Andy Shectman argues that China is methodically building a parallel monetary system to bypass the dollar, having added 260,000 ounces of gold in April 2026 (8.67x its prior monthly average) across 18 straight months of accumulation, while striking 24-25 yuan-settled deals with the UAE and pouring $6.1 billion into Brazil to lock up rare earths, nickel, copper, and EV infrastructure. He warns that the real threat to the US is not de-dollarization but “de-treasurization,” as Gulf Coast countries reportedly sell Treasuries to buy gold and emphasize silver, with Bank of America’s lead metals analyst calling for $309 silver by year-end and Michael Oliver projecting $300-500. He also flags a “40% bubble concentration rule” trigger (top 10 stocks = 40% of market), a 226,000 drop in household employment masked by a 391,000 birth-death model fudge, and CBO projections of $2 trillion annual deficits climbing toward $3 trillion by 2036.
China’s gold accumulation and resource lockup: China added 260,000 ounces of gold in April 2026 after 160,000 in March, marking 18 straight months of buying and the second-largest two-month addition since Q1 2024. It also deployed $6.1 billion across 20 Brazilian states to secure rare earths, nickel, copper, graphite, power grids, and EV factories, controlling over 90% of global rare earth refining.
Yuan-settled trade and Mbridge infrastructure: The UAE and China struck roughly 24-25 deals including petroleum-for-yuan and “non-oil trade at the billion yuan level,” with the UAE being one of four original Mbridge members that executed the first gold-and-oil trade on Mbridge using digital yuan. Shanghai Metals Exchange vaults are now operational in Saudi Arabia and expanding through the Belt and Road, with the Unit platform offering 40% gold backing and redeemability on demand.
COMEX silver outflows and Treasury market warnings: The May silver contract already saw 25 million ounces delivered, with another 194,000 ounces leaving COMEX vaults on a single Friday, alongside record-low open interest. Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson called for a “break the glass” plan for Treasury market collapse, while Eric Yeoman reports Gulf Coast countries are selling Treasury reserves to buy gold and silver.
Labor and deficit data manipulation: April 2026 headline payrolls showed 115,000 jobs added but the household survey showed 226,000 fewer people working, with 445,000 more part-time workers for economic reasons (totaling 4.9 million). The birth-death model added an estimated 391,000 jobs to reach the 115,000 headline, while CBO projects $2 trillion annual deficits rising to $3 trillion by 2036, pushing US debt toward 200% of GDP with $16 trillion in interest expense over the next decade.
Weekly specials and coin market dynamics: Miles Franklin is offering 1oz American Silver Eagles at $5.99 over spot (the lowest premium since 2020) and MS62 $10 Gold Liberties at $125 over melt, plus free swaps of 999 bars into pre-1965 90% junk silver. Refineries remain 12-14 weeks backordered following the CME Group’s earlier margin rate hikes around the January ETF rebalancing.
Bill Holter argues the gold and silver bull market has resumed in earnest, with silver breaking out of a three-month triangle from a $75 launchpad and the MACD turning up, setting the stage for a move that will dwarf the November-to-January rally and could push silver to $200-250 by year-end while gold outperforms is outperformed by silver at a ratio falling from 57-58 toward 25-30. He frames the entire move as a collapse in currency purchasing power rather than a rise in metals, citing CPI at 3.8% with energy accounting for 40% of the headline gain, the 10-year yield testing 4.5%, and his prediction of a “Mad Max” interval lasting two weeks to two months when credit-based fractional reserve system finally breaks. He notes a bag of pre-1965 90% silver dimes/quarters worth $1,000 face value now trades at $60,000, evidence the dollar has lost roughly 98.5% of its purchasing power in his lifetime, and warns that synthetic motor oil shortages from the offline Shell Pearl GTL facility in Qatar are the first visible artifact of the war’s supply chain breakage.
Silver breakout and price targets: Silver broke above $80 (trading as high as $87) out of a three-month triangle on the fifth touch, with the daily MACD turning up from oversold levels and the launchpad now at $75 rather than $35. Bank of America’s metals analyst is calling for $109-$320 silver this year, Michael Oliver projects $300-$500 by year-end, and Holter himself sees $200-$250 silver as plausible with gold-to-silver ratio falling from 57-58 toward 25-30.
Inflation print and yield breakout: CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year with energy contributing more than 40% of the headline gain, while the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.46% (up 5 basis points) and looks ready to break above 4.5% toward 5%. The Thomson Reuters commodity index has already broken out higher, with copper hitting all-time highs at $6.57 per pound and oil back above $101.
Supply chain breakage and motor oil shortage: ExxonMobil and Shell have informed Costco and Walmart they have no packaged motor oil product to send, with bare shelves expected within weeks because the Shell Pearl GTL facility at Ras Laffan, Qatar is completely offline. Toyota is preparing a service bulletin allowing 0W-20 in lieu of 0W-8 and 0W-16 due to the shortage of synthetic oil base stocks.
Currency collapse and the Mad Max scenario: A $1,000 face-value bag of pre-1965 90% silver coins now trades at $60,000, meaning the dollar has lost roughly 98.5% of its purchasing power since the mid-1960s, and UK interest rates have reverted to 1998 levels erasing two decades of easing. Holter explicitly predicts a two-week to two-month window where banks, the financial system, fire departments, police, and hospitals stop functioning because credit-based collateral defaults cascade through the fractional reserve system.
Mining supply constraints and AI/EV demand: Silver miners cannot get sufficient sulfuric acid to separate metal from ore, leaving piles of unprocessed ore on pads, while China imported the most silver ever in March and stopped all silver exports as of January 1, 2026. Demand is exploding from AI infrastructure (which requires silver) and new solid-state lithium EV batteries that are heavily silver-loaded, charge faster, and last longer than current chemistries.
Thomas Hoenig argues incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh inherits a near-impossible setup: the Fed’s balance sheet has grown by nearly a quarter trillion in Treasuries (net $180 billion) since December as QE quietly resumed, inflation pressures are mounting from the Iran oil shock on top of an already-stimulative tax-cut-driven “inflationary boom,” and the last FOMC meeting produced four dissents (three against keeping rate-cut bias language) signaling internal revolt. He expects Warsh and Treasury Secretary Bessant to initially collaborate on shortening the balance sheet’s duration to free up the long end, but predicts rising bond yields will eventually force rate hikes by late 2026 or 2027, with a serious “hangover” arriving in 2027-2028 as the $39 trillion gross debt heads toward $60 trillion within a decade. Hoenig wants a hard-rule Fed (no balance sheet growth above a set %, no Fed funds rate below 2%, no congressional deficits above 3% of GDP without two-thirds vote), arguing fiat currencies have never durably worked and the post-1971 system’s collapse in dollar purchasing power proves it.
Warsh’s immediate June meeting dilemma: Trump is publicly pressuring for rate cuts but the unemployment rate is 4.3%, inflation is rising, and the last FOMC had four dissents including three against retaining future rate-cut bias language. CME futures show the market now pricing in zero further 2026 cuts with a bias toward hikes by early 2027, putting Warsh on a collision course with the administration.
Stealth QE resumption: Since December, the Fed has added almost a quarter trillion dollars in Treasury holdings with net balance sheet growth of over $180 billion as roughly $70 billion in MBS roll-off was replaced by longer-duration Treasury purchases plus short-term Treasury bills. Warsh has talked about shrinking the balance sheet but Hoenig sees that as nearly impossible given the size of the national debt and current Fed behavior.
Inflationary boom into stagflation risk: The one big beautiful bill’s tax cuts, larger-than-last-year refunds, $500 billion in AI capex, strong Q1 corporate earnings, and election-year spending make a 2026 recession nearly impossible, but the Iran war adds oil-price inflation on top. Hoenig fears 2027-2028 will mirror the 1970s pattern where rising inflation plus a slowing economy traps the Fed between cutting (worsening inflation) and hiking (deepening the downturn) just as the asset bubble pops.
Debt trajectory and bipartisan glimmer: Gross debt of $39 trillion will reach roughly $60 trillion in 10 years at current $2 trillion annual deficits, but Hoenig points to a bipartisan congressional effort to cut the deficit from 6% to 3% of GDP over a decade. He cites the 1994 Clinton-Gingrich compromise that produced 4% real GDP growth as proof such consolidation works, and gives the Trump administration a “B” for deregulation and tax cuts but failing grades on debt.
Rules-based reform proposal: Hoenig wants statutory limits binding the Fed (no balance sheet growth above a set percentage, no Fed funds rate below 2% because zero-lower-bound produced inflation anyway), congressional deficits capped at 3% of GDP without a two-thirds emergency vote, and a hard-rule currency anchor — preferably gold, since “there’s never been a fiat currency that’s really worked.” He dismisses crypto as eventually manipulable and centralizing, arguing only a natural resource-based rule provides genuine external constraint.
Ryan McMaken argues that the US Constitution has become “a suicide pact” because four interlocking legal prohibitions guarantee that growing diversity of values across the country will produce escalating conflict, which can only be resolved through ever more centralized coercion from Washington DC. He frames secession and radical decentralization down to the village level (citing Mises, Charles Dunoyer, and Gustave de Molinari) as the only feasible way to prevent revolution and civil war, but notes that no meaningful change will occur without a major crisis comparable to the 1991 Soviet collapse that produced 15 new countries. He explicitly rejects the idea that elections deliver real change, arguing the ruling elite controlling trillions of dollars will never hand over power voluntarily, and that the deceptive ceremonial transfer between parties masks a single governing class entrenched on both sides.
No secession permitted: After the Civil War the principle “might makes right” was dressed up in legal window-dressing through White v. Texas, where the Supreme Court manufactured a “perpetual union” doctrine found nowhere in the constitutional text. This means California with its 50-plus congressional votes cannot be expelled and no portion of the country can leave, unlike Singapore which was thrown out of Malaysia in 1965 and now has a higher standard of living than the country that expelled it.
No state-level immigration protection: States cannot defend themselves against demographic transformation from other states because US naturalization and voting laws force immediate enfranchisement of arrivals, exemplified by 1990s Colorado where roughly 3.5-4 million residents had to absorb large numbers of California transplants who then captured city councils. The Schengen Area in Europe allows emergency border closures, but American states have no such mechanism even when sanctuary states refuse to prosecute criminals who then migrate elsewhere.
No sub-state federalism allowed: The Warren Court’s Reynolds v. Sims (1960s) abolished territorial representation in state senates, mandating “one man, one vote” and converting all 50 states into unitary governments like France where urban population centers dictate everything. Previously rural districts of a few hundred people could balance urban districts of thousands at 50-to-1 population differentials, mirroring the federal Senate’s territorial logic.
No border redrawing: While technically allowed, any border change between states like Oregon and Idaho requires approval from both state populations plus Congress, meaning a few hundred millionaires from New England and North Carolina who will never be affected get veto power. The result is that demographic realities from 150-200 years ago remain frozen forever, leaving rural Oregon ruled permanently from a distant state capital.
The 19th century French liberal foundation: Benjamin Constant, Charles Dunoyer, and others established that more diverse populations require more coercion because varying value systems produce conflict, while smaller more uniform societies can function voluntarily. Gustave de Molinari (admired by Murray Rothbard) advocated the “double right of secession” allowing both provinces to leave national states and municipalities to leave provinces, building on the American Revolution that David Armitage describes as having established the unprecedented right of secession that then influenced Europe and Latin America.
Sean Foo argues that silver’s industrial role (15g-1oz per solar panel, plus EVs, semiconductors, and military tech) is being recognized as strategic by major powers, evidenced by China importing record silver in March 2026, restricting exports starting January 1, and trading at 5-15% premiums on Shanghai versus global markets as it builds national-security stockpiles ahead of potential commodity clashes with the US. He sees the Iran war producing 12-20 million barrels/day in disrupted oil supply (~20% of global consumption), accelerating the shift to renewables, hammering Japan’s yen (which spent $20-30 billion intervening), and forcing countries like Turkey to dump gold reserves for dollars to buy energy — creating a temporary liquidity squeeze that masks gold’s eventual 6-12 month lag-effect rally. Foo views China as already ahead of the US in robotics, manufacturing, EVs, and solar, and predicts the war will backfire as China locks in Russian gas pipelines and Brazil-Argentina supply chains while the US tariff strategy collapses with $50-150 billion in tariff refunds undoing the $300-400 billion in collected receipts.
China silver ring-fencing and solar demand: China imported record silver in March 2026 per Bloomberg, designated silver a critical mineral, and stopped all exports as of January 1, while Shanghai premiums ran 5-15% above global prices. Each solar panel uses 15 grams to 1 full ounce of silver for long-term efficiency, and surging Chinese solar exports to Australia, Japan, Europe, and Africa are driving structural demand growth that didn’t exist in the 1970s Hunt Brothers era.
Iran war oil shock and yen collapse: The war has removed 12-20 million barrels/day of oil supply (roughly 20% of global consumption) for 65-66 days with no clear end, prompting Japan to spend $20-30 billion selling dollars to defend the yen because 80-90% of Japan’s energy is imported, mostly from Qatar and the Middle East. Foo expects sustained energy bills will force more reserve liquidation globally, putting tremendous downward pressure on the dollar and Treasuries.
Gold lag effect and dollar debasement: Gold typically lags major monetary shocks by 6-12 months — it stayed flat for 6-12 months after the $4-7 trillion COVID printing and after the 2022 Russia sanctions before rallying hard. Tariff income that rose from $10 billion to $30-40 billion monthly is now being refunded at $50-150 billion, while Trump baby accounts inject $1,000 per baby, debasing global dollar reserves and adding $30-50 billion in war-related deficits with potentially $100-200 billion total.
Iran stalemate and nuclear leverage: Both sides hold maximalist positions — the US wants total Iranian capitulation while Iran refuses to give up nuclear ambitions without solid guarantees backed by Russia and China, having watched what happened to Libya and Iraq after they abandoned their programs. Foo expects the war to drag on until Iran’s economy collapses or the US enters severe recession with street-level demands to end it.
China overtaking the US economically: China is already ahead in robotics, manufacturing, solar panels, and EVs, and the US Iran intervention is partly aimed at denying China access to Iranian oil (Bessant said so on TV) and Venezuelan resources. The strategy is backfiring as China signs new Russian gas pipeline deals worth billions of cubic meters monthly, the dollar is down 0.5-1% year-to-date despite war (no safe-haven bid), and capital is flowing into Chinese yuan debt, Chinese stocks, and Brazilian equities (up 50-60% in 6-12 months).
Doomberg argues the muted oil price reaction to the largest absolute supply disruption in history (~8 million barrels/day net after demand destruction and workarounds, not the 12-15 million many cite) reflects sophisticated market mechanics: China likely stockpiled 1.8 billion barrels by secretly buying 1-1.5 million extra barrels/day last year and is now strategically dumping that glut at $100 oil, while IEA-mandated 400 million barrel reserves, Houthi payoffs by Saudi Arabia, Red Sea pipeline workarounds, and 100 million barrels stuck on tankers create a setup where oil could crash to $50 if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. He expects a “grand bargain” at the upcoming Trump-Xi Beijing meeting (25% probability as base case, but the planeload of CEOs and Putin’s Ukraine-ending signals suggest deal terms are pre-negotiated) carving up the world into three spheres: US gets Western Hemisphere, China gets Taiwan, Russia gets Ukraine on favorable terms, and the three split the Middle East and Arctic. He frames sanctions on Russia in 2014 as the actual start of World War III (ending the UN Security Council P5 framework) and sees China’s new sanctions blocking law over Hang Lee as a signal that either a major deal or major breakup is imminent.
Real supply disruption math: Doomberg pegs net oil supply loss at ~8 million barrels/day (not the 12-15 million circulating online) after accounting for 400 million barrels of IEA strategic reserves, demand destruction, fuel switching, Red Sea pipeline workarounds, Houthi non-involvement (Saudis paying them off), and China importing 3.5 million barrels/day less while releasing its estimated 1.8 billion barrel stockpile. He confesses he would have bet the over on $150 oil given this fact set and been wrong, blaming Chinese opacity.
Strait reopening crash scenario: If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, 100 million barrels sitting on tankers plus up to 300 million in storage tanks will flood front-month markets because tankers aren’t storage businesses and Middle Eastern wells need to dump constipating inventory to restart flows. Doomberg dismisses claims that Iran’s wells would “blow up” in weeks as nonsense pushed by parties wanting higher prices, citing the same false narrative used about Russian wells in 2022.
Trump-Xi grand bargain framework: Doomberg outlines (with explicit disclaimers) a three-power deal: Ukraine settled on Russia-favorable terms, US cedes Taiwan to China, three powers split the Middle East with US taking Western Hemisphere (Venezuela, Guyana, Brazil, Argentina, Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Cuba), and three split the Arctic. The planeload of CEOs accompanying Trump and Zelensky’s former press secretary appearing on Tucker Carlson signal pre-negotiated terms, though he gives only 25% probability as base case.
WWIII chronology and SCO P5 breakdown: Doomberg dates the start of World War III to 2014 with US sanctions on Russia after Crimea, arguing sanctions against UN Security Council permanent five members violate the entire post-1945 power-sharing framework. China’s new sanctions blocking law (making it illegal in China to follow US sanctions on refiner Hang Lee) just before Trump’s Beijing trip signals either imminent grand bargain or major rupture.
North American natural gas dominance: US natural gas production is 110 BCF/day (versus the 15 BCF/day Europe imported from all former Soviet states pre-Ukraine war) heading to 30 BCF/day in LNG exports by decade’s end, trading at energy-equivalent of 20/barreloilandgoingnegative(20/barrel oil and going negative ( -2.88 at Waha hub the prior day). North America’s AI revolution runs on cheap clean natural gas while China’s runs on coal, with Vaca Muerta, Venezuela, and Guyana adding to the bounty — though Europe could drill its own North Sea gas but won’t for political reasons, mirroring Texas-versus-California dynamics.
Abigail Hall argues that Austrian economics is fundamentally a methodology grounded in praxiology (the study of human action) that places hard epistemological limits on policymakers’ utopian schemes, citing Trump’s “concepts of a plan” healthcare quote as exhibit A for how political incentives produce non-answers regardless of party. She systematically dismantles common interventionist arguments by showing that markets coordinate dispersed knowledge through price signals while government interventions like 2020 baby formula price controls trigger Mises’s “dynamics of intervention” cascade where each failed policy demands additional interventions up to full nationalization. Drawing on Hayek’s “Why the Worst Get on Top,” Israel Kirzner’s entrepreneurship theory, and James Buchanan’s observation that people are “afraid to be free,” she frames foreign policy failures and domestic regulatory capture (Walmart and Amazon supporting minimum wage hikes) as predictable outputs of institutional incentive structures rather than failures of individual character.
Praxiology and methodological individualism: Austrian economics studies human action through the framework of an actor feeling uneasiness, conceptualizing a preferred state, believing they can achieve it, and taking action, applicable from drinking morning coffee to choosing college versus a profession to national policy. Hall rejects Samuelson-era empiricism that treats people like atoms or plants because humans have purposes and plans that change over time while rocks do not, though she clarifies Austrians use empirics grounded in theory rather than dismissing data entirely.
The dynamics of intervention via baby formula: During the 2020 pandemic and subsequent recall, governments imposed price ceilings around $25 per can of formula, which simultaneously reduced consumer incentive to conserve (parents stockpiling) and reduced supplier willingness to produce (lower profitability), enlarging rather than eliminating the shortage. This forces government to either admit failure or double down with cascading interventions into baby food, milk, non-dairy alternatives, and eventually nationalization of formula production, exactly modeled on Mises’s original milk-market analysis.
Subjective value versus labor theory of value: An iPhone’s value is not the sum of its component parts but the subjective valuation by consumers, just as Caravaggio’s “Calling of St. Matthew” or modern art commands millions despite minimal inputs. The NFL player versus elementary teacher pay gap reflects scarcity on the margin (few people can throw 90 mph strikes versus many who can teach kindergarten reading) combined with subjective consumer demand, not exploitation, and Hall notes the “unseen” entrepreneurial decisions about what to produce, where to sell, and at what price that labor-theory advocates ignore.
Kirzner’s stifled and superfluous discovery: Everyone is entrepreneurial in being alert to opportunities, but interventions redirect that energy in two destructive ways: stifled discovery cuts off business ventures that would have occurred, while superfluous discovery channels energy toward gaming government programs like NSF grants instead of seeking private research funding. Combined with Buchanan’s argument that being free requires high personal responsibility that many people prefer to outsource to the state acting as parent, this explains why interventionism is sticky even when it visibly fails.
Incentives over intentions in foreign policy: Quoting Hall’s mantra “intentions don’t equal outcomes,” she argues foreign policy disasters stem from institutional structures rather than bad actors, citing Lockheed Martin and Boeing’s Minuteman III modernization causing two Nunn-McCurdy breaches (billions in cost overruns) without anyone going out of business unlike a private firm $2 billion over budget. The Bruce Yandle “bootleggers and Baptists” dynamic explains why Walmart, Amazon, and CEOs Hayley Scott and Doug McMillon openly support federal minimum wage hikes that price out their smaller competitors.
John Rubino argues Trump is running out of time to deliver a favorable resolution to the Iran war before midterms where Democrats could plausibly sweep both chambers and impeach him, with $6/gallon gas being the politically decisive variable that hurts the working class far more than Republican gerrymandering can offset. He sees CPI at 3.8% as just the beginning of a 1970s-style inflation cycle the Fed cannot fight with rate hikes because leverage levels are too high, predicting Kevin Warsh was hired specifically because he committed in the job interview to slash rates and resume large-scale QE including buying 10-30 year Treasuries to suppress yields. Rubino dismisses short-term price action in gold and silver as meaningless squiggles, focusing instead on the long-term thesis that a $1 silver coin from 1960 is now worth $66, predicting triple-digit silver this year and an eventual gold standard reset at $15,000-$20,000 per ounce with gold-silver ratio collapsing toward 50.
Iran war and midterm political clock: Trump must end the Iran conflict favorably before midterms, with diesel, jet fuel, and fertilizer shortages already spreading globally and Iran deliberately stalling negotiations because they know Trump’s incentive to declare victory grows daily. Rubino theorizes a Cuban regime change just before the election as the surprise victory that “beguiled all predecessors going back to Eisenhower,” combined with Kurdish ground operations and US-funded mercenary forces taking out the Iranian regime that killed 40,000 protesters.
Gerrymandering and midterm scenarios: Republicans are redistricting to gain potentially 50 House seats but Rubino believes Democrats would still win in a landslide if the election were held today, taking the Senate too and instantly impeaching Trump on legitimate corruption charges including meme coins, defense contracts going to his sons, and family enrichment. He cites AOC making $175,000 salary but somehow becoming a multi-millionaire as evidence the “incumbency uniparty” makes safe seats into pure rent-collecting annuities.
Silver breakout and Chinese demand: Silver broke $85 this week (briefly hitting that level before pulling back to $84.78) with gold at $4,677, after the earlier spike to $120 and crash that Rubino dismisses as a meaningless squiggle, while the current gradual rise looks structurally sustainable. China is buying heavily, the Shanghai Metals Exchange is taking price-setting power from the paper markets, and a 1960s silver dollar that cost $1 face value is now worth $66, representing 6,600% gains with no counterparty risk.
Kevin Warsh and stealth QE return: Warsh got the Fed chair job by promising Trump aggressive rate cuts and Rubino expects any crisis will trigger a return to zero interest rates plus massive QE buying 10-year through 30-year Treasuries to suppress long-end yields. The 2022 episode produced near-double-digit official inflation and roughly 30% cumulative cost-of-living increases over three to four years, and the next round will be on a much bigger scale, making bonds “one of the worst imaginable investments going forward.”
Trump foreign policy wins ignored by media: Rubino credits Trump with avoiding nuclear war by ending US escalation in Ukraine (which “no longer is a big deal”), removing Maduro, and reclaiming the Panama Canal on February 23 when Panama seized both Atlantic/Caribbean and Pacific ports and ejected Chinese operators, installing a temporary caretaker. He calls these achievements “huge benefits people don’t think of the way they should” while criticizing simultaneous corruption around meme coins and defense contracts going to Trump family members.
Rick Rule argues his October 2025 call that oil was the most hated commodity has been vindicated by the 55% rally from $65 to $100, but the structural underinvestment of $2 billion per day in sustaining capital that drove that call is now exacerbated by Gulf war destruction, setting up actual physical shortages and price-rationing by 2028-2029 even if hostilities end. He has dramatically increased his cash and gold liquidity in anticipation of a 2008-style margin-clerk-driven crash where good and bad companies fall together (Exxon could easily drop from $175 to $80-90), positioning to deploy capital into wreckage while maintaining high-quality oil positions like Canadian Natural Resources, Tourmaline, Birchcliff, and Exxon for the 2029 thesis. He predicts the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power over 10 years mirroring the 1970s, taking gold to $12,000-$15,000 nominal with potential overshoot toward Deutsche Bank’s $8,000 by 2031 target, while tokenized gold backed by depository receipts (with the World Gold Council working on a 100%-backed product) will return gold to its dual role as both store of value and medium of exchange within two to three years.
Vindicated oil call and the 2028-2029 supply cliff: Rule’s October recommendation when WTI was in the mid-$60s has produced a 55% rally to roughly $100-$102, but he warns the war has exacerbated the structural $2 billion daily underinvestment because Iranians, Saudis, and UAE producers cannot make sustaining capital investments during conflict and must also rebuild destroyed processing and transmission facilities. If the Gulf situation does not resolve quickly, floating inventories and strategic petroleum reserves will deplete, forcing actual price-rationing especially for energy-short Pacific Rim economies.
Building dry powder for a 2008-style liquidity crisis: Rule has eliminated all bond exposure except Treasuries maturing under 18 months and his investment in Battle Bank, exiting high-yield and corporate credit entirely, holding short-term USD liquidity plus bullion as dry powder. He explicitly acknowledges Exxon could fall from $175-$180 to $80-$90 in a margin-clerk panic but is willing to ride high-quality positions through because by 2029 they will trade at substantial premiums to today’s prices.
Uranium as the post-war energy security play: Rule sees Kazakh-style political risk aside, Cameco is the Exxon Mobil of uranium and the only easy retail path beyond the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (where Rule is the largest shareholder), with the strategic case mirroring Japan’s and France’s post-1973 nuclear buildouts. A small Japanese warehouse can store 5 years of national power supply in uranium versus impossible storage requirements for equivalent oil or coal, and nuclear plant financing now requires term-market uranium contracts to substantially amortize loans.
Gold at $15,000 within a decade and the tokenization revolution: Rule predicts gold maintains nominal purchasing power as the dollar loses 75% over 10 years, implying $12,000-$15,000 gold with potential overshoot toward the 1970s pattern (gold ran 26-fold when the dollar lost 75%). The World Gold Council is building blockchain-tokenized gold with 100% physical backing (not fractional) via depository receipts, while Tether is already the largest non-central-bank gold buyer despite lacking audited financials, solving gold’s friction and fractionalization problems within 2-3 years.
UAE leaves OPEC and gold becomes top US export: The UAE’s exit after nearly 60 years (it controlled roughly a quarter of OPEC spare capacity) reflects its lower fiscal breakeven, diversified economy, and Fujairah pipeline bypass of the Strait, and Rule notes “any suggestion of OPEC solidarity was a non-starter once the rockets started flying.” Meanwhile non-monetary gold was the single largest US export in March 2026 and the top export in five of the last six months, doubling oil and aircraft engine exports as central banks repatriate (India brought home 100+ tons, France similarly), driven by the weaponization of the dollar and the $300 billion seizure of Russian Treasury assets that taught every foreign regime to disintermediate out of dollar-denominated reserves.
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