals, especially gold and silver, are strong alternative assets amid fiscal concerns, with gold recently breaking out of a bullish cup and handle pattern.
Financial planning is crucial, as humans struggle with amorphous, intangible risks and often misjudge probabilities, making emotionally charged decisions that can lead to suboptimal outcomes without a reality-based assessment.
In a monetary inflation world, investors should prioritize gold, Bitcoin, and other inflation hedges over bonds due to their significant price appreciation potential.
The US has lost control of the bond market, with rising yields and term premiums driven by global factors such as increased issuance in Germany, France, and Japan, and a shift in the Bank of Japan’s policy.
Private banks are monetizing government debt by buying short-dated Treasury bills, expanding their balance sheets and causing monetary inflation, as banks prefer short-dated debt and governments increasingly rely on them for funding.
Gold and Bitcoin are rising as monetary inflation hedges, breaking from traditional correlations with real interest rates, as global liquidity imbalances and inflationary pressures persist in the US, Japan, and China.
In a capital war, owning hard assets like gold, Bitcoin, and large-cap stocks with pricing power is crucial for protection and outperformance, as global liquidity imbalances and inflationary pressures escalate.
Gold’s price has increased 11 times since 2000, matching the 10-fold increase in US debt, demonstrating its role as a monetary inflation hedge, while Bitcoin has outperformed even more.
The debt liquidity cycle indicates that if debt grows at 8-9% per annum, liquidity will also grow at that rate, driving monetary inflation and necessitating dedicated inflation hedges.
Financial crises occur when the debt liquidity ratio is high, causing refinancing issues, while bubbles form when there is too much liquidity relative to debt, as seen in historical examples like the Japan and Y2K bubbles.
China’s debt deflation and tight monetary policy have recently changed due to a weaker dollar and tariff concerns, leading to huge liquidity injections by the People’s Bank of China, with crypto demand surging as a hedge against instability.
Fiscal dominance is increasing as the US cannot rely on international buyers like China and Japan due to political tensions, with funding coming increasingly from hedge funds in financial centers like London and Cayman.
The Federal Reserve is now more concerned about inflation than economic growth, as shown by the disconnect between US GDP momentum and interest rate cut expectations, marking a significant policy shift.
The Federal Reserve has never been truly independent of political pressures, with officials appointed by the President and subject to changing political whims.
A revolving door exists between the Treasury and the Fed, with no significant socioeconomic barriers between officials.
The current administration’s relationship with Fed Chair Powell is described as “theater”, involving scapegoating and blame-shifting for economic outcomes.
During World War II, the Fed’s primary objective was to help finance the war effort by purchasing government debt with newly printed money.
The Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 established the Fed’s independence, but it was a gradual process over a decade rather than an immediate change.
The Fed’s behavior during World War I was indirect, focusing on lowering bank reserve requirements to increase liquidity.
A 1978 statistical analysis by economist Winrob found that the best indicator of monetary policy is the president’s economic objectives, not Fed independence.
After the closure of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, interest rates became a poor indicator of Fed independence or dependence.
The Eisenhower administration’s low inflation rates were not a sign of Fed independence, but rather continued dependence on the Treasury.
The appointment of William McChesney Martin as Fed chair by the Truman administration, despite being seen as a move towards independence, was actually a sign of continued Treasury influence.
Historian Jonathan Newman argues that the Fed’s independence is a myth, with the president always having the upper hand in monetary policy.
US and China are engaged in a complex economic struggle, with protectionist policies and trade wars reshaping the global order and potentially causing short-term pain for long-term national interests.
China’s economy faces significant challenges, including falling GDP, demographic issues, and a leveraged banking system over $60 trillion – more than twice the size of the entire US economy.
The US dollar’s dominance in global finance gives America significant leverage, as it can control dollar funding and swap lines, potentially cutting off China’s access to dollar liquidity crucial for servicing its $1 trillion US dollar debt.
China’s real estate, stock market, and revenue are experiencing dramatic downturns, with demographics pushing prices down and investors seeking safe havens like gold to hedge against the weak yuan.
Despite low 10-year Treasury yields of 1.5%, 96-97% of Chinese debt is owned domestically, indicating a lack of confidence in other assets and potential economic instability.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at reducing reliance on US/Europe by building new consumer bases and alliances, faces uncertainty in its effectiveness and long-term impact.
Reshoring industries in the US is seen as necessary for national security but requires addressing existing domestic problems and may cause economic disruption.
Political turnover every 2-4 years in the US may hinder long-term economic strategies, contrasting with China’s more stable political system.
Trump’s tariffs, aimed at bringing manufacturing back to the US, are attempts to address long-standing issues of inequality, low-paying jobs, and loss of purchasing power for Main Street.
Volatility spikes and trade wars can cause significant market movements, as evidenced by massive outflows from US assets in April 2025, followed by one of the biggest inflows in history in May.
Gold is considered a cornerstone of every portfolio, while US equities are viewed as best for global growth scenarios.
Governments historically blame foreigners for economic crises, an age-old strategy now employed in framing current US-China economic tensions.
Future scenarios may include limited global liquidity, potential US growth based on dollar liquidity alone, and the possibility of QE limited to US institutions, potentially leading to US growth while the rest of the world struggles.
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