The “everything bubble” is a fiat currency bubble encompassing bad debt in junk bonds, tech stocks, real estate, and government bonds, with potential for a multi-trillion dollar bailout if it collapses.
Commercial real estate faces a big problem due to high interest rates, remote work, and insufficient cash flow, resulting in unrealized losses of hundreds of billions and potential bank runs.
Central banks are aggressively buying gold to protect against dollar weaponization and potential currency crises, acquiring tons despite being price-insensitive.
Silver is both an industrial metal with high demand in solar panels and AI data centers, and a monetary metal useful in currency crises, with a thinly traded market prone to shortages and price spikes.
The AI Revolution and solar sector are driving silver demand, with solar already accounting for 1/3 to 1/4 of overall industrial demand, leading to significant deficits.
Real assets like gold, silver, farmland, and rental properties are crucial for wealth protection during currency crises, as they have real value and are not easily printed.
In a recession leading to an equities bear market, gold and silver could drop 30-50%, but could soar if governments inflate currencies to stimulate the economy.
Diversification across different geographies and asset classes is essential for protecting wealth against improbable events and mitigating risks in uncertain economic times.
Gold has outperformed major stock indices over the past 52 years, appreciating 47.5 times compared to the Dow Jones (36 times) and S&P 500 (44 times).
Historically, a 20% cash holding with half for emergencies and half in precious metals was typical investment advice after the 1971 gold standard removal.
John Maynard Keynes, the father of Keynesian economics, labeled gold a “barbarous relic” to discredit its use as money and the constraints it placed on government spending.
Prominent investors like Warren Buffett and financial advisors like Dave Ramsey have criticized gold as a “terrible investment” due to its lack of yield.
Murray Rothbard’s book “What Has Government Done to Our Money?” argues that gold, the most advanced form of money for thousands of years, was forcibly removed from this role by the state.
The Fed’s 50 basis point cut to the target federal funds rate, bringing it to 5.0% in March 2020, marks the largest cut since the COVID-19 pandemic and signals potential economic trouble ahead.
50+ basis point cuts in the target rate have historically preceded recessions and rising unemployment within a few months, as evidenced in the late 1980s, 2001, and 2007.
Despite Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s upbeat tone, a 50+ basis point cut is historically unusual during strong economic conditions, contradicting his statement that the economy is in “great shape.”
The August 2023 Beige Book reveals a bleak economic picture, with only 3 out of 12 Fed districts reporting growth, while 5 districts reported economic decline or slight decline.
Powell’s claim that the 50bp rate cut will lead to sustained low unemployment lacks historical precedent, as similar cuts have typically preceded recessions rather than maintaining low unemployment.
The Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut, the largest since 2008, signals economic concern despite Powell framing it as strength, moving from 5.5% to 4.75% with rates still considered too high at 4.75-4.5% to combat inflation.
The Fed’s leaked rate cut to a Wall Street Journal reporter changed market expectations from a 25 to 50 basis point cut, revealing a system where crucial information is communicated through a single individual.
The 50 basis point rate cut will take quarters to a year to significantly impact the economy due to the lag effect, with higher rates continuing to slow economic activity.
The rate cut is unlikely to significantly affect housing and corporate debt refinancing until rates approach 2.5-3%, as most homeowners and companies are locked into low rates.
In a bull steepening period, with the yield curve positively sloped for the first time in over 2 years, stocks and many asset classes tend to perform poorly, while high-grade bonds and municipals typically hold up better.
Bonds, often misunderstood due to their simple cash flows and math, require careful consideration of risk and rewards, while stocks are more speculative with valuation, entrepreneurial, and market risks.
The rate cut may lead to a housing market correction, particularly at the higher end, potentially causing prices to fall as transaction volume and inventory increase.
Inflation PTSD causes investors to fear inflation despite the current 2.5% rate, resulting in slower reactions to falling bond yields and potentially impacting investment decisions.
The “pandemic-famine-war triangle of death” is a recurring historical pattern, mirroring the Bible’s four horsemen of the apocalypse: war, famine, death, and possibly authoritarianism or pestilence.
China’s expanding global train network is causing economic disruption in Thailand through cheap imports, prompting concerns from the Thai government.
The Straits of Malacca, a crucial trade route and military chokepoint, is being bypassed by a new China-Thailand railway connecting the Andaman Sea to the Gulf of Thailand.
The BASF chemical plant in Germany is identified as a critical infrastructure target, with its potential disruption through Nord Stream sabotage potentially crippling global chemical production for years.
The speaker suggests the United States might target Nord Stream to prevent Germany’s rise, despite WWIII risks, citing a history of destabilizing Europe and Russia.
The speaker warns of a perceived invasion of the US through the Darien Gap in Panama, with gangs from Venezuela, Haiti, and other countries allegedly entering unchecked.
The speaker claims Han Chinese desire global dominance, aiming to eliminate non-Han Chinese, including Hong Kongers speaking Cantonese or Fujian dialects, promoting only Mandarin as “Chinese”.
According to the speaker, Taiwan was never part of China, with even the Ming Dynasty’s presence limited to using it as a trading place rather than an integral territory.
Commodity prices reached extreme undervaluation relative to equities in 1929, 1969, 1999, and 2020, with the current market being the most extreme in a 150-year data set.
The classic commodity cycle involves money flowing out, causing depletion and tightening, leading to deficits and massive price increases as capital returns, reflecting the cyclical nature of commodity markets.
Kazatprom’s reduced 2025 uranium production guidance from 78-79 million pounds to 66 million pounds will exacerbate the structural deficit in the uranium market, indicating supply issues in 2026.
The uranium market faces a structural deficit for 3+ years, with inventories expected to be exhausted between 2021-2023, and Kazakhstan experiencing bottlenecks and acid shortages at new deposits.
US natural gas production is declining sharply, down 5% in 2023, with major shale basins like Marcellus and Permanian expected to roll over in 2024, following the pattern of earlier peaks in Eagleford (2015) and Bachan (2020).
Gold stocks are at historically low valuations, with big producing companies cheap based on price to net asset value and discounted cash flow models, while exploration companies with promising projects are the most undervalued.
Silver typically lags behind gold in bull markets, eventually catching up with a 150-175% move, a pattern that has repeated throughout history.
Institutional investors, particularly hedge funds, are driving uranium investment, with performance pressure from allocators causing rapid changes in capital allocation, while retail investors’ emotional reactions and actual capital contribution remain unclear.
Congressman Thomas Massie exposes political theater in Congress, describing it as “Groundhog Day” with both parties engaging in posturing, fake fighting, and censorship through theatrical performances that follow the same plot annually.
The CR (Continuing Resolution) and Omnibus bills consistently maintain or increase spending, never cutting costs, while expanding the welfare state (Democrats) and military-industrial complex (Republicans).
Massie reveals lies and overreach by federal agencies including the CDC, FDA, ATF, DOJ, FBI, NSA, and USDA, targeting citizens and livestock, with Democrats supporting a totalitarian state while Republicans pretend to oppose these actions.
The 6-month CR strategy creates an artificial crisis next spring, using a 1% cut threat as a “bright shiny object” to distract from continued funding of exposed issues and “kick the can down the road”.
Massie criticizes Republicans for not even attempting to address the “t-ball” 1% cut threat, instead opting for a 6-month CR to avoid potential spending reductions and set up another crisis scenario regardless of election outcomes.
Silver faces critical resistance at $32, with a break potentially leading to $35, and a subsequent breakout could drive prices to $45 by early 2025.
The average of the 4 best cyclical bull moves suggests a $45 target in 13 months, with the overall bullish trend expected to continue for the next 2-3 years.
The monthly chart shows bullish momentum, with each month closing above support despite intra-month dips, and the current move likely to close around $31 or higher.
A quarterly close above $32 would be the third highest ever, signaling potential for a move to $50 without significant corrections.
Silver’s 1980 parabolic move resulted in two monthly closes at $36, establishing the $35-36 range as significant long-term resistance for future price action.
The market’s expectation of a full percentage point interest rate cut over the next year is an unprecedented signal since 1962, historically followed by violent stock market declines and recessions.
In all four previous instances of this signal, a recession materialized in the United States, leading to significant stock market drops.
The Federal Reserve typically lowers interest rates aggressively during periods of economic weakening, suggesting the current signal could indicate preparation for a severe economic recession.
Despite declining inflation expectations, the stock market has continued to rise, implying this signal may not be a short-term warning for equities.
According to data since 1962, the stock market’s performance following Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has historically been negative, with violent declines and recessions closely following these signals.
Mainstream media outlets like MSNBC perpetuate extreme and divisive views by labeling Trump supporters as “narcissists” and “psychopaths,” highlighting concerns about their influence on public opinion.
Bill Maher’s evolving political stance, from vocal Democrat to questioning pandemic narratives and endless wars, demonstrates how even prominent figures can shift perspectives over time.
The US, UK, and Canada’s joint diplomatic campaign to censor Russian media globally raises significant concerns about freedom of expression and the potential for widespread censorship.
Treating RT’s activities as equivalent to Russian intelligence operations by Western allies poses a threat to media diversity and freedom of information.
The ongoing adversarial attitude towards Russia, including allowing NATO missile strikes deeper into their territory and censoring media, represents a dangerous escalation in international tensions.
Cut through the clutter and mainstream media noise. Get free, concise dispatches on vital news, videos and opinions. Delivered to Your email inbox daily. You’ll never miss a critical story, guaranteed.