China has covertly accumulated silver since the 1980s, leveraging its position as a major refiner and miner to suppress global silver prices and build undeclared reserves.
The People’s Bank of China established the Shanghai Gold Exchange in 2002, allowing citizens to acquire gold while a separate program secretly amassed silver reserves.
The largest credit bubble in history, accumulated since the 1980s, is breaking, with bond yields not rising and equity markets stalling as credit stops feeding into the market.
In a crisis, the Fed will prioritize defending banks over the dollar, potentially leading to a collapse in the dollar’s value and a surge in commodity prices.
The global mining industry is poised to be a worthwhile investment, with countries representing 70% of the world’s population industrializing rapidly and demanding raw materials.
To protect wealth in a crisis, it’s crucial to exit credit positions and invest in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
Interest rates and bond yields may rise to 10-20% or more as the value of credit rapidly declines in a crisis.
The end of China’s silver price suppression is expected to allow silver prices to catch up with gold as currency values continue to decline.
A leaked Ukrainian intelligence report suggests Zelensky signed a 100-year partnership agreement with UK’s Starmer in January 2021, allegedly granting the UK control over Ukraine’s ports, gas, pipelines, and titanium deposits.
Under Ukraine’s constitution, Zelensky’s extended term beyond the 5-year limit may be illegitimate, with the Speaker of the House potentially being the rightful representative.
Trump is challenging the UK’s claim to Ukrainian assets by questioning Zelensky’s legitimacy and threatening to nullify the 100-year agreement.
The agreement commits the UK to provide £3 billion annually in military support to Ukraine, with potential control over resources after hostilities cease.
Poland, with 1500 tanks, is viewed as the only credible military force west of Ukraine capable of enforcing agreements as potential occupation forces.
European “reassurance forces” in Ukraine are unlikely due to Russian opposition, potentially leading to loss of control over resources to a Russia-friendly government.
A potential global margin call on the gold market threatens LBMA and COMEX, with the US initiating a bank run against the paper gold market.
Trump’s administration prioritizes a $1.3 trillion budget cut through reconciliation before addressing other key issues.
European governments have allegedly canceled elections, cheated, or appointed governments contrary to election results, pushing pro-war candidates against public will.
The European political class, including NATO’s Rasmussen, EU’s von der Leyen, and Estonia’s Kallas, are described as corrupt and aligned with the Davos elite.
Trump aims to defang both Israel and Iran before negotiating a settlement, managing interests of Christian evangelicals and American Jews.
The US has exhausted its budgetary money for regular weapons shipments to Ukraine, forcing the use of seed corn and new weapon production.
The US dollar’s overvaluation, driven by high interest payments relative to GDP, is unsustainable and likely to weaken materially over the coming year, impacting global markets.
A monetary alignment among central banks to reduce dollar value may be necessary, benefiting emerging markets, developed economies, and natural resources like silver and mining companies.
Fiscal stimulus, averaging 8% of GDP annually post-2008, has been the biggest driver of US economic growth, and its reduction will have a significant delta impact on equity markets, growth, and valuations.
Gold’s historical role as a haven asset is gaining recognition, especially among younger investors, with a cap on US dollar strength providing a green light for gold and its derivatives.
U.S. gold reserves are at a 90-year low, while global reserves are at a 50-year high due to a buying spree since the 2008 financial crisis, with the U.S. now holding only 20% of total gold reserves.
U.S. gold miners have fat margins at nearly $3,000/oz gold price, with median all-in sustaining costs for top 50 miners at half the gold price.
Silver is expected to reach $40-45/oz in the coming months, extremely profitable for miners producing at sub-$15 costs, with potential for a major breakout beyond prior highs.
The commodities to equity ratio at a 60-year low is likely to turn significantly if the U.S. dollar weakens and yields decrease.
Crescat Capital focuses on exploration stocks, offering higher returns at the right cycle time despite being riskier and less liquid, believing most money is made in exploration when a mining cycle is triggered.
Crescat recently purchased a major silver mine, now the 3rd largest globally, with low production costs and high margins, anticipating a significant silver price increase to $30/oz.
Signs of a potential market top include Bitcoin breaking below its price range, narrow market breadth with only a few sectors outperforming, and speculative assets like Fcoin losing 90% of their value since January 19th.
Consumer sentiment is declining, with the latest University of Michigan numbers showing the biggest monthly drop in four years, consistent with recession levels historically.
Gold has broken out of a 10-year cup and handle pattern at around $2,000/oz, potentially running to $3,000/oz, while silver is coiling for a move higher, with targets of $34-38 for SLV.
Gold and silver miners have been building bases, with junior miners up 50% since early last year, potentially catching up quickly if metals continue to rise.
Emerging market bonds and midterm duration bonds were added to the portfolio, with a total of 15% in bonds including a small piece of foreign denominated and emerging market bonds, while short-term treasuries still yield above 4%.
Gold futures premium has skyrocketed to 6-7%, creating a risk-free arbitrage opportunity for banks and hedge funds to buy spot gold in London and sell futures in New York.
Delivery notices for gold futures increased by 177% in February 2025 compared to February 2024, with a record 73,400 bars delivered, indicating a large unknown buyer taking physical possession.
Central banks worldwide, including China, are increasing gold reserves to reduce US dollar exposure and enhance financial security in uncertain times.
Governments can monetize gold by revaluing it from $422 to market price ($3,000-$3,500), potentially booking an $800 billion profit to reduce budget deficits.
US inflation is gradually rising, with the CPI index increasing 0.1-0.5% monthly and commodity prices 18% higher than a year ago, suggesting continued gold price appreciation.
Contango in the futures market, where futures prices exceed spot prices due to high interest rates on 3-month treasury bills, is pulling gold prices higher.
Discovery of insufficient or fake gold in Fort Knox could trigger a loss of confidence in the US dollar, prompting foreign nations to diversify into assets like Bitcoin, property, or copper.
A potential currency reset could emerge if gold reserves are compromised, leading to a new global currency for international trade, possibly led by countries with the most gold.
Retail investors in North America haven’t yet entered the gold market despite soaring prices and shortages, while private investors in China continue buying, albeit at a slower pace.
The logistical problem of delivering 400 oz bars from London to New York has caused a short squeeze, yet gold prices continue to rise, indicating genuine increased demand.
Gold stocks are poised for significant growth due to the alignment of technical and fundamental factors, with cost pressures expected to remain mild compared to gold’s upside potential over the next 12 months.
The gold price has outpaced costs in recent quarters, creating a substantial margin of $1,400 at the 2022 low, which is highly favorable for gold producers.
Gold stocks closely follow inflation-adjusted gold prices, as evidenced by the Baron’s gold mining index mirroring the long-term trend of inflation-adjusted gold prices.
Gold is expected to strengthen against oil and commodities, with both gold-to-oil and gold-to-commodity basket ratios breaking out of three-year bases, targeting upside targets of 45 and 151 respectively.
Gold stocks are positioned for significant breakout moves over the next 12 months, with major indices like GDX, GDXJ, and GOEX forming nearly five-year long bases primed for substantial movements.
Housing market weakness, with rising inventory and declining public housing companies, could significantly impact the broader economy if it deteriorates further.
The top 10% of earners (>$250,000/year) drive most retail buying, but a stock market downturn could change this, while lower-income groups face increasing auto delinquencies and credit card debt.
Deflation periods are expected in the next 10 years, requiring investors to learn market trading strategies, especially since 39% of the industry is under 40 and may lack experience with deflation cycles.
The stock market is currently extremely overvalued, with price-to-sales and price-to-market cap ratios surpassing the 1999-2000 bubble levels.
The Federal Reserve is operating on outdated rules and has made significant errors in the past 25 years, particularly in the last 5, rendering their guidance unreliable.
A potential Mar-a-Lago Accord among the top 15 US allies to exchange US debt for non-tradable currency could dramatically alter the economic landscape by reducing debt and interest rates.
Stagflation concerns are rising, with potential similarities to the early 1980s, including a possible 16-17 month market decline following a popular president’s inauguration.
Owning gold is considered prudent in the current global uncertainty, with countries worldwide increasing their gold reserves despite potential short-term setbacks.
Institutional investors are increasingly buying large-cap gold miners like Newmont and Barrick, potentially leading to a merger and acquisition wave in the junior mining sector.
Warren Buffett’s record $300 billion cash position suggests a strategy to acquire whole companies quickly rather than partial stakes.
Stock market corrections of 20-25% are needed to trigger significant selling, as investors currently appear complacent despite warning signs.
The US gold reserves largely consist of lower quality coin gold from melted Depression-era coins, likely confiscated from private citizens following Roosevelt’s Executive Order 6102.
In 1971, the US government defaulted on its obligations to foreign governments under the Bretton Woods system, effectively stealing gold from other nations and dismissing legal claims.
The US government’s refusal to allow an honest audit of the Treasury’s gold reserves, including Fort Knox, is concerning given that no full audit has occurred in over 40 years.
Contrary to popular belief, the US gold reserves were intended to be dynamic, with gold meant to flow in and out as Americans and dollar users exchanged currency for gold.
The US gold reserves represent a legacy of deception, resulting from years of gaslighting and broken promises by the US government regarding the backing of dollars with gold.
Gold repatriation of 2,000 tons to the US signals a potential financial reset and gold’s reentry into the monetary system, indicating significant shifts in market dynamics.
The stock market is predicted to melt down within 1-2 years due to financial overpricing, economic factors, and credit bubbles, potentially causing widespread wealth loss and societal chaos.
Gold stocks are considered undervalued with low costs and high gold prices, potentially leading to a 10:1 run in the future, making them an attractive high-risk investment opportunity.
Nixon’s presidency is criticized for imposing wage and price controls, devaluing the dollar, and prolonging the Vietnam War, despite his 1972 China visit opening up relations.
Jeff Bezos’ declaration that The Washington Post will now celebrate free minds and free markets is viewed as potentially sacrilegious in Washington DC, raising questions about the newspaper’s future direction.
The release of heavily redacted Epstein files revealed nothing new, suggesting the persistence of the “swamp” in the Trump Administration despite good intentions.
Operating system level AI is expected to be released soon, offering personalized assistance but potentially compromising privacy by reporting user data to headquarters.
The Economist is criticized for its alleged communist leanings, anti-Trump stance, and negative portrayal of baby boomers as wealthy individuals corrupting their children with inherited wealth.
Argentina’s political and economic climate is discussed, highlighting the country’s ongoing challenges and potential implications for the global financial system.
The recent gold deposit discovery in China, while significant, is unlikely to impact the gold market substantially due to its deep location and high extraction costs.
The Federal Reserve aims to rebuild trust in the American financial system by potentially increasing gold prices to $80,000 or higher and reducing its balance sheet to a 5:1 or 5.5:1 ratio of dollars to gold.
A nominal GDP of $30 trillion would require a $6 trillion Fed balance sheet and a $30,000 gold price, assuming no treasury asset-backed currency backed by a sovereign wealth fund.
Tom Luongo predicts a slow steady rise in gold prices, with a 20% annual increase potentially leading to $15,000/oz in a few years, or a 40% annual increase needed for a 500% return in 10 years.
The implementation of BASEL 3 in the US will allow the government to set the cost of its own money for the first time in 250 years, potentially leading to a speculative process in the gold market.
The Fed’s actions are draining offshore dollars and making it more expensive for foreign central banks to access US dollars, part of a plan to rebuild the US economy’s pool of real savings.
Tom Luongo argues that the Bank of England is bankrupt due to Ukraine obligations and is attempting to control information flow by trying to obtain encryption keys from Apple.
GLD is expected to become the hedge for FX risk with gold, replacing COMEX, which will return to its original purpose of coordinating production and consumption in a physical delivery market.
The repatriation of assets from London to the US, driven by BASEL 3 implementation, is predicted to lead to a drain of London and a significant shift in the gold market dynamics.
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