Alex Newman warns that escalating conflicts involving China, Russia, and the US could trigger World War III, with disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising oil prices potentially causing major financial instability amid $40 trillion in US debt and $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities.
The CCP and Russia are positioned to wage financial warfare against the US through selling US treasuries, dumping dollars, and acquiring gold as economic retaliation, while the CCP can rapidly produce ships and missiles faster than US manufacturing capacity.
A 1962 State Department report by Lincoln Bloomfield reveals that global planners view wars, national debt, and destruction as deliberate catalysts for achieving a “revolution in world political affairs,” now termed a “polycrisis” by contemporary global elites.
The Chinese Communist Party has conducted multi-generational “people’s war” against the US including financial, economic, and biological warfare while systematically building military power to defeat America in direct conflict.
Jeffrey Epstein received tens of millions of dollars from the Rothschild dynasty through payments to his Southern Trust Company, according to US Department of Justice documents, connecting him to elite deep state power beyond intelligence agencies.
Epstein’s Southern Trust Company claimed to analyze DNA and genetics while his top scientists studied genetic engineering, evolution, and artificial intelligence, with alleged plans to seed the human race with his DNA and create designer babies aligning with World Economic Forum transhumanist goals.
Epstein’s Zorro Ranch in New Mexico, where he allegedly planned a forced breeding program and buried children’s bodies, has never been searched by law enforcement despite explosive evidence, demonstrating a two-tiered justice system with only Ghislaine Maxwell jailed.
Epstein’s connections to both Rothschilds and Rockefellers—dynasties that shaped events like the Napoleonic Wars—suggest he operated at a level above intelligence agencies with capability to influence world events through the most powerful financial networks in history.
Geopolitical tensions and supply risks are pushing oil prices higher, driving inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and making rate cuts difficult despite falling unemployment, creating conditions for stagflation where inflation rises amid economic slowdown.
In a stagflation environment, real yields on bonds turn negative as inflation outpaces bond interest rates, forcing investors toward gold and silver as stocks face falling profits and government bonds become unattractive.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports over 6 million more people not working than a year ago, with a shrinking workforce supporting a growing non-workforce, signaling recession as fewer workers produce less output in the U.S.
Dubai refineries, which export 20% of the world’s gold, face Middle East disruptions limiting air transport, resulting in higher insurance premiums and storage costs for gold owners waiting to ship their metal.
CME COMEX silver inventories are at lowest levels ever, with both registered and eligible silver dropping week after week, while silver consumption has exceeded mining for the past 4-5 years with the gap growing as supply remains price-insensitive since most silver is mined as a byproduct.
Liquid natural gas (LNG) prices have more than doubled (100%+ increase), creating major concerns for Germany and Europe, while oil is up 50%, significantly impacting European debt levels.
Governments and central banks are shifting their balance sheets from bonds to precious metals as a Plan B against unsustainable debt and currency issues, though few wealth managers and investors recognize this trend yet.
AI beneficiaries (not makers) represent exciting investment opportunities as they use AI to process more data for less cost, similar to how Automatic Data Processing leveraged computers in the 1960s.
Private credit funds including Blackstone, BlackRock, Apollo, Ares, and Blue Owl are experiencing gated redemptions up to 7% from funds sized $26B to $33B, exposing Level 3 accounting mismarks as investors rush to exit.
The $1.5-3 trillion private credit market operates opaque and unregulated with unknown loan quality and locations, creating contagion risk through interconnections with banks that lend to private credit companies.
Private credit loans lack financial covenants that traditional bank loans provide, exposing investors to higher risk while financing speculative sectors like AI and crypto.
Retail private credit products rely on secondary markets for liquidity, leaving retail investors holding the bag while institutional investors exit first.
Schiller PE analysis shows market requires S&P to fall to 17,800-20,000 (a drop of over 2/3 from current levels) to achieve 10% future returns, indicating extreme overvaluation since 1928.
Stock market shows 70% decliners to advancers despite rising indexes, indicating significant pockets of air underneath the surface with historically stretched valuations.
New Harbor Financial added S&P index put hedges at 6,500 with 15% exposure hedged due to overvaluation and indicators turning red.
Private credit crisis could trigger necessary marks in commercial real estate sector, particularly affecting regional banks with exposure to ugly commercial real estate paper on balance sheets.
Redemptions, huge markdowns, and fund failures in private credit signify companies have exhausted all options, with potential effects on counterparties creating uncertain contagion across financial sector.
Financial sector weakness serves as early warning sign of broader market issues, similar to financial stocks underperforming prior to subprime crisis in 2007.
Energy sector including oil and gas services has outperformed since late 2025, with base metals and emerging markets showing relative strength despite flat S&P 500.
Cyclical sectors like financials, retail, and homebuilders are weakening, concerning for sustained market uptrend and requiring investor caution.
PayPal trades at 8x earnings despite owning Venmo and generating $5B annual cash from operations, representing significant undervaluation.
Adobe trades at 15x earnings and may integrate AI into its creative software suite, adapting and growing with the trend rather than being disrupted.
Psychedelic stocks in biotech represent an unnoticed niche that could benefit from upcoming clinical trial results and favorable administration under RFK, with PSI ETF as potential investment vehicle.
Big eight commercial traders reduced their silver short position from 84,500 contracts (420M oz) in July 2022 to under 46,000 contracts by March 2026, marking the smallest short position since 2008 in recorded history.
Concentrated short positions in silver exceed $70 billion, with shorts facing daily margin calls of $73/oz for every $1 price rise, creating unbooked margin call losses that force aggressive covering.
In the last 3 weeks, the big four traders dropped their short position by approximately 4,500 contracts, signaling aggressive covering behavior that mirrors recent price action patterns.
COMEX experienced 51 million ounces of silver shipped out during January and February 2023 combined, with an additional 12 million ounces leaving in the first six business days of March.
Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges hold only 18 million ounces of silver inventory, the lowest levels since 2015, down from 10 times that amount previously.
A six-year long silver supply deficit persists, with increasing demand for physical metal since the LBMA blowup in October 2022 as more traders convert paper short positions to physical delivery.
Steer predicts three-digit silver prices by end of 2026, driven by the combination of concentrated short positions, ongoing supply deficits, and the inevitable moment when Mr. Market takes control from the big four and big eight traders.
If the COMEX ceased operations, silver would trade freely without the options and futures market manipulation, resulting in immediate three-digit silver prices and true price discovery across all commodities including crude oil.
CME Group, run by Terry Duffy, functions as a criminal organization protecting the big four and big eight commercial traders shorting silver, preventing circuit breakers from triggering during extreme price movements.
The SEL ETF (silver miners) barely outperforms silver despite price increases, creating a disconnect that presents opportunities for value investors with long-term time horizons willing to conduct proper due diligence on mining companies.
US interest payments on national debt are projected to exceed defense and discretionary spending combined within 8 years, creating an exponential growth pattern that signals a red light emergency for the dollar’s value and economic stability.
Central banks worldwide are shifting over 50% of their reserve assets from US Treasury bonds to gold, marking a fundamental loss of confidence in dollar-denominated assets and positioning the US on the on-ramp to hyperinflation.
US national debt has surpassed 100% of GDP (with total government debt reaching 120% of GDP), crossing what Austrian economists consider a historical point of no return that typically precedes hyperinflation scenarios.
Silver’s inelastic supply and demand creates extreme volatility potential, with analyst Michael Oliver predicting prices reaching $300-500 by summer 2023 due to dramatic price swing mechanics in constrained markets.
Long-term interest rates on 20-30 year US bonds remain difficult for central banks to control, signaling deep lack of trust in US government debt that could trigger hyperinflation if yield curve control is attempted without a gold standard.
Austrian business cycle theory demonstrates how central bank money supply increases and artificially low interest rates primarily benefit wealthy technology industry owners through rising stock prices while working class wages stagnate, creating a K-shaped economy with accelerating inequality.
Average US investors hold significantly lower gold and silver positions compared to other countries, while cryptocurrency volatility and recent market crashes are driving younger investors to diversify into precious metals as alternative stores of value.
Lowering dollar value can boost US industrial competitiveness internationally but would simultaneously trigger dramatic price inflation throughout the domestic economy, creating a double-edged sword for policymakers attempting to manage debt burdens.
Fed’s base case is “gradual print” aligned with nominal GDP or bank deposit growth, but Iran war adds variance and could accelerate balance sheet expansion if conflict escalates beyond current scope.
Fed focuses balance sheet growth on short end of curve with net duration purchases limited to 3 years or less, attempting hawkish positioning by avoiding excess duration accumulation on their balance sheet.
Fed’s primary concern is preventing disruptions in interbank lending and Treasury markets, both showing minor stress but stable, with standing facilities and swap lines ready to address liquidity issues before they become systemic.
Proposed Fed chair Jared Bernstein is dovish on interest rates but resistant to balance sheet expansion, favoring shrinking it, while potentially pushing bank deregulations allowing more treasuries without affecting leverage ratios similar to QE effects.
Fiscal dominance and sovereign debt crises historically coincide with war periods, creating investment complexity as the US enters a war and sovereign debt-crisis loop that fundamentally alters the financial landscape.
Alden expects a multipolar world where neutral reserve assets like gold and Bitcoin become larger share of global financial system, driven by non-Western central banks seeking USD alternatives amid rising power-stagnant power dynamics.
Current period characterized by elevated shocks and headlines from slow-motion sovereign debt crisis across multiple countries, with Alden expecting many crises over next 5+ years affecting asset prices but favoring precious metals performance.
Energy price spikes could impact housing affordability and market sentiment but unlikely to trigger near-term housing market collapse, as housing has remained resilient with flat to up prices in most areas despite higher rates since 2022.
Alden recommends energy stocks for potential uncorrelated returns during energy crisis, which benefits some companies while proving disastrous for most equities, bonds, and currencies in portfolio construction.
₿ Bitcoin serves as proxy for global liquidity with closer correlation to liquidity than other assets, while gold has liquidity properties but functions more as established risk-off asset in traditional portfolio allocation.
Valuation ratios like gold to oil and gold to stocks indicate gold is reasonably priced, currently in fourth bear market for stocks in modern era, with gold, silver, and platinum at lower end of historical valuation ranges compared to other assets.
Alden is bullish on both gold and Bitcoin as store of value assets, with gold as incumbent choice and Bitcoin as newer alternative, but doesn’t expect Bitcoin to demonetize gold in foreseeable future.
The Strait of Hormuz conflict has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel despite unprecedented stockpiled oil releases by international organizations attempting market stabilization.
Fertilizer prices surged hundreds of dollars in one week due to disrupted petroleum-based component trade through the Strait, threatening food shortages and famine in developing countries.
The helium supply from Qatar flowing through the Strait is critical for semiconductor manufacturing, demonstrating how complex global supply chains create unforeseen consequences across seemingly unrelated industries.
The U.S. military, designed for traditional warfare and industrial capacity, struggles against Iran’s asymmetric threats using drones and unconventional tactics in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s economic warfare strategy aims to maximize costs for the West while being relatively insulated since U.S. sanctions already economically cut them off from the global system.
Draft discussions signal lack of public support for war, as conscription represents the regime stealing citizens’ time and output when it cannot secure enough volunteers, indicating political failure.
A generational divide exists between Boomer and Gen Z Democrats and Republicans, with Gen Z largely opposed to the current war, requiring a draft to force their participation and exposing the conflict’s illegitimacy.
Lindsey Graham’s rhetoric about eagerly sending troops to foreign wars represents an outlier position among Congress members but reflects broader absurdity in conflict-related political discourse.
The Federal Reserve faces conflicting pressures to lower interest rates for war spending financing while maintaining its dual mandate of controlling inflation and maximizing employment.
The European Central Bank is reportedly considering interest rate increases to address inflation pressures, while high global debt levels could accelerate a financial crisis as investors rush to preserve assets.
Private equity firms are limiting withdrawals due to investor concerns, signaling financial industry instability coinciding with rising inflation, job losses, and mounting deficits.
The war acts as an accelerant of existing economic problems including rising inflation, job losses, and mounting deficits that were already present before the conflict began, occurring during a period of economic decline.
Palantir’s Maven Smart System fuses multiple military data feeds into a single targeting workflow that allows operators to select data types, generate courses of action to prosecute targets, and action them from one interface, with the final human approval step being the only barrier before full automation.
Anthropic faces a contradiction between opposing “evil purposes” in government use (citing its involvement in a Venezuelan operation and wanting to avoid a “Nuremberg trials” defense of “just driving the trains”) while simultaneously depending on government contracts for revenue.
Massive AI data center investments face potential obsolescence as rapid AI model advancement by the world’s smartest researchers could render infrastructure stranded, evidenced by the Stargate project’s fall and reduced Gulf country funding.
Commodity stocks historically run up during commodity price increases but have poor track records long-term, making a good operational track record a signal to sell rather than buy due to the boom-bust cycle inherent in resource markets.
Explorers and small developers with tiny market caps can double or triple from relatively small investments, while producing miners require substantially more capital to achieve comparable percentage gains.
Gold mining strategy should focus on currently producing miners or juniors fast-tracking permitting and production to avoid potential quashing of mining opportunities by new administrations given the strong political outlook for gold.
Biometric border controls are expanding globally, marking the end of travel privacy as governments increasingly deploy biometric data collection for border security, raising concerns about loss of personal freedom of movement.
Uruguay and Argentina historically performed well during wars due to neutrality and exports to fighting nations, remaining the lowest risk regions compared to other global locations for crisis-minded investors.
Nanotech stocks require rapidly changing and overwhelming technical knowledge for proper analysis, making them challenging even for bullish investors to become genuine experts in the field.
Stop losses are vulnerable to being picked off by traders, making it preferable to buy cheap and sit tight for long-term gains while taking some profits during bull markets.
The City of London as a major financial center attracts conspiracy claims about its influence on global events, though these theories typically lack concrete evidence to support the alleged scope of control.
US and Israel are bombing Iran to attrit nuclear/missile capabilities and achieve regime change, but Trump’s flexibility allows him to declare victory or exit quickly if inflation rises from increased oil prices and military costs like aircraft carriers and jets.
Iran’s institutionalized regime with 1 million armed, decentralized IRGC troops is far more resilient than previous US-targeted Arab governments, making regime change likely to trigger civil war in a country of 92 million people with ethnic fault lines.
China’s compliance with US sanctions on Iran is driven by its much bigger trade with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Gulf countries, and Israel compared to Iran, limiting Beijing’s support for Tehran despite geopolitical alignment.
Past US interventions in Iraq, Syria, and Libya caused civil wars, refugee crises, and strategic blowback, with US never successfully establishing democracy through bombing alone in the Middle East.
US regime change in Iran risks civil war sending tens of millions of refugees to neighbors, despite Iran’s 6,000-year history and nationalism, following the pattern of previous interventions.
Turkey-Saudi axis is emerging to contain Israeli dominance in the Middle East, with both countries fearing Israeli bombing of their territories as Israel becomes the new regional hegemon having bombed Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq at will.
US abandoning Syrian Kurds while arming Iranian Kurds risks rekindling Kurdish nationalism in Turkey, potentially leading to renewed independence movement in eastern Turkey, while Turkey already hosts 4 million Syrian refugees and fears new flood from Iranian civil war.
Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to US, argues destroying Iranian regime is low-hanging fruit to eliminate axis of resistance, but Iran is not a direct threat to US, suggesting US may be gifting this operation to Israel.
Kissinger’s realist balance of power view warned that destroying any military threatening Israel undermines American and regional security, contradicting current strategy of eliminating all potential challengers to Israeli hegemony.
Most plausible scenarios include Iranian civil war spilling over the region, regional realignment with Turkey and Saudi Arabia, or limited US-Israel success in degrading Iranian capabilities without achieving regime change.
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