🏦A potential repo market crisis could trigger a banking crisis, as banks unwind trades dependent on repo funding, with basis trades now twice the size of 2019 levels, potentially causing contagion across markets.
Gold and silver prices are reacting to monetary instability, with gold near all-time highs and silver breaking above $30 into the $33-34 range, while bullion bank shorts are at record levels.
Physical silver premiums at 6-7% for junk silver indicate moderate demand without a bubble, contrasting with 2011 when premiums briefly fell below zero.
The next round of quantitative easing may follow a repo crisis, potentially requiring the Fed to cut rates by 100 basis points overnight, driving retail demand for gold and silver as concerns about the dollar’s value increase.
Aligning geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, China, and Russia create potential for a major conflict, which could impact financial markets and drive investors towards precious metals for safety.
The US economy added only 12,000 jobs in October 2022, the weakest since 2020, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, signaling potential underlying weaknesses despite the Fed’s 50-basis-point rate cut in June 2022.
The US faces a debt crisis with $35.7 trillion in debt and a 28-year high interest expense of $850 billion in 2022 alone, making economic growth mathematically impossible due to excess leverage and interest expense.
Central banks are replacing US Treasuries with physical gold as a store of value and reserve asset, with the BIS designating gold as a tier one asset alongside US Treasuries in 2022.
Countries like China and Japan are selling Treasuries and buying gold at record levels since 2014, leading to a seismic shift away from the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
The US has hyperinflated the dollar by creating trillions to support the bond market, stealing purchasing power from 401ks and stocks, with 100% of tax receipts going towards interest on government expenses and entitlements.
The US is transitioning from a monopolar American post-Bretton Woods hegemony to a multipolar, dysfunctional world, with major systemic problems in China’s economy and America’s inability to dictate policy or maintain supremacy.
The upcoming US election is expected to lead to currency debasement to meet pre-election promises, causing inflation and social unrest, with half the country likely to be furious regardless of the winner.
Gold is emerging as a strategic reserve asset that will benefit from the dollar’s decline, as the US faces unsustainable debt, ineffective leadership, and increasing polarization, tension, and division among its population.
In the past year, gold rose 30.7% and silver 40.4% in AUD, outperforming 5% bank interest, driven by currency devaluation rather than intrinsic value increase.
Central banks and wealth managers in Asia are fleeing the dollar into gold and silver due to the US’s fearful debt trap and lack of political solution.
Trump’s potential presidency is causing uncertainty abroad, driving gold prices up as foreigners fear his unpredictability and potential for a trade war.
The BRICS conference in November 2024 will discuss changes in money and economics, featuring speakers like Alasdair Macleod and Lynette Zang.
The US is in a debt trap with unprecedented levels, where raising interest rates to reduce debt could crash the economy due to zombie businesses unable to afford higher rates.
Fiat currencies historically always fail, leading governments to devalue or print more money to delay collapse, but raising taxes could trigger a currency collapse.
Russia’s Central Bank plans to purchase silver as a reserve asset, potentially causing a shortage of above-ground supplies and driving prices higher in both short and long term.
BRICS nations are working on a trade settlement currency and Swifts alternative, while introducing “partner status” for gradual assimilation into a common trade approach.
The Federal Reserve, established in 1913, is a private central bank masquerading as a public institution, controlling the money supply and asset distribution through debt and war.
Fractional reserve banking allows banks to lend money they don’t have, creating insolvent banks and moral hazard, leading to credit bubbles, crashes, and collateral theft.
The Federal Reserve’s money printing experiment has resulted in the dollar losing 99.83% of its value since 1913, creating the largest wealth divide in history.
The War of 1812 was fought against central banks, with the First Bank of the United States charter expiring, while Andrew Jackson vetoed the Second Bank of the United States in 1837.
The Rothschild family took control of the Bank of England after the Battle of Waterloo in the early 1800s, using false information to manipulate markets and acquire assets at low prices.
The Treaty of Versailles after World War I imposed harsh reparations on Germany, leading to hyperinflation, moral decay, and the eventual rise of totalitarianism.
The 2007 financial crisis and 2020 COVID-19 pandemic led to the printing of $9 trillion in 2020, expanding the global money supply from $100 trillion to $130 trillion in just 4 years.
Bitcoin is a trustless infrastructure that removes friction and time from transactions, increasing capital efficiency and the velocity of money.
Bitcoin holds purchasing power over time and moves it across space at the speed of light, making it ideal for international transactions and a potential solution to central banking issues.
Andrew Jackson, a committed Christian and supporter of the Constitutional Republic, resisted central banks, arguing they were unconstitutional and bent government acts to their selfish purposes.
The principles of natural law and inviolable property established in Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations (1776) and the Magna Carta (1215) were corrupted by central banking, as understood by historical figures like Madison, Jefferson, and Adams.
The economics profession has become a “handmaiden of government”, with many economists acting as apologists who tailor theories to justify politicians’ power grabs and policies.
The Federal Reserve has shifted from promoting free market principles to pursuing socialist policies like addressing systemic racism and equity, effectively becoming a “Democrat Party think tank”.
Mainstream economics textbooks promote the “Nirvana fallacy” by teaching unrealistic models like perfect competition, leading to unjustified criticism of capitalism and support for government intervention.
The “multiplier effect”, a Keynesian superstition promoted in Paul Samuelson’s textbook, falsely claims that $1 billion in government spending can increase GDP by $1.5-2 billion, encouraging excessive taxation.
The Austrian School critiques mainstream economics’ “nonsense” and “propaganda”, with the Mises Institute playing a crucial role in promoting true economics as advocated by Murray Rothbard.
BRICS, a growing alliance of 9 countries including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, is challenging Western hegemony and the dollar’s privilege as the world reserve currency, with 47 countries expressing interest and 26 formally applying to join.
BRICS countries are employing a three-pronged approach to accumulate commodities: depleting Western exchange stockpiles, growing regional exchanges (Shanghai Metals exchange volume up 5600% in 6 months), and directly buying raw, unrefined gold and silver from Latin American miners.
BRICS Pay and BRICS Clear initiatives aim to enable regional economic independence by providing cross-border payment solutions outside the dollar-dominated SWIFT system, allowing countries to settle surplus currencies in gold.
BRICS Pay is a retail app for transactions without currency conversion, while BRICS Clear is a proposed cross-border settlement system for international trade between BRICS countries, reducing reliance on the US dollar.
BRICS countries are accumulating gold at an unprecedented rate, with Poland adding 18.7 tons, India 14.7 tons, and Turkey 7.5 tons, while Russia is accumulating gold daily and planning to accumulate silver, platinum, and palladium.
Poland’s central bank is buying gold to prepare for potential global financial system collapse, citing the need to own assets when records are stored electronically and power is shut off.
The Lindsay, Oklahoma bank failure sets a precedent for bail-ins, where 50% of $7 million in uninsured deposits were lost, indicating a potential trajectory for future bank failures.
The money market fund crisis could lead to gating, with record amounts of $1 trillion withdrawn in the past year, potentially causing financial instability.
The BRICS nations are forming an economic alliance to challenge US dollar dominance, potentially leading to a gold price surge to $4,000-$4,500 per ounce by 2025 if their economies grow strongly.
BRICS controls 40% of the world’s GDP, population, and productive capacity, potentially causing a balkanized trade system with separate settlement systems.
The BRICS settlement currency is an evolution of OPEC, acting as a price fixing cartel to defend itself against US dollar dominance.
The release of Erdan, the head of the real Kurdish leadership, from prison in Turkey could bring Kurds into Turkish politics, signaling Turkey’s stance against Kurdish blackmail.
The US is backing SDF Kurds in Syria to control oil wells east of the Euphrates, while Russians allow Syrian and Iraqi militia forces to attack Kurdish-American positions.
The Fed has $81,335 tons of gold on its balance sheet at $4,222/oz, worth $700 billion, which could be used to restore confidence in the US fiscal position.
In 2024, if Trump wins in a landslide, banks may add to silver shorts to suppress the price, potentially creating a time bomb to take them down after the election.
The British Remnant aims to destroy the US and balkanize Russia, while Davos seeks to rule a post-US nation-state world order, with differing ideas on leadership.
The global economy shows uneven growth, with the US experiencing 2% GDP growth while China’s growth slows but continues, leading to record stock markets and profits nearly doubling in 2024 compared to 2023.
Wealth inequality in the US has intensified, with the top 1% holding 35% of wealth and the bottom 90% holding 25%, exacerbated by a K-shaped recovery post-COVID.
The world is becoming multipolar, with BRICS nations increasing trade among themselves in their own currencies to 85%, reducing the US dollar’s reserve currency share from over 70% to under 60%.
The US is focusing on “friend shoring” by relocating supply chains to countries like Mexico to increase resilience and reduce dependence on distant nations.
Central banks’ monetary policies and fiscal stimulus have created a debt bubble, with US debt increasing 7 times since the financial crisis and the Fed providing $9 trillion to the banking system.
The asset management industry, including private equity and ETFs, has grown to rival the largest banks in asset size, giving them significant influence over policy and decision-making.
Real assets like gold, silver, copper, and uranium are attractive investments due to their hard asset nature and increasing demand for alternative energy and technology.
Brazil stands out as an investment opportunity due to its net positive energy outlook, focusing on solar, wind, hydro, and data centers, attracting major corporations and financial technology companies.
The Fed’s proactive approach to crisis management includes changing laws, ignoring existing ones, and implementing unprecedented measures like seizing banks and bailing out deposits beyond FDIC limits, demonstrating there is no rule of law during financial crises.
The US dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency stems from the 1944 Bretton Woods system, with all other currencies essentially functioning as derivatives of the dollar, allowing the US to maintain a strong currency despite growing national debt.
Zombie companies with profits less than interest expenses face increased risk of default as interest rates rise, potentially leading to bank failures due to loan losses and the duration mismatch between long-term loans and short-term deposits.
A true gold standard involves people depositing gold, earning interest on it in gold, and using it as a medium of exchange and unit of account, leading to productive enterprises setting gold prices and paying gold wages.
The fundamental price model for gold and silver, which calculates prices if all futures speculation were to unwind, helps determine market tension and desired prices, according to Keith Weiner of the Gold Standard Institute.
The basis and lease rate are crucial indicators of gold and silver’s abundance or scarcity, with higher basis indicating more abundant metal and higher lease rates reflecting more expensive, scarcer metal.
Challenging the quantity theory of money, Weiner argues that gold mining and honest credit have different causes and effects than fiat currency expansion, with credit in a gold standard leading to increased production rather than inflation.
To transition to a gold-based system, offering interest on gold and allowing debtors to redeem paper debt for gold could create a market for determining the exchange value of paper bonds for gold bonds.
Paying interest on gold and silver is growing exponentially, potentially leading to a natural emergence of a gold standard as more people choose to put their gold to work earning interest.
Opting out of currency devaluation requires offering alternatives, as people will choose honest money over devaluation when given the choice, acting in their own self-interest regarding their finances.
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