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Top Three Videos – August 1, 2023

Dr. Doom: Stay Away From the 'Woke Empire' as U.S. Dollar Heads Toward Worthless Currency Status
Stansberry Research

Marc Faber (Dr. Doom)  warns of an impending stock market shake-up and advised to move their money within 90 days, with a focus on the US dollar’s decline, the rise of China, and the need to diversify investments outside of the US dollar block.

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • “Dr. Doom warns about the potential consequences of the current economic situation.”
  • “Tax increases have a very negative impact on the economy because it hits the people that consume the most” – Dr. Doom argues that tax increases primarily affect the middle and lower classes, while the super rich find ways to avoid taxation.
  • “The U.S will have to inflate also because of the unfunded liabilities and therefore my view is that although the inflation figures may look better for the next few months in the long run I think the inflation figures and interest rates will exceed the peak we had in 1980-81 when the 10 years Treasury was yielding more than 15 percent.”
  • “If you bail out everyone, you will end up with some sort of a fascist system or kind of a crony capitalistic system which is happening in the Western World.”
  • “The US dollar is heading towards worthless currency status.”
  • “This balance of economic power has shifted into emerging economies.”
  • “It’s a big risk to hold all your assets in US dollars because I think that the US dollar will become over time a worthless currency.”
  • “The end of the US dollar has been predicted since 1963, but the main change now that could see its death is the rise of China as a different landscape.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 Investors are warned of an impending stock market shake-up and advised to move their money within 90 days, with Dr. Mark Faber discussing current headlines and sharing his insights on the Daniela Cambodia show.
    • Wall Street veteran Mark Chaikin warns investors of an upcoming historic stock market shake-up that could lead to devastating losses, urging them to move their money within 90 days and offering a free report with insights on a stock that could be impacted.
    • Dr. Mark Faber, a renowned economist, discusses current headlines and shares his specific take on them in an interview with Daniela Cambone on the Daniela Cambodia show.
  • 02:15 The US is heading towards high inflation and interest rates due to unfunded liabilities and fiscal deficits, with the only option being to inflate the currency, which disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes and is detrimental to the economy.
    • The US is unlikely to reduce its debt through spending cuts or tax increases, so the only option is to inflate the currency, which disproportionately affects the middle and lower classes and is ultimately detrimental to the economy.
    • Faber predicts that the US will experience high inflation and interest rates exceeding the peak of 1980-81 due to unfunded liabilities, fiscal deficits, and the need for money printing to finance government debt.
    • Government agencies and officials, including the Federal Reserve, lie to the public in order to maintain the financial market and prevent panic, even if it means printing more money.
  • 07:33 Inflation is hurting ordinary people as real incomes decrease, while the European Central Bank’s irresponsible monetary policies have led to rising inflation and interest rates, and Switzerland’s banking system is facing issues with only two large banks.
    • Inflation is a tax on ordinary people, as real incomes have been decreasing while GDP is reported to be increasing, and the European Central Bank will be requesting weekly liquidity data from banks to monitor their ability to handle potential shocks as interest rates rise.
    • The rise in inflation and interest rates in Europe is due to the irresponsible monetary policies of the European Central Bank, which printed more money than the United States and kept interest rates artificially low and negative, a situation that has never happened before in history.
    • Competition is healthy in the banking system, and too many banks can lead to a crony capitalist system, as seen in the Western World, but in Switzerland, there are only two large banks, one of which has failed and now operates like a government bank.
  • 12:36 Faber warns that the US dollar is becoming worthless due to inflation and advises investors to move their money into other countries’ assets, while emphasizing the rise of China as a global economic power.
    • Faber believes it is desirable for the world to have multiple participants in global economic affairs and politics, and questions the credibility and potential threat of a gold-backed currency being prepared by the BRICS.
    • Faber believes that the global currency system should be phased out, with transactions occurring in local currencies, as the balance of economic power has shifted to emerging economies like China.
    • China’s rise as a global economic power and the decline of the US as the number one economic power is a reality that American politicians struggle to accept.
    • Investors should consider moving their money out of US dollars and investing in other countries’ stocks, funds, commodities, and real estate, as the US dollar is heading towards becoming a worthless currency due to inflation, and this includes close allies and vassal states of the US like Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand.
  • 19:03 Investing in Asia may be safer as World War III could break out between China, the US, and Russia, while the US dollar’s decline is due to China’s rise and competition for influence in Southeast Asian countries.
    • Investing in Asia may be a safer option as the speaker believes that World War III could potentially break out between China, the US, and Russia, making Central and Latin America a relatively safe region.
    • The main reason for the potential death of the US dollar as a global currency is the changing landscape, particularly with the rise of China.
    • The diminished prestige of the US is evident in Thailand, where a candidate educated in England and at Harvard won the most votes but was rumored to be financed by the US, as China and the US compete for influence in Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand.
  • 23:53 Faber criticizes the democratic system and prefers Trump over Biden, while also mentioning their preference for working at night instead of sleeping.
    • Faber expresses doubts about the democratic system and believes that the current presidential candidates are a reflection of its failure, with a preference for Trump over Biden due to the management of certain states.
    • Faber is not kept up at night by anything, except for enjoying a good beer, and they work during the night instead of sleeping.
  • 27:32 Be cautious of government control and incompetence, protect privacy by avoiding sharing personal achievements on social media, diversify investments outside of the US dollar block, consider cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin but be cautious of potential abuse and lack of transparency.
    • Faber expresses concern about the possibility of losing access to assets and money due to government control and incompetence.
    • Be cautious about sharing personal achievements on social media, as it is important to protect oneself and maintain privacy.
    • Invest in jurisdictions outside of the US dollar block, such as Hong Kong, China, and Latin America, as a diversification strategy to avoid losing money in the future.
    • Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are a new type of currency that emerged due to excessive money printing by the Federal Reserve, and while they may have practical applications, there are also dangers involved such as potential abuse by central banks and lack of transparency, so it is important to be cautious and consider other investments like precious metals.
  • 33:25 The opinions expressed in this video are solely those of the contributor and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Stansbury research, its parent company, or affiliates.

The REAL Reason The Yield Curve Is Inverted
Rebel Capitalist

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The connection between the yield curve inversion and the outbreak of a virus in China raises questions about the potential impact on the global economy.
  • Business leaders at Davos privately raised concerns about the virus with Trump, indicating that there may have been early awareness of the potential impact of COVID-19.
  • These billionaires strategically invest in treasuries and the long end of the yield curve during times of crisis, indicating their anticipation of economic downturns.
  • George Gammon suggests that the repo spike in September 2019 cannot fully explain the maximum inversion of the yield curve that occurred prior to it.
  • Challenging the assumption that the repo spike happened out of nowhere, suggesting that it may have been a result of the Intel that insiders received from Wuhan.
  • The yield curve inversion has a 100 percent hit rate since the 1950s because the bond market or the people impacting it have insider information, making them correct almost all the time.

Transcript Summary:

The key idea of the video is that the inverted yield curve may be a result of insiders having information about the COVID-19 pandemic before it became public knowledge, leading to trading decisions and the buying of treasuries.

  • 00:00 The yield curve is currently inverted, and the speaker suggests that there may be a simple and sinister reason for this, connecting it to the outbreak of a virus in China.
  • 01:34 Paul Tudor Jones, a well-known investor, had insider information about the COVID-19 pandemic before it became public knowledge, which influenced his trading decisions.
  • 03:47 Senator Burr, who had access to insider information about the pandemic, sold a significant amount of his stock, raising questions about his actions.
  • 05:51 Mega billionaires like Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Gates, and George Soros are selling shares and buying treasuries, indicating that they have insider information and are making trades based on it, especially during times of crisis.
    • In January-February 2020, a person sold most of their shares and bought 1.2 million treasuries, using 76% of their total holdings, which demonstrates that individuals like Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Gates, and George Soros are doing the same.
    • Mega billionaires receive insider information and make trades based on it, particularly in times of crisis, such as buying treasuries and the long end of the yield curve.
  • 08:30 The GOP report suggests that the Wuhan military games in October 2019 were a super spreader event, indicating that the virus may have been circulating prior to that, possibly leaked from a lab in late August to early September.
  • 10:14 The yield curve inverted in late August to early September 2019, prompting the Federal Reserve to start dropping rates, despite the employment rate remaining stable, leading to speculation about the reasons behind the inversion.
  • 12:29 The yield curve inverted due to insiders receiving information from Wuhan, prompting them to buy treasuries and causing the repo spike.
  • 14:22 The yield curve inverts because insiders in the bond market have almost perfect information, leading to a 100% accuracy rate since the 1950s.

They Can't Stop the Crash as an All-Out Panic Begins (And Why We’re Next)
Steven Van Metre

Quick Summary Bullets:

  • The Chinese economy is experiencing a major crash, and the impact is expected to reach the United States.
  • China’s risk of prolonged falling prices could have a detrimental effect on global economies, impacting corporate profits, consumer spending, and employment.
  • Deflation can have serious repercussions for the rest of the world, particularly on corporate profits.
  • The combination of job loss, increased prices, and higher debt levels leads to less money available for discretionary spending, impacting both the economy and inflation.
  • The model used in the CTA reports identified a quadruple bottom pattern and triggered a trade with over a two percent upside potential, proving its worth as a trading tool.
  • China’s increasing mortgage easing measures in big cities suggest a growing panic and attempt to stimulate the economy amidst signs of deflation.
  • The negative year-on-year rate change in new loans signifies a potential all-out panic, as it indicates a decrease in the creation of new money and a higher rate of loan repayment.
  • “What’s happening in China is coming to the U.S in not too distant future.”

Transcript Summary:

  • 00:00 China’s economy is in crisis as factory activity contracts, potentially impacting the US economy, with stagnant manufacturing and slowing services sectors indicating potential problems.
    • China’s economy is in a major crisis as factory activity continues to contract, and this will likely have a negative impact on the US economy as well.
    • The purchasing managers index for the Chinese manufacturing sector has shown slight contractions, indicating that the sector is stagnant and not showing any significant growth.
    • China’s manufacturing sector is stagnant and the services sector is slowing down, indicating potential problems in the economy.
  • 03:13 China’s declining demand for imports suggests a global economic decline, as their economic recovery slows down due to insufficient domestic demand, leading to potential unemployment and dire circumstances in both manufacturing and services sectors.
    • China’s decreasing demand for imports, including from the US, indicates a potential decline in the global economy.
    • China’s economic recovery is slowing down due to insufficient domestic demand, difficulties in enterprise operations, hidden risks, and a grim external environment, leading to a potential increase in unemployment rates, particularly among the youth.
    • The Chinese economy is experiencing a slowdown in both the manufacturing and services sectors, indicating potential dire circumstances.
  • 06:02 China’s potential deflation could lead to decreased corporate profits, reduced consumer spending, and increased unemployment, impacting global economies through decreased demand for raw materials and consumer goods.
    • China’s potential prolonged spell of falling prices could lead to decreased corporate profits, reduced consumer spending, and increased unemployment, while also impacting global economies through decreased demand for raw materials and consumer goods.
    • China’s potential deflation could have serious global repercussions, particularly on corporate profits, as shown by a comparison of U.S. data.
    • During periods of disinflation and deflation, corporate profits decrease and retail sales slow down, indicating that investors may be on the wrong side of the trade.
  • 08:41 Deflation leads to rising unemployment and decreased discretionary spending, raising concerns about the effectiveness of policy tools in preventing deflation and the potential impact of deflation in China on global inflation.
    • Deflation leads to rising unemployment, which results in less discretionary spending and a decrease in the economy and inflation.
    • The concern is whether policy tools can effectively prevent deflation, as excessive stimulus adds to debt levels and may not yield the desired results, while deflation in China could impact global inflation except for trading accounts.
  • 10:44 China’s deflationary impact on the US is evident as Chinese producer prices decline, leading to a decrease in US consumer prices, and overstimulation of China’s economy may be ineffective.
    • The speaker discusses a quadruple bottom pattern in the market and how their model, which analyzes machine positioning and historical data, identified a late but still profitable trade opportunity with potential for further gains.
    • On June 26, the algorithm triggered a 35 percent long position, which held for almost 20 trading days, and on July 13, the slower algorithm indicated that the machines were buying, resulting in a small but positive trade.
    • China’s deflationary impact on the rest of the world, particularly the US, is evident as Chinese producer prices continue to decline, leading to a decrease in US consumer prices, and while China may attempt to stimulate their economy, overstimulation may render it ineffective.
  • 13:30 China is taking measures to stimulate its struggling property sector by implementing urban redevelopment projects and easing home buying restrictions, potentially leading to increased spending and addressing the decrease in mortgage amounts.
    • Inflation is a problem in America and China is considering scrapping rules that disqualify people who have had a mortgage from being considered first-time home buyers, which could lead to more spending.
    • China is implementing urban redevelopment projects and easing home buying restrictions in order to stimulate the property sector, which is facing worsening problems as indicated by a decrease in the total amount of mortgages.
  • 15:08 The decrease in new loans and increase in loan repayments suggests a negative outlook for the debt-based economy, with banks slowing down and consumer prices and the housing market shrinking.
    • The outstanding amount of individual mortgages has decreased, indicating a drop in new loans being created and more people paying down their loans, which is a negative sign for a debt-based economy.
    • Banks following a slowdown indicates a deflationary period, leading to a decrease in consumer prices and a shrinking housing market, highlighting the need for constant expansion of new debt in a debt-based system.
  • 17:28 Chinese government measures to stimulate economic recovery in the light industry sector are not enough to address the decreasing global demand, potentially leading to a deflationary crisis in the US.
    • Chinese government agencies have implemented measures to address the economic recovery, particularly in the light industry sector, as it is challenging to stimulate demand through policies alone.
    • Residents are unwilling to spend, governments are not providing subsidies, and as a result, global demand is decreasing, leading to a potential deflationary crisis in the US.

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